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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #161
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:06am Jun 30, 2013 2:06am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} They definately work, but the use of them is some what tricky, I trade off a High and Low SMA's, gives a range to work off rather than a single exact number. 100sma and 900sma M1, ( well with M5 so 20 and 180 ) are my prefered MA's at the moment.
You've hawked them for years but let's get real your account is just as small if not smaller than it ever was. Price moves because at any given price there is a constant exchange going on between buyers and sellers, and once buyers are exhausted at a price level price has nowhere to go but down. And vice versa for when sellers are exhausted, price goes up. What else is it supposed to do? Understanding what this looks like on a chart where buyers outnumber sellers and sellers outnumber buyers heavily is key to becoming profitable. Your moving averages tell you all about the past moves - and that's all well and good, because without past data there really isn't much basis for forecasting. But they won't give you the information needed to make reliable low risk high reward trading decisions, sorry. In the end with an infinite stack of cash trying to trade MAs will give you break-even with nothing else adding to costs (law of averages), but with broker fees and interest you're going to find yourself losing.
  • #162
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:12am Jun 30, 2013 2:12am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} You've hawked them for years but let's get real your account is just as small if not smaller than it ever was. Price moves because at any given price there is a constant exchange going on between buyers and sellers, and once buyers are exhausted at a price level price has nowhere to go but down. And vice versa for when sellers are exhausted, price goes up. What else is it supposed to do? Your moving averages tell you all about the past moves - and that's all well and good, because without past data there really isn't much basis for forecasting....

I've been BE trader for years, still the same money in the account ( I moved it when I went to a Mini ).

It's actually not the MA's fault though, i've had streaks of 10 - 15 profits in a row from MA's, then I don't like to lose, pull the SL, average down more and blow 3months of profits account +200% in a matter of minutes.

So I can't blame the MA's for my own stupidity!!

* I haven't done above more than once all year, finally have that aspect cracked, I hope, find out soon!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #163
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:15am Jun 30, 2013 2:15am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I've been BE trader for years, still the same money in the account ( I moved it when I went to a Mini ). It's actually not the MA's fault though, i've had streaks of 10 - 15 profits in a row from MA's, then I don't like to lose, pull the SL, average down more and blow 3months of profits account +200% in a matter of minutes. So I can't blame the MA's for my own stupidity!! * I haven't done above more than once all year, finally have that aspect cracked, I hope, find out soon!
Mate I don't think you're a bad person. But you're doing this entirely wrong and you're not going to see an improvement in your trading until you understand why - blaming it on discipline is just a scapegoat to mask a trading strategy that simply doesn't work. Best of luck regardless, I certainly wish you no ill will. Thanks for being honest about it as well, I suspect many here would simply lie.
  • #164
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:28am Jun 30, 2013 2:28am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Mate I don't think you're a bad person. But you're doing this entirely wrong and you're not going to see an improvement in your trading until you understand why - blaming it on discipline is just a scapegoat to mask a trading strategy that simply doesn't work. Best of luck regardless, I certainly wish you no ill will. Thanks for being honest about it as well, I suspect many here would simply lie.

I get flack of all, cause I tell the truth and don't lie and keep the dream of it's easy and everyone is making $$$'s off trading, can't see the point in lying to a bunch of strangers over the internet myself.

Totally revamped how I trade recently, only tiny account but +15% in the first week, with very little time spent on the screen and no moving SL's as not actively watching mainly, I set an alarm at where the SL is so I know I've lost and a at the levels I'll consider taking profit and set orders of where I want to get in with alarms so I know when 1 hits.

Predicting the future is never easy!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #165
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:29am Jun 30, 2013 2:29am
I'm a when I have the time hobby trader, who would like to 1 day soon, start making a living off this, maybe this time ? maybe not ?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #166
  • Jun 30, 2013 2:31am Jun 30, 2013 2:31am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} I get flack of all, cause I tell the truth and don't lie and keep the dream of it's easy and everyone is making $$$'s off trading, can't see the point in lying to a bunch of strangers over the internet myself. Totally revamped how I trade recently, only tiny account but +15% in the first week, with very little time spent on the screen and no moving SL's as not actively watching mainly, I set an alarm at where the SL is so I know I've lost and a at the levels I'll consider taking profit and set orders of where I want to get in with alarms...
It actually is pretty easy once you know what to look for but it's certainly true that not everybody is raking it in, otherwise the few wouldn't be. If you ever change your mind on things feel free to PM me, I hope you seriously considered my argument above. If not, best of luck anyway.
  • #167
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:04am Jun 30, 2013 3:04am
there are many backtests in books and internet about MA crossovers. They all confirm they are profitable about 15-20% p.a with about 40% Max drawdowns.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #168
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:27am Jun 30, 2013 3:27am
Quoting pemully
there are many backtests in books and internet about MA crossovers. They all confirm they are profitable about 15-20% p.a with about 40% Max drawdowns.
Bollocks lol.
  • #169
  • Jun 30, 2013 3:34am Jun 30, 2013 3:34am
Quoting pemully
there are many backtests in books and internet about MA crossovers. They all confirm they are profitable about 15-20% p.a with about 40% Max drawdowns.
my 9 year old girl was trading a 2/20 ema cross over for many months, she put me onto it and she has traded approx. 50 times with hit rate as high as me. she has specific entries and only makes 10/20 pips, so she is obviously doing something right but no doubt we get get people saying over time she will lose blah blah, be good and I am off to sea now wooooooooooooooooooooooooo
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #170
  • Edited 3:53am Jun 30, 2013 3:38am | Edited 3:53am
Quoting billytt
{quote} my 9 year old girl was trading a 2/20 ema cross over for many months, she put me onto it and she has traded approx. 50 times with hit rate as high as me. she has specific entries and only makes 10/20 pips, so she is obviously doing something right but no doubt we get get people saying over time she will lose blah blah, be good and I am off to sea now wooooooooooooooooooooooooo
It says a lot that your hit rate is as good as one by a 9 year old girl. Did you read my post at the top of this page as to why that's going to be the case? You can put your head in the sand and enjoy your lucky run but it won't stop reality from hitting your account like a slab of concrete.
  • #171
  • Jun 30, 2013 4:40am Jun 30, 2013 4:40am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Bollocks lol.

you fool....the data is there for 100 yrs,look for it.Which other system has survived for so long?Of course it has long periods of drawdowns around 6 years.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #172
  • Edited 5:09am Jun 30, 2013 4:42am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting pemully
{quote} you fool....the data is there for 100 yrs,look for it.Which other system has survived for so long?Of course it has long periods of drawdowns around 6 years.
Prove it. Your assertion is deserving of ridicule fit for those touting a holy grail. You can call me a fool if you wish but to see a real one you only need look in the mirror.

Edit: I await your reply but will have to read it when I wake later.
  • #173
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:11am Jun 30, 2013 5:11am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Prove it. Your assertion is deserving of ridicule fit for those touting a holy grail. You can call me a fool if you wish but to see a real one you only need look in the mirror.

even if i prove it you wont believe!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf A_Century_of_Evidence_on_Trend_Following.pdf   309 KB | 691 downloads
File Type: pdf Quest-Research-Notes-Trend-Following-Sep-2010-2.pdf   491 KB | 720 downloads
File Type: pdf aaim-g.pdf   204 KB | 898 downloads
File Type: pdf trendfollowing.pdf   925 KB | 572 downloads
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #174
  • Jun 30, 2013 5:48am Jun 30, 2013 5:48am
Quoting pemully
{quote} even if i prove it you wont believe!!! {image} {image} {image} {image}
Thanks for posting above useful files. Turtles the most successful traders used system based on MA. It give excellent entry signal, you just need to be very careful when to exist with profit.
  • #175
  • Jun 30, 2013 7:43am Jun 30, 2013 7:43am
Quoting shahroor
now lets look at this chart with 50 SMA, we dont really know what currency and what date and we're going to make a decision based on what we see only you have four options here 1- Wait for a retracement and then go long 2- Jumb on now and go long 3- Go short 4- look for a better opportunity please share your views there is no right or wrong {image}
I am not sufficient enough to judge on a trade using this chart without knowing what time frame it is, what would be the big picture and all. I wish to get more answers for your chart though.
  • #176
  • Jun 30, 2013 8:08am Jun 30, 2013 8:08am
Quoting pemully
there are many backtests in books and internet about MA crossovers. They all confirm they are profitable about 15-20% p.a with about 40% Max drawdowns.

Cross overs are to damn slow, you'll just get chopped to death, not worth your time at all, I've went down to 10sma on a 5second chart and still chopped to death.

So agree with Kanzler on that 1!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #177
  • Jun 30, 2013 8:14am Jun 30, 2013 8:14am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} It actually is pretty easy once you know what to look for but it's certainly true that not everybody is raking it in, otherwise the few wouldn't be. If you ever change your mind on things feel free to PM me, I hope you seriously considered my argument above. If not, best of luck anyway.

Got to work it out myself, part of the fun, as said hobby trader and leaching someone elses method, won't get you far really.

Method is doing, nearly as expected, zero stress and returns % wise are more than good enough, so give it a few weeks and we shall see I guess.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #178
  • Jun 30, 2013 9:56am Jun 30, 2013 9:56am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Cross overs are to damn slow, you'll just get chopped to death, not worth your time at all, I've went down to 10sma on a 5second chart and still chopped to death. So agree with Kanzler on that 1!
I could show you several instances where price crossed an MA and kept moving for several 100 pips.
if you are trading every flactuation whaddya expect?
the trick is to know when the odds are in your favor and play.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #179
  • Jun 30, 2013 11:16am Jun 30, 2013 11:16am
Quoting pemully
{quote} I could show you several instances where price crossed an MA and kept moving for several 100 pips. if you are trading every flactuation whaddya expect? the trick is to know when the odds are in your favor and play.
Sadly I spent years, trying to solve the issue of when to take the trade and when it'll move 6pips then reverse on you, end of the day you can't predict the future, you just can't tell

Only 3 things work :-

1. Longer term trend, for me that's judged by 900sma on a M1 or 180sma on a M5 these days ( I use M5 as detail not so required )
2, Supply and Demand, not talking about historic levels, for every 1 that worked I'll find you 2 that failed, I'm talking GU's dropped 60pips and for 1 hour it's been stuck in range above say 5130, and i'd expect a SL break lower briefly before it heads higher to shake out the weak hands. You can not see this on anything >M5.
3. Range, the markets got a certain range it tries to stay within, it's vague don't get me wrong, but it's a useful tool.

You won't know when any of the above will let you down ofcourse, but that's what your SL is for, taking sensible profits and trying to get a much more than you risk on average, while not being stupid and holding all the way back down.

simples!!

Trade it with a big enough SL 25 - 30, take a 2nd half position at -15 area, and if your a little of on your entry, hopefully random chance will get you to a nice profit before the SL is hit

basically, just enter on pull backs with the trend, mainly!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Final Cut on the Method.jpg Size: 390 KB
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #180
  • Jun 30, 2013 1:51pm Jun 30, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting pemully
{quote} I could show you several instances where price crossed an MA and kept moving for several 100 pips. if you are trading every flactuation whaddya expect? the trick is to know when the odds are in your favor and play.
This is no longer a "system" and uses some external judgment based on something other than moving averages. As a result it is objectively worthless. Your case study of the "turtles" proves absolutely nothing, except that at some point in time a group of traders got lucky and rode the late 1990s/early 2000s bull market. Lots of people made money during that time, just not all of them compounded their gains. Using moving averages by themselves as signals will return a negative value over time as reversion to the mean occurs. Continue thinking moving averages are going to make you rich though, I'm going to enjoy taking the other side of your trades and profiting from your losses - because I know where the big orders are and you ignore them. Arguing over this is to be quite honest an exercise in exterminating my boredom, and I understand plainly why successful traders don't actually hang out here once they "get it".
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