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AUD/USD

  • #59,841
  • Jun 28, 2013 9:20pm Jun 28, 2013 9:20pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting Davit
{quote} Please always use caution last day of the month.Big boys like to see profits in their portfolios. Ease yourself into the trade.Your 1st trade should be smallest lot. Take for example 2lots you are willing to invest. then divide that into 8 Now you got 8 mini lots to trade averaging in the price so your overall range should balance out should the price go in your favor. When losing position same way average out of trades never all at once. Just my 2c
Very nice explanation of an excellent entry technique Davit. For some reason this is always overlooked & could be brought up more.
  • #59,842
  • Jun 28, 2013 9:55pm Jun 28, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting seaman2
aud is now playing on borderline. Any further, we will vitenss black swan scenario. fundamentally, aud is really value of rocks and no more. rest is built on debt. with approaching/escalating trouble in UK, AU mother country, possibility of extended & furious down move should not be discounted. My calcs targeting around 78 in couple of weeks if this shock scenario unfolds. So, will not be buying lows this time without a stop. Will prepare for possibility of sharp downmove, which is the prime time to bring your account balance to new unexpected levels...
UK economy has nothing to do with AU economy.
  • #59,843
  • Jun 28, 2013 9:57pm Jun 28, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} UK economy has nothing to do with AU economy.

It has a lot to do with it, Check out trading partners.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #59,844
  • Jun 29, 2013 12:59am Jun 29, 2013 12:59am
Quoting Malik taxila
AUS " I am with long From 9415 / 9160 / and now 9107 TP 9455 / and 9500
I can't believe what I'm reading here. You also say later no SL!?Truly amazing, you're down nearly 300 pips from 9145 now in hope to regain that loss & make 40 pips as TP... regardless of the direction from here, I see that as truly awful trading and I feel there is also no reasoning being given for this trade on this forum, other than a speculation. Maybe if the lot size is 1 micro-lot, loss is not so bad, still not ever good to realise losing trades.
Other traders on this forum being stopped out & losing their account trying to go long in what is truly & plainly obvious counter-trend trading.Personally, I REALLY WANT AUD to go up, but small rally up does not give me hope, only more selling opportunity. Look at D chart last week, it took many days to gain maybe 100 pips then drops 200 in one day...
You have very good view on Gold though and very good entry & TPs there so congratulations!
I do not mean a personal attack or anything here, I'm just very very confused & concerned of trading this way, but I understand not my business, just posting it on a forum means it is up for discussion. I wish for people to make money, not to lose badly
  • #59,845
  • Jun 29, 2013 3:12am Jun 29, 2013 3:12am
Quoting seaman2
aud is now playing on borderline. Any further, we will vitenss black swan scenario. fundamentally, aud is really value of rocks and no more. rest is built on debt. with approaching/escalating trouble in UK, AU mother country, possibility of extended & furious down move should not be discounted. My calcs targeting around 78 in couple of weeks if this shock scenario unfolds. So, will not be buying lows this time without a stop. Will prepare for possibility of sharp downmove, which is the prime time to bring your account balance to new unexpected levels...

"Rocks" is something more than UK has, for starting. Think Australia's been more than a couple of days as an independent country as well. Debt? What is UK's economy based on, then? Do you really think aussie's devaluation won't do anything for them? We're not talking Argentina here, with its non-sense surrealistic way of doing things. As if there was nobody to buy wanting to buy all of those Australian "rocks"... Now tell me that Canada has only "rocks" and ice...
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  • #59,846
  • Jun 29, 2013 6:22am Jun 29, 2013 6:22am
AUD will fall more only if U.S equties will crash. Now we at the same levels of 2007 financial crisis begin. If it will happen again AUD will hit 6500 with no resistance at the end of july. I am longing AUD at 9270,9170, will long it at 9040,
i will long it at 8890

u know and i will long it at 8750. Then i will wait till the end of 2013 and will take profit at 1.0300.

i u got capital u better invest in AUD cause its best currency i know. It recovers quicklly as it drops.

Long !
  • #59,847
  • Jun 29, 2013 7:02am Jun 29, 2013 7:02am
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} "Rocks" is something more than UK has, for starting. Think Australia's been more than a couple of days as an independent country as well. Debt? What is UK's economy based on, then? Do you really think aussie's devaluation won't do anything for them? We're not talking Argentina here, with its non-sense surrealistic way of doing things. As if there was nobody to buy wanting to buy all of those Australian "rocks"... Now tell me that Canada has only "rocks" and ice...

AU is not independent from UK. Just check the flag and mention of queen in varous official texts. And do not forget that AU government was sacked by queen couple decades back. What I am referring to is perception of AU in market participant eyes and not necessary the truth. Truth has many faces and this one could become overriding right now.
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  • #59,848
  • Jun 29, 2013 7:18am Jun 29, 2013 7:18am
Quoting Trader88q
AUD will fall more only if U.S equties will crash. Now we at the same levels of 2007 financial crisis begin. If it will happen again AUD will hit 6500 with no resistance at the end of july. I am longing AUD at 9270,9170, will long it at 9040, i will long it at 8890 u know and i will long it at 8750. Then i will wait till the end of 2013 and will take profit at 1.0300. i u got capital u better invest in AUD cause its best currency i know. It recovers quicklly as it drops. Long !
Understood regarding the Aud strength & recovery ability, but surely, long trade indicator is with clear trend reversal on candle/bar chart on longer timeframe 4H/D/W? While we still see 200 pip drop in a day, it just seems insane to place market execution buy orders, I understand of course pending buy limit orders to take advantage of the rally. I wait for the effects of QE to play into my hands before I go long I think at this stage.
Best wishes, I won't comment further on anyone currently going long in this current situation & I apologise if I offended anyone, I'm trying to understand other traders strategy but from now need to simply focus on my own very successful trades
  • #59,849
  • Jun 29, 2013 7:52am Jun 29, 2013 7:52am
Where is the AUD/USD heading short, mid or long term? Look at the M1 and W1 time frames. The trend is quite powerful. The D1 shows slight pullback, but is right in the process of resuming its trend. Note: A loaded down 300 foot cargo ship moving at full speed cannot stop and turn on the dime. It takes time to change course. Always look at the overall trend. This will act as a safety net should your entry seem to have turned against you. With this understanding, you have a good idea that time and patients will bring you back into what you think "turned against" you. The inverse of that: If you entered a trade and it is going against you, the M1, W1 and D1 will tell you if you need to cut your losses , or..... wait. Again... time and patients.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #59,850
  • Jun 29, 2013 8:15am Jun 29, 2013 8:15am
Hello,

Please, may i ask you how you see aud/jpy in the next week?

Thank you very much
Don't give up
  • #59,851
  • Jun 29, 2013 11:16am Jun 29, 2013 11:16am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} AU is not independent from UK. Just check the flag and mention of queen in varous official texts. And do not forget that AU government was sacked by queen couple decades back. What I am referring to is perception of AU in market participant eyes and not necessary the truth. Truth has many faces and this one could become overriding right now. {image}

Agree with you on the perception issue, I was just saying that in terms of practical reality Australia has better weapons to fight against problems that today's economy faces, in particular from the western countries pov. Regarding the UK, it has far worst shape in the short/medium/long term in terms of being able to offer something to the rest of the world, in terms of debt, industrial capabilities (they have destroyed their productive force and capital) and even in terms of currency itself. One can devaluate his currency in order to export, but you have to have something to sell in the first place. Aussies have both capabilities. Not to talk about paying national debt: one thing is the amount of debt vs gdp, but the important thing comes when having the capacity of paying it. Europe and British islands are f*** up on this issues. From my pov, it's not the aussie falling, it's the $ rising and the aussie blowing its artificial currency bubble.

Anyway, it's an interesting discussion.
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  • #59,852
  • Jun 29, 2013 4:14pm Jun 29, 2013 4:14pm
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} Agree with you on the perception issue, I was just saying that in terms of practical reality Australia has better weapons to fight against problems that today's economy faces, in particular from the western countries pov. Regarding the UK, it has far worst shape in the short/medium/long term in terms of being able to offer something to the rest of the world, in terms of debt, industrial capabilities (they have destroyed their productive force and capital) and even in terms of currency itself. One can devaluate his currency in order to export,...
My view is that social uprising coming up in uk for the reasons you mention above. It could affect AU, same way subsidiary bank cant have higher rating than parent. This will affect all commonwealth currencies. Even if link is really not working. Timing of it is uncertain though.

I see above random chance that move can get wild on downside and trying to figure out potential drivers. As it often does, markets reverse at these points but this time MAY be different.

Another driver can be US slowing bond purchases and subsequently China purposely not helping out banks last week. China seem to mirror US printing or lack of it. Both of them now giving clear signs that don't count on it in the future. GOLD seem to understand this. AUD can catch up.

Long timeframe, I am bullish of AUD and expect to see 1.4 or so.
  • #59,853
  • Jun 29, 2013 4:17pm Jun 29, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting seaman2
{quote} I am bullish of AUD and expect to see 1.4 or so.
HAHAHA, I bloody hope you are talking about USDAUD or that is nigh on never going to happen...
  • #59,854
  • Jun 29, 2013 5:06pm Jun 29, 2013 5:06pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} HAHAHA, I bloody hope you are talking about USDAUD or that is nigh on never going to happen...
Since when do we have UsdAud?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #59,855
  • Jun 29, 2013 5:28pm Jun 29, 2013 5:28pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Since when do we have UsdAud?
Hey KillerWhale, you still shorting USD/INR? what you think of the last week candle?

cheers!
  • #59,856
  • Jun 29, 2013 6:29pm Jun 29, 2013 6:29pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Since when do we have UsdAud?
What do you mean?

There has always been usdaud......
  • #59,857
  • Jun 29, 2013 7:43pm Jun 29, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} HAHAHA, I bloody hope you are talking about USDAUD or that is nigh on never going to happen...

HA !

2-3 years.
  • #59,858
  • Jun 29, 2013 10:39pm Jun 29, 2013 10:39pm
US Consumer Sentiment pushed AUD/USD lower.
  • #59,859
  • Jun 30, 2013 1:38am Jun 30, 2013 1:38am
An interesting week ahead regarding the calendar for data release, quite a lot of high impact news that will directly affect this pair, should range reasonably well & maybe some good long opportunities that probably everyone wants to see, to me I want to see good high rallies for more short opportunities, especially ending the week with NFP...
Happy trading to all, more TP green pips & less SL being hit!
  • #59,860
  • Jun 30, 2013 4:57am Jun 30, 2013 4:57am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} HA ! 2-3 years.
Can you give your reasons please?
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