Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Indeed that is what has been mentioned: it is that simple! it is simple! it is in the charts!

So simple that nobody here is able to see it. I, for one, have been turning the charts upside down simplicity wise. How can one see the right tree in the forest if nobody shows a real path?

Been trying everything from trend lines, reversal points, circles to formulas, magic numbers to S&D, resistance... have discovered very interesting stuff in this journey but no matter how interesting and mind blowing it was, nothing helped to obtain that edge that....is so simple to see in the charts...the edge that CP is talking about...the edge that works no matter how the market changes over time or how random it seems to be.... have you?!

I think a lot of people here see the simplicity.

Has anyone "solved" the image I put yesterday? A 7 year old kid gave me the answer once. We try to overcomplicate things. We tend to think that differentials and integrals are the way to go when they are simple additions and substractions, or even more simple, geometrical triangles.

Some say "use tick charts" like if they had found the holy grail, or that 1M charts are even too big, that they need faster ones. Why? I don't know. Truth is that there is not "ONE" way, there are many, but they all are the same at the end.

1. The Simpsons
2. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
3. South Park
4. Smurfs
5. (I Don't know)
6. Sesame Street: Burt and Ernie
7. Donald duck & his nephews
8. (Don't know)


Next to Donald Duck is an alarm clock (time is 6:15)

I'll bite... Interesting thread and I am not making any claims here, but...

What is a chart? It is just a collection of data correct?

Who's chart are you looking at? Is it yours or someone else's? Are you looking visually at the chart or are you looking at the chart from the point of view that is a collection of data? What data are you looking for? How do want to view your data you seek? Do you view it on a bar, candle, line chart? Why?

Why do you use a 5 min candle, 15 min candle? What are you looking for in a 15 min candle? What is a candle? Does it have some meaning to you if it were a daily candle vs an hour candle? What if it were based upon a trading session? Do you even need a candle on your chart or just the data?

Do you view data on a another tool such as an oscillator? Why? Again, how is your data collected, what is it based on, what are your parameters and what you are looking for? How about collecting and viewing data on a spreadsheet or database? Do you know what probabilities are on your side or not?

What are you seeking? Is it perfection in trading? What is perfection in trading to you?

What are your parameters for achieving what you are searching for? Why?

Who are the Kings, Queens, Rooks, Pawns, etc... of the market? What is their role? How do they play? Why do they have to play different than you and what does that mean?

For an example of data...

Let's say pair ABC/XYZ trades on average in a 50 pip range (last week, month, year whatever) for the NY/London overlap. This is data, but does it show up on chart? Of course, it's there right in front of your eyes, but I would rather not try to pull the data out of the chart manually. I will use another tool such as an ATR, or a data set I have collected if needed. Very basic and simple I know.

Another... Previously I mentioned oscillator's. What if I have created an oscillator only on tick price because I want to know when price deviates X pips away from the mean in either direction. I have discovered that when it deviates X pips my probabilities of a successful trade move into my favor for a trade in one direction. Why have the probabilities moved into my favor? Well, maybe the calculations (data) in my deviation help show me when money is coming in or out of the pair. Is it in the chart? Yes, but it may be very difficult to see for you without the data collected and visualized differently. Price and data collection maybe just too fast, so use tools if you have too. It doesn't have to be necessary depending on how you trade.

Many never seek answers to the simple questions of why do you do what you do, what you are looking for, and who else is there. As has been stated here and elsewhere, markets are either up or down to exist, never changes. This creates opportunity.


Non-trading, real world example of what one is looking for and why (may be a crude example)...

I still own a business where the small-medium sized business does 5-20 million US dollars annually and the mid-sized 20-50 million, with large going up from there. It use to be that my goal was to be large, not real large, but large. I fought and battled for it for years thinking that I would make much more than a small to medium sized business. I did this until I saw the data of what it actually means, what it takes, and the truth. The truth is that on average the small to medium sized business will profit more as a percentage of business than the large companies. The large companies operate in a different world on different rules and margins. I have data (yes, cherry-picked) from companies that show the following (US Dollars, neither company is mine):

Company A - Revenue $129,000,000 Pre-tax Profit $3,870,000 ~% Profit 3
Company B - Revenue $ 16,000,000 Pre-tax Profit $1,600,000 ~% Profit 10

I asked myself why do I want to be big? My answer wasn't what I thought it was previously (money, better life etc). It was ego. I wanted to be a large company just to be large and also assumed I would make more money, but I was tying to feed my ego. The reality is that Company A's profits are shared and the "stuff" that goes along with it aren't what I am looking for. Company B may be solely owned, but for the most part those profits are most likely shared at a very small percentage. It does not take large overhead to run Company B, which you can imagine what the benefits of that alone may be. I would also be willing to bet that the lifeline for Company B is a lot longer than Company A when times get tough. Finally, staying a certain size allows me to do other forms of so called work that I like much more.

The point? By asking myself why and what for caused me to seek the data, which allowed me to see a clearer picture of the truth. Inside the data was where the path was for me in this crude example. I not only narrowed down my probability for success, but I realized how much more simple one choice was over the other.

Maybe the matter is the chart by itself, you cannot see what is inside the box until you open it......

5. Asterix and Obelix (I'm so proud of myself)

8 -Luky luke and the Daltons

average price levels however we use them are certainly one of the keys,but dont dismiss the possibility that such levels dont hold more information.not predictable outcome but natural levels were interest will resume.for all the different participants reasons, human behavior locates interest around a certain point ,this is ingrained in our very make up.personally im not talking about secret maths equations just simple logic.

should these averages converge we have a clearer view,price will be taken to 1 of 2 points ,with such a simple uncomplicated perspective .when the leading bird fly's fly with her.

personally i cant simplify my approach without taking the key away

There are more than 1 profitable trading systems, and not only 1 'holy grail'.
Actually there's a lot of different or combination of systems that can be profitable.

Earlier in this thread CP mention about not using historical price/data for trading.

Come on, then why do you use chart?
If you do use chart, it means you are looking into historical price/data.

Don't be misleading..!

From CP earlier quotes..
Think of how many FF readers have been misleaded.. Sigh...

@ Pg FX: You can say that because you simply know my system inside and out, right!?

This thread is for healthy conversations.

It is NOT a thread to decipher my way of trading.

And if your brain can't get around a black swan,

this thread is NOT for anyone to start crying like a little baby and disrupting the thread.

If anyone can't stick to the thread topic, it's an INSTANT BAN from this thread.

Ok if we go back to Newton law and fx. For movement we need force. The force in FX is influx. The question is how to get alerted that the move is coming.

Someone tell me to watch non lag MACD on tick chart. Any other suggestion or explanation what could we see on non lag MACD tick charts or any other idea how to measure influx. My idea is to measure frequency of trades.

CP is this conversation still ok for this thread?

@ Trader_V

Could you share your details about the red and yellow lines in your template? Just curious...If it's not a secret or too much to ask... Thanks!

@ Crucial Point

Some of us are trying to decipher your trading system.....some of us are not trying that.... but in the spirit of the market celebration and to honor the market gods would you share only your influx indicator ? that might be very helpful to many of us just kidding...I know you said you will never disclose.

So, this is the topic.

Pi has maybe something to do with boundaries and constants in trading.

.....

I find my holly grail with this thread. Thanks to CP and other contibutors from this thread.

It is calling high probability scalping... . I hunting two to three pips in a trade because in average daily range of 100 pips there is more than 1000 pips moving all the time like quants up and down.... I could easily catch this two to three pips 10 or more time a day. It is also stresless. And i got this idea when CP wrote about eggs. LOL

I use EMAs recomended by CP for entry and exit on 1minute chart. I dont use other indicatora except EMAs. Of course i am interested in influx indicator but just as an additional knowledge.

For me out of the box thinking in this system is that i dont catch one or two 10 pips move but 2 to 3 pips move 10 times. What do you think is more easy and more stresless?

Regarding pi, CP said that the lightbulb for him went on when he started thinking about how the earliest folks went about calculating it.