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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #126,341
  • Jun 22, 2013 11:00am Jun 22, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Pinbar
For Ghous Any chance you could give us a quick insight into what led you to research the SFP? Meaning was it after you first learned PA and if so, why did you seek an alternative method of entry, I am of course assuming that, the large SL on a regular PA entry led you to research more into this. As is, my personal situation. EDit' Because of the nature of this post, you could always shoot me a quick PM. Don't particularly want to open a fresh can of worms, for new people to get confused with.
Hey Steve,

My attraction to SFPs was triggered by the inclusion of it by Tom i.e the wizard from the fail better thread, in his methods. While he was the one who provided me with the idea that it had the potential to be systematized, the roots of this attraction lye here, at the J16 thread and the order flow threads at FF that I would curiously visit time and again.

When reading those threads I understood how the J16 thread is basically just a condensed more streamlined, cut into sizable bites, version of order flow trading. Its amazing how the same order flow concepts were being taught here in much simpler terminology and words. Aside from this I also understood why "confluence" was important and why location was always far more important than the bar itself. I started to understand why Pin bars at swing points worked more than anywhere else. I realized why the nose needed to be protruding away from the vicinity of the preceding bars and why the long nose itself was needed for a good shaped pin bar.

All these little facts contributed to my knowledge bank and of course meant that I was (and we all were) implicitly using the SFP concept as part of a lot of the trades. It was obviously Tom who gave it substance and form and eventually intrigued me into looking deeper into the very concept of the SFP.

I returned to those order flow threads, and shoveled all the material pertaining to "stop hunts" and fake outs and the liquidity equilibrium and dis-equilibrium. What followed was more research, back testing, a lot of forward testing and trial and error. The research process is still ongoing and I am continuously looking to improve the way I trade fake outs.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #126,342
  • Jun 22, 2013 11:16am Jun 22, 2013 11:16am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
{quote} maybe i used the wrong phrase.. it can be indisicion, what i meant is it is a short term consilodation, or rest in price movement. Not the longer term consolodations like the boxes Mike shows. I would say it is a more neutral bar than a doji, especially if the doji is printed higher than the previous bar, like a gap or something (i forget the patterns name) on my 1H chart the blue boxes are two days trading, im not sure if you would call that retracement/rest/consolodation?? I think that could be showing both indisicion and possibly value...
Hey Jon,

I totally agree with you in that IBs show a halt in momentum but aren't always indicative of lack of order flow or buying and selling. A tight range on the bar may also be reminiscent of a very tough head to head battle between the bulls and the bears. Also IBs at critical locations can be highly indicative of a breakout of one direction more than the other which is where they reveal their true worth.

Here is a trade I took this week.

Chart to follow in a bit...

g.
I believe . . .
  • #126,343
  • Jun 22, 2013 12:05pm Jun 22, 2013 12:05pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Jon, I totally agree with you in that IBs show a halt in momentum but aren't always indicative of lack of order flow or buying and selling. A tight range on the bar may also be reminiscent of a very tough head to head battle between the bulls and the bears. Also IBs at critical locations can be highly indicative of a breakout of one direction more than the other which is where they reveal their true worth. Here is a trade I took this week. Chart to follow in a bit... g.
This was CAD/CHF 4H,

Price pulling back to the 9000 area + LLS + divergence (implicit).

Although the IB occurred under the 9000, the preceding action confirmed lack of any bearish interest, and a slowing up of momentum in this particular scenario was reminiscent of the possibility of bullish action at the critical location.

Price hit the FTA nice and strong but too bad the markets are slow and vulnerable in these holiday periods. This turned out to be a BE trade for me.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #126,344
  • Jun 22, 2013 10:04pm Jun 22, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Steve, My attraction to SFPs was triggered by the inclusion of it by Tom i.e the wizard from the fail better thread, in his methods. While he was the one who provided me with the idea that it had the potential to be systematized, the roots of this attraction lye here, at the J16 thread and the order flow threads at FF that I would curiously visit time and again. When reading those threads I understood how the J16 thread is basically just a condensed more streamlined, cut into sizable bites, version of order flow trading. Its amazing...
Thanks Ghous

That was a rather in depth explanation which, is appreciated.
I hear you totally on the subject of order flow and liquidity, and for me personally, the SFP has helped me understand what was a difficult concept of PA, it always seemed so complicated but, the SFP really cleared the fog.

As they say" All roads lead to Rome" and many are intertwined.

Thanks again Ghous
  • #126,345
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:38am Jun 23, 2013 4:38am
Great explanation Ghous!

I personally like SFP as well since I am trading false breakouts as a confirmation as well. SFP are more or less just a way of looking at false breakouts!

Keep up the great work
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.
  • #126,346
  • Jun 23, 2013 6:20am Jun 23, 2013 6:20am
Hi Guys

EU looks interesting on W1 TF. 1.3 first target?
USDSEK was a nobrainer setup last week sponsored by Mr Bernanke...
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  • #126,347
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:47am Jun 23, 2013 8:47am
something for mike...

AA on weekly
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #126,348
  • Jun 23, 2013 10:09am Jun 23, 2013 10:09am
Quoting Greenhaze
Hi Guys EU looks interesting on W1 TF. 1.3 first target? USDSEK was a nobrainer setup last week sponsored by Mr Bernanke... {image} {image}
Yeah, I have had my eye on this also.
If it can break the former consolidation area, I am in.
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  • #126,349
  • Jun 23, 2013 11:05am Jun 23, 2013 11:05am
Let's see if we can decode why this didn't drop like a stone.

What do we have:

1) A pin bar as good as it gets

2) 150 EMA First time back (i.e a BASE setup)

3) 19.5 RN (and the pin bar closed under it)

4) Some space.

5) Fake out of the former swing high on the 4H

Some will argue that it barely broke, but we are not criticizing any trades here, we merely want to see if price action, the way we follow it here on the thread can provide an answer for why this pin bar actually didn't work to start off with. Or was this just a genuine loss?

What do you guys think?

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #126,350
  • Jun 23, 2013 11:16am Jun 23, 2013 11:16am
Quoting str8
{quote} Mike, you said in this post that "So the types of trails I use range from a volatility based indicator for breakouts with room to run". Which indicator do you use to trail stops for breakouts? And another trade management question: how can you avoid to lose all money in a trade that immediately after you enter reverses against you? It had happened to me a couple of times. I entered at the break of a pin bar/outside bar with a buffer and then the trade reversed and it hit my stop loss which was at the other side of the bar. I'm thinking...
Hey Str8


The volatility based indicator I used is called the BAT atr, that was taken from the BAT method posted on FF. It's basically just using an ATR to allow price to flow. I don't use it any more because you can just get a visual idea of where it would run anywhere. It helped a lot to teach me patience on trailing an exit. Now though I use my full discretion on all exits because my confidence in what I am trying to do and ability to read each situation is high.


As for how to avoid full bar losses. Most times I am watching a specific area on a trade to cut out. So even if price immediately reverses on me giving me no chance to take profit or get my stop to b/e or better I usually have certain areas that I will cut out along the way. In the case where price immediately reverses you have to be more proactive to cut out as price cuts through those areas. Does that mean I never take a full bar loss ? No I certainly do. But I literally can't even remember the last full bar loss I took. That should tell you a LOT about how much my focus is on my risk mgmt of a trade. This is how I exploit the use of stops say above/below a bar. Many people say oh no that stop size is so big, but it's also what effectively allows me to both reduce my risk on a trade while maintaining the integrity of a trade. Again it's a matter of what one traders sees as advantageous over another.

There is not universal answer of when do I close a trade. If you go back through my charts I post a lot of my trades as well with the trade mgmt. Here you can see my thought process of when I look to reduce risk/take profit/etc etc. Each situation is unique and thus I treat it that way. It depends on the story, depends on how the trade progresses and my feelings at the time. My goal is not to be perfect cause that rarely happens, but it's too be logical. If you are logical with how you treat price with your entries(same as with exits) then you will know if what you are doing works and also how to make tweaks to it.


So my focus when determining exits goes hand in hadn with the entry. For example you tell me

If we are trading in a choppy sideways market and we get an entry. Which do you think I am more likely to do.


1. Let trade run and try to turn into a runner
2. Look to protect my trade and take profit quick or get to b/e quick

Yes this is a very basic example, but it doesn't get much more complicated then that in terms of my overall general approach to a situation.



Hope that helps
Mike
  • #126,351
  • Jun 23, 2013 1:07pm Jun 23, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting stockEX
Hey Mike ,Hey Jaroo One question I always wanted to ask you guys is how do you organize your day? I'm having serious problems with my time management right now, my job's gotten more stressfull lately and I don't really find time for trading.Well actually I do have time but I don't want to trade when I am half asleep or can't concentrate. So how do you guys do it? Do you have set times in the day?
Hey Stock


It's certainly tougher depending on what your life/jobs might have for you. One thing I think is no one should force it because it will usually lead to mistakes. So if you can't commit to checking your charts say daily cause of work, move to weekly charts etc.

I personally don't have many issues being self employed it's pretty easy to be around when needed. I check my daily charts once a day for entries same with weekly. I watch intraday charts using a combination of alarms if I am asleep, and checking near the end of each hour when I am awake. I am not glued to my charts as some might think rather I just kind of always have them open.

I think your issue is common but I think it can be solved greatly by moving up timeframes till you find one that is comfortable.

Best
Mike
  • #126,352
  • Jun 23, 2013 2:33pm Jun 23, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting aserbfx
something for mike... AA on weekly {image}
doing my weekly stock scan now

Nice big buob would be nice on this one

  • #126,353
  • Jun 23, 2013 3:38pm Jun 23, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting ghous
Let's see if we can decode why this didn't drop like a stone. What do we have: 1) A pin bar as good as it gets 2) 150 EMA First time back (i.e a BASE setup) 3) 19.5 RN (and the pin bar closed under it) 4) Some space. 5) Fake out of the former swing high on the 4H Some will argue that it barely broke, but we are not criticizing any trades here, we merely want to see if price action, the way we follow it here on the thread can provide an answer for why this pin bar actually didn't work to start off with. Or was this just a genuine loss? What do you...
ghous well from what I've noticed from my journal recently about most setups is that i tend to have bigger draw-downs when i take a trade that broke outside of the London session than ones broken during the London session and so i have decided not to take setups that are broken/triggered outside of the London session. therefore that is the reason that would keep me out of this trade. Although i think its just me.
Just my two cents.

Al
  • #126,354
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:52pm Jun 23, 2013 4:52pm
Quoting ghous
Let's see if we can decode why this didn't drop like a stone. What do we have: 1) A pin bar as good as it gets 2) 150 EMA First time back (i.e a BASE setup) 3) 19.5 RN (and the pin bar closed under it) 4) Some space. 5) Fake out of the former swing high on the 4H Some will argue that it barely broke, but we are not criticizing any trades here, we merely want to see if price action, the way we follow it here on the thread can provide an answer for why this pin bar actually didn't work to start off with. Or was this just a genuine loss? What do you...
dont know about a failure. it hit the FTA, shouldnt av been a full bar loss at least. and it took two bars to break which always hints at the lack of momentum (to me) so i wouldnt have been so suprised at the outcome. Especially after that strong assed run up, (more than a retrace that move)coming off the DBL bottom as it did. i cant get this pair so im going from your chart. dont know if on the same page as you Ghous?? but thats how i see it. good bar though. very tempting.

jon

EDIT: plus what albus999 said, price very often changes direction on the NY session.(though i cant tell what time it is from your chart....lol)
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #126,355
  • Jun 23, 2013 4:58pm Jun 23, 2013 4:58pm
Would both these bars count as BEOB? Thank you.
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  • #126,356
  • Jun 23, 2013 5:09pm Jun 23, 2013 5:09pm
Quoting bee24
Would both these bars count as BEOB? Thank you. {image} {image}
The weelky bar for sure
the daily bar is technically but not at a swing high where J16 teaches we want to find them

jon
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #126,357
  • Jun 23, 2013 7:33pm Jun 23, 2013 7:33pm
hi pinbar, jaroo, mbqb11,

whats your take on GBP/AUD....i went short but got out with a 20 pips loss..this pair is quite volatile.. it formed a bearish bar at swing high near a good resistance and BRN. the trend was up though...any advice will be much appreciated.


regards

dennis
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  • #126,358
  • Jun 23, 2013 8:18pm Jun 23, 2013 8:18pm
Quoting dennis4u15
hi pinbar, jaroo, mbqb11, whats your take on GBP/AUD....i went short but got out with a 20 pips loss..this pair is quite volatile.. it formed a bearish bar at swing high near a good resistance and BRN. the trend was up though...any advice will be much appreciated. regards dennis {image}
I am not either of the people mentioned above but this is my take on this pair. Firstly price is in a range on the 4hr and also this pair forms a flag pattern of some sort. i would not short this pair at all but rather look for the break of the channel. For this pair i think is all bullish i think.
just my two cents.

Al.
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  • #126,359
  • Jun 23, 2013 11:34pm Jun 23, 2013 11:34pm
Still watching this but, the gap has yet to fill.
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  • #126,360
  • Jun 23, 2013 11:44pm Jun 23, 2013 11:44pm
hi pinbar,

there is some support in the eur/usd around the 1.310 region.

regards

dennis
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