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EUR/GBP - What a great pair to trade!

  • #2,101
  • Jun 18, 2013 12:54pm Jun 18, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Excellent analysis SM. I don't seem to catch the twists and turns in this pair as well. Luckily for me my money is not in it so all i say when surprised is 'holy cow' and try to assess what has happened Olu
It is good isn't it? I like to look at longer term but I trade off smaller time frames. I'm still bearish overall for this pair but I'm probably wrong. I still think it's a great pair to trade. The London break out trade this morning was remarkable and I don't think any other pair does it so well. It will be even better when it starts trending properly.
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  • #2,102
  • Jun 19, 2013 3:15am Jun 19, 2013 3:15am
Attack to the neck line for EurGbp!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 39 KB
  • #2,103
  • Jun 20, 2013 5:34am Jun 20, 2013 5:34am
For me, a head and shoulders should be more symmetrical and at the end of a proper trend. Just saying.

This area is my idea of a good line to trade off:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp130620m15.JPG Size: 91 KB


The price is jammed between last week's high and yesterday's low. We just broke below yesterday's low and retested it. All happening around .8540. Rings lots of bells with me.
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  • #2,104
  • Jun 20, 2013 5:43am Jun 20, 2013 5:43am
Quoting JeremyWS
4 Hour looks like it could close under significant trendline level, RSI also overbought and due for small (50 pip?) reversal. Also included; yield spread and UK 5Y breakevens, all rather GBP bullish imo {image} {image} {image}
Much appreciated Jeremy...
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  • #2,105
  • Jun 20, 2013 6:14am Jun 20, 2013 6:14am
I just thought I'd post this chart because it contains one of the things I look for in trading. This is the daily and there is also a very good example on the one minute chart right now. When I discovered this, I thought I had discovered something new. Later searches proved that like all my other discoveries, it was not new. Bollinger compression, boxing, accumulation etc... Anyway, the Donchian Channel or price channel, as it is sometimes called, is currently at 150 pips and the ATR(20) is at 45. That's close to 3 : 1. The 200 day ATR is 51, up from 43 at the beginning of the year. This is good for trading because we will probably see a dynamic break out, not tradable easily in itself, for lots of reasons, but a return to a trend. Possibly after a false break out.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp130620d1.JPG Size: 123 KB


This is a 28 period DC, and useful because the flat lines pinpoint historical highs and lows, saving time when drawing levels on different time frames.
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  • #2,106
  • Jun 22, 2013 8:25am Jun 22, 2013 8:25am
Quoting smikester
For me, a head and shoulders should be more symmetrical and at the end of a proper trend. Just saying. This area is my idea of a good line to trade off: {image} The price is jammed between last week's high and yesterday's low. We just broke below yesterday's low and retested it. All happening around .8540. Rings lots of bells with me.

I understand that it may seem a forcing, but sometimes the head and shoulder are also formed as continuation figures of a trend, in this case a bullish one. Anyway, based on what I'm seeing at the moment, it seems to be a preparatory phase to a new low.
  • #2,107
  • Jun 22, 2013 9:03am Jun 22, 2013 9:03am
Quoting smikester
I just thought I'd post this chart because it contains one of the things I look for in trading. This is the daily and there is also a very good example on the one minute chart right now. When I discovered this, I thought I had discovered something new. Later searches proved that like all my other discoveries, it was not new. Bollinger compression, boxing, accumulation etc... Anyway, the Donchian Channel or price channel, as it is sometimes called, is currently at 150 pips and the ATR(20) is at 45. That's close to 3 : 1. The 200 day ATR is 51, up...
Excellent analysis Mike..and good points made on the thread..

my thoughts, imho..

We can see EG respects the 60 lwma, Monthly, and is acting as support with the weekly 50 Fib ( amongst others ). Also my bias still stands
with the very bearish monthly bar that shadows PA atm and we still have the monthly trend line as the ceiling with no weekly close above
condensing PA ..So, still for me its a correction into the monthly bar before a downside leg , unless PA IS confirmed above the trend line.

I do think its going to grind a bit more before breaking out..

Ja.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Month.png Size: 59 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: week.png Size: 59 KB
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #2,108
  • Jun 24, 2013 3:30am Jun 24, 2013 3:30am
Quoting elisab
{quote} I understand that it may seem a forcing, but sometimes the head and shoulder are also formed as continuation figures of a trend, in this case a bullish one. Anyway, based on what I'm seeing at the moment, it seems to be a preparatory phase to a new low.
Yes, I understand what you say. In any case, it's an interesting pattern of support and resistance levels which we can trade off. It could play out bullish, as you pointed out. The battle today is around that old friend .8530.

Today I am looking for entries short, though, based on the likelihood of a continuation of the daily bearish bar of Thursday last week. I was hoping for worse German figures (sorry my German friends) to set the ball rolling, but, as usual, Germany is turning out figures perfectly respectable. What an impressive economy.

However, the bigger picture shows the monthly 200ma at .72 - .73 and so that will be my longer term target. The monthly chart shows a rejection and retest of .86 - .87. How fortuitous to get in at this level?
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  • #2,109
  • Jun 24, 2013 3:26pm Jun 24, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting j4d
{quote} Excellent analysis Mike..and good points made on the thread.. my thoughts, imho.. We can see EG respects the 60 lwma, Monthly, and is acting as support with the weekly 50 Fib ( amongst others ). Also my bias still stands with the very bearish monthly bar that shadows PA atm and we still have the monthly trend line as the ceiling with no weekly close above condensing PA ..So, still for me its a correction into the monthly bar before a downside leg , unless PA IS confirmed above the trend line. I do think its going to grind a bit more before...
Thanks. Yes. Definitely looking like more work to go up than to go down. By the way. What are those ma's and how do you use them?
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  • #2,110
  • Jun 24, 2013 3:57pm Jun 24, 2013 3:57pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Yes, I understand what you say. In any case, it's an interesting pattern of support and resistance levels which we can trade off. It could play out bullish, as you pointed out. The battle today is around that old friend .8530. Today I am looking for entries short, though, based on the likelihood of a continuation of the daily bearish bar of Thursday last week. I was hoping for worse German figures (sorry my German friends) to set the ball rolling, but, as usual, Germany is turning out figures perfectly respectable. What an impressive economy....

I would suggest you to keep the French data monitored, instead of the German ones. The real problem for the Euro is France and its banks.
  • #2,111
  • Jun 25, 2013 12:39pm Jun 25, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting smikester
{quote} Thanks. Yes. Definitely looking like more work to go up than to go down. By the way. What are those ma's and how do you use them?
The ma's are 60 ema and 60 lwma.. I use them as a zone to help define the trend in the different TF's... I also use them to help depict points of value when buying/selling into trends, they can hold a lot of flow...

cheers Mike..

Ja
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #2,112
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:29am Jun 27, 2013 2:29am
Quoting elisab
{quote} I understand that it may seem a forcing, but sometimes the head and shoulder are also formed as continuation figures of a trend, in this case a bullish one. Anyway, based on what I'm seeing at the moment, it seems to be a preparatory phase to a new low.
Anyway, the theory holds for now:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp130627d1.JPG Size: 108 KB
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  • #2,113
  • Jun 28, 2013 7:44am Jun 28, 2013 7:44am
Is it going to be the moment of EurGbp? Attention to 0.86…
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.gif Size: 52 KB
  • #2,114
  • Jun 29, 2013 8:34am Jun 29, 2013 8:34am
Quoting smikester
{quote} Anyway, the theory holds for now: {image}

Yes, the theory holds and it’s trying to break upward.
  • #2,115
  • Jul 2, 2013 8:20am Jul 2, 2013 8:20am
0.86 again on EurGbp…is it going to be the right time for a bullish break towards 0.88?
  • #2,116
  • Jul 4, 2013 4:10am Jul 4, 2013 4:10am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp130704h1.JPG Size: 125 KB


Pennant roughly forming below the significant level of .8530 and the 38.2% retrace. I'm guessing this might make a move in an hour or two when BoE statements are released. Not expecting much from the Usd pairs today, what with Independence Day and tomorrow being NFP. Happy Independence Day!
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  • #2,117
  • Jul 4, 2013 4:52am Jul 4, 2013 4:52am
Quoting smikester
{image} Pennant roughly forming below the significant level of .8530 and the 38.2% retrace. I'm guessing this might make a move in an hour or two when BoE statements are released. Not expecting much from the Usd pairs today, what with Independence Day and tomorrow being NFP. Happy Independence Day!

I was thinking the same too SM. And I agree that there might not be a lot of move in the $ pairs today

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,118
  • Jul 4, 2013 6:40am Jul 4, 2013 6:40am
Price has rallied to break out of the 8600 level. If we close like this it changes things

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,119
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:17am Jul 4, 2013 8:17am
Bullish engulfing pattern on the Cable yesterday and overbought; rebound in sight for GbpUsd.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #2,120
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:47am Jul 4, 2013 8:47am
Quoting elisab
Bullish engulfing pattern on the Cable yesterday and overbought; rebound in sight for GbpUsd. {image}
Hi E

Have you factored in the price action today in your statement?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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