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Make Money Everyday - A Guide to Short-Term Trading

  • #1,301
  • Jun 21, 2013 12:38pm Jun 21, 2013 12:38pm
Good to be back!

Here's a trade I have been watching for awhile and now sometimes catch in the London afternoon (given that I'm in the right time zone for it at present).
It came to me from Chris Lori a few years ago but I'm sure it is something that is known to many.

  1. I generally start watching the 1H and 15M charts of pairs I trade around 4.30pm GMT
  2. I then look for pairs that are approaching, or have already exceeded, their ADR (I run a 5 day ADR in MT4)
  3. I look at HTF S/R areas that price is approaching; price may already have hit an area and be consolidating
  4. As we approach London Close I will place my order at a HL/LH off the bottom/top of the range or S/R area
  5. Today on the EJ you could have also waited for a set up mongo style at the figure and/or as price compressed at the top of the range

As I understand it (full disclosure; I'm no expert) this trade works on the premise that as the London boys are packing up it becomes less probable that any pushes will be made beyond S/R areas, especially if a pairs ADR has been exceeded. Making it far more probable that positions will be covered, flows change and boom we have a reaction.

Please correct me if any of that is incorrect.

Have a good weekend boys!

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  • #1,302
  • Jun 21, 2013 11:08pm Jun 21, 2013 11:08pm
Last chart I put up took the high overview approach - Giving an example of how price looks @ a higher time frame. This chart is from today's fun on the Eur/Jpy. I've highlighted the areas around the quarter levels. 129, 129.25, etc. This is how I originally started trading - looking @ price strictly off those levels - all trades for 25 pips (less spread of course - but i'll ignore that to keep this simple - there may be some slow learners out there like myself.)

Couple things I want to point out, which I've brought briefly before, but I'll rehash them here. This isn't an exact science. This is simply how I see Price and how it behaves. I started noticing that price respected the quarter levels in my trading - before I even started drawing lines on my chart. It was happening so often that I said - damn - let me put some lines on here and see if I'm going crazy - or if this is really happening. For me - yeah - it made total sense and was the version I used before I started with my MMED.

The other thing that I've noticed - again - not exact science - is that Price responds off of the whole numbers in 50 pip clips. So while usually it will do it's thing between the quarters - when it does reach a whole number - like @ 129 - when it runs down to 128.50 - and again @ 128 when it goes back up to 128.50. So something to just put in the back of your mind - use it for whatever it's worth.

Next chart I'll review again the MMED. I make no promises - hopefully though I'll be quicker with that chart than I was with this one.

Mongolian
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  • #1,303
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:53am Jun 25, 2013 6:53am
Hello to everyone.

I've been looking for price action strategies & came across this one. Very impressive. Also all the contibutors seem friendly & supportive.

I've read the thread & here's my first morning's chart. I'd really appreciate some feedback.

Looked in at the London open (blue vertical line). Price has fallen 25 pips to A so I'm looking for shorts.

As price moves up from A I place sell limit at B (1.3137). It's triggered but just gets stopped out at C.

I place sell stop at 1.3137 (same price as B), gets triggered at D. Question: should I have let price run through D & put a sell limit? Anyway, it's a winner at E (1.3125).

Price moves down & I place a sell limit triggered at F (same price as E). But I'm stopped out as price moves straight up.

Another Sell limit placed at 1.3137 (same price as B & D) & triggered at G. A winner at H (1.3125).

A sell limit placed at 1.3125 triggered at I, eventually a winner at J (1.3113).

Another sell limit placed at 1.3125 (same price as I) triggered at K, eventually stopped out at L.

Total for the morning: 3 losers & 3 winners for +18 pips.

If I could do this every morning I'll be very happy!

I'll post tomorrow as well.

Best wishes

Chon
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  • #1,304
  • Jun 25, 2013 8:13am Jun 25, 2013 8:13am
Quote
Question: should I have let price run through D & put a sell limit? Anyway, it's a winner at E (1.3125).

Nice looking chart - Thanks for dropping by and contributing. The answer to your question is it is up to you. I personally do like to have price run through and come back, but that doesn't have to be the way for you. Sometimes it just doesn't work out that way and having a the order sitting there to be picked up on the way down works as well. The important thing is to find what works for you, what you are comfortable with. Well done. Look forward to more charts!

Mongolian
  • #1,305
  • Jun 25, 2013 11:20am Jun 25, 2013 11:20am
Good to see some more posts

Thanks for the chart Mongo and welcome chon! Nicely traded this morning.

I've been working on using the ideas contained in this thread in combination with other technical factors to reduce the number of trades I take, and put together a plan for high probability set ups. The London Close post from a few days ago is one set up I've been looking at.

This is what I was looking for this morning on the EJ; trying to enter trades where there is a confluence of technical factors.
That is 'trying'...
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  • #1,306
  • Jun 26, 2013 5:23am Jun 26, 2013 5:23am
Chart from this morning and a video that relates to what we're doing here!

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Inserted Video
  • #1,307
  • Jun 26, 2013 1:34pm Jun 26, 2013 1:34pm
Just typed up a whole post and clicked a keyboard shortcut that navigated me away and lost my post!

OK..

Two London Close trades today, hope it's OK posting these here mongo.

1) NZDUSD

  1. Price hit HTF level as ADR was exceeded approaching LC window
  2. Bounced and then retraced to 38.2% fib which lined up with R2 and minor S/R on left
  3. 1st PT .25
  4. 2nd just beyond mR2
  5. Could have held some of the position down to R1; didn't have my crystal ball on hand though

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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2) GBPAUD

  1. Price hit HTF level as ADR was exceeded approaching LC window
  2. Bounced and then retraced to 38.2% that lined up with .75
  3. Chopped around a bit before hitting the figure; closed as second spike up was rejected
  4. Another trade as price retraced after hitting the figure

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  • #1,308
  • Jun 26, 2013 2:16pm Jun 26, 2013 2:16pm
Hi mongololian & nhen

Thanks for the comments.

Here's this morning's effort, I forgot to post it earlier. Another +18 pip day. Are the last couple of days typical? Mind you, when I look at the action during London pm/NY am session, the action looks more complex.

I notice your charts are often very zoomed out. Is there an advantage to this or just for ease of posting?

Tomorrow I will also try out tick charts & pivot points & post a chart.

Last question for today, do you guys look very far into the past when considering a trade or just look at recent history as seen on a single screen (ie last few hundred bars)?

Best wishes

cee
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  • #1,309
  • Jun 26, 2013 10:25pm Jun 26, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting nhen
Just typed up a whole post and clicked a keyboard shortcut that navigated me away and lost my post! OK.. Two London Close trades today, hope it's OK posting these here mongo. 1) NZDUSD Price hit HTF level as ADR was exceeded approaching LC window Bounced and then retraced to 38.2% fib which lined up with R2 and minor S/R on left 1st PT .25 2nd just beyond mR2 Could have held some of the position down to R1; didn't have my crystal ball on hand though{image} 2) GBPAUD Price hit HTF level as ADR was exceeded approaching LC window Bounced and...
Post all the charts you want my friend.
  • #1,310
  • Jun 26, 2013 10:33pm Jun 26, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting chon
Hi mongololian & nhen Thanks for the comments. Here's this morning's effort, I forgot to post it earlier. Another +18 pip day. Are the last couple of days typical? Mind you, when I look at the action during London pm/NY am session, the action looks more complex. I notice your charts are often very zoomed out. Is there an advantage to this or just for ease of posting? Tomorrow I will also try out tick charts & pivot points & post a chart. Last question for today, do you guys look very far into the past when considering a trade or just look at recent...
I personally would not classify anything as typical. I don't want to get in the trap of expecting the market and price to have a certain amount of action to it. The more you trade it - you will get a good idea for what kind of day/week you will get. It's hard to say. Obviously there's enough volatility there to get our attention - otherwise we wouldn't trade it. (like the GBP/EUR - just doesn't move, IMHO).

As far as being zoomed out - I do that just to get as much of the day's price in one image when posting. When I'm trading I don't have it that far our usually.

Looking back @ past price action in considering trade - I will usually look back @ how price behaved over the past day, not always to determine what my trade should be, but to get an idea of what kind of movement there has been. It can be beneficial certainly - one can see where price has stopped and made turns, etc. I personally don't get into that a whole lot. I want to keep my opinions separate from my trading. Opinions cost me money. So I just trade price as it comes.

Hope that helps. Nice looking chart. Congrats on another positive day!

Mongolian
  • #1,311
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:44am Jun 27, 2013 5:44am
My first day with tick charts. Off to a bad start. I looked to the left & saw a down move so thought short. But on a tick chart that's only mins. Had I taken a longer view then I might have seen long! So stopped out.

After looking at 15m, 5m & 1m charts I see that price is in a congestion zone. Watched price dance around the daily pivot. Decide to wait for a movement & retrace above 13038 for long or below 13025 for short.

After price broke down, I placed a sell limit at 13025 but it wasn't triggered although the chart showed a touch (discrepency between chart & broker price?).

So, at the end of the morning, -6 pips, but could have been better.

A couple of questions:-
Do you trade off pivot points or just use them for sup/res reference?
I couldn't see much more in my 20 tick chart than I could in 1 min chart. Am I missing something?

Best wishes

cee
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  • #1,312
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:13am Jun 27, 2013 7:13am
Quoting chon
Hi mongololian & nhen Thanks for the comments. Here's this morning's effort, I forgot to post it earlier. Another +18 pip day. Are the last couple of days typical? Mind you, when I look at the action during London pm/NY am session, the action looks more complex. I notice your charts are often very zoomed out. Is there an advantage to this or just for ease of posting? Tomorrow I will also try out tick charts & pivot points & post a chart. Last question for today, do you guys look very far into the past when considering a trade or just look at recent...
For me I personally start my day marking recent levels on the 15M and 5M chart, then I move to the 1H/4H/Daily and mark any bigger levels; I also mark yesterday's high, yesterday's low and my pivots.
I find this just gives me an idea of where possible turning points are which can keep me out of some unnecessary trades (conversely also some profitable ones too).
In the end it comes down to what you are comfortable with (sounding like mongo here..), and that requires a lot of back and forward testing.

I have my charts zoomed out while I trade because I find it gives me a better/wider look at recent PA, I also flip between my tick chart (I run a 125 tick now) and 15M/1H etc.
  • #1,313
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:13am Jun 27, 2013 7:13am
Quoting mongolian
{quote} Post all the charts you want my friend.
  • #1,314
  • Jun 27, 2013 7:34am Jun 27, 2013 7:34am
Quoting chon
My first day with tick charts. Off to a bad start. I looked to the left & saw a down move so thought short. But on a tick chart that's only mins. Had I taken a longer view then I might have seen long! So stopped out. After looking at 15m, 5m & 1m charts I see that price is in a congestion zone. Watched price dance around the daily pivot. Decide to wait for a movement & retrace above 13038 for long or below 13025 for short. After price broke down, I placed a sell limit at 13025 but it wasn't triggered although the chart showed a touch (discrepency...
Yeah not much fun this morning on the EU, or EJ really, not a lot of movement.

That chart for me is tricky as I generally don't take trades around the DP when in a range like that. You would have wanted to have been long initially if following rough rules in this thread at 3025, but the DP is an issue for me and I'm not sure I would have taken it. I would have taken that short at 3025.

I like the ticks for my lowest TF, but I do zoom out as I find it all a bit noisy if zoomed in, and unable to see the forest for the trees.

I trade off the pivots if they align with another level, or close to it, and we are actually moving.

One stop isn't bad for a choppy morning, nice work for not getting impatient and trying any silly trades. I have done this and still do it in my weak moments, so you're smarter than me
  • #1,315
  • Jun 28, 2013 10:36am Jun 28, 2013 10:36am
Well, didn't get any trades at all this morning (I can only do London morning session). Then I missed the afternoon action.

Does anyone have a procedure to deal with these congestion zones (like today & yesterday morning) about 10 - 20 pips wide? Do you wait until price clears one of the grid lines outside & above or below the zone? Yesterday I was tempted to trade the extremes of the range, but resisted!

Looking forward to next week as my first full one with this method.

I hope you all have a good weekend.

cee
  • #1,316
  • Jun 29, 2013 1:18am Jun 29, 2013 1:18am
Hi mongolian, great thread you have here! I really like the way you're trading because I'm experimenting with something very similar on the 4 hour chart for E/U. I saw one of your chart where you used 250pips separation. It's almost in line with what I'm playing around with (currently using 200 pips).

I never thought about bringing this into a day trading level but your thread has gotten me intrigued. I have a quick question if you don't mind. This is one of your older charts but I was just curious why sometimes a level wasn't traded. So for example in this chart (circled green), why wasn't a short placed there?

Thanks !
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  • #1,317
  • Jun 29, 2013 11:41pm Jun 29, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting biDc
Hi mongolian, great thread you have here! I really like the way you're trading because I'm experimenting with something very similar on the 4 hour chart for E/U. I saw one of your chart where you used 250pips separation. It's almost in line with what I'm playing around with (currently using 200 pips). I never thought about bringing this into a day trading level but your thread has gotten me intrigued. I have a quick question if you don't mind. This is one of your older charts but I was just curious why sometimes a level wasn't traded. So for example...

Thanks for the comments. Reason that wasn't traded?? Sometimes I miss things. Nice catch.

Mongolian
  • #1,318
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:51pm Jul 5, 2013 3:51pm
I'm testing it out on G/J with 100pip wide on hourly chart. First trade completed
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  • #1,319
  • Jul 5, 2013 9:30pm Jul 5, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting biDc
I'm testing it out on G/J with 100pip wide on hourly chart. First trade completed {image}

Nice Trade. One thing I've noticed - our mind will see whatever it wants to see. I've put lines on every ten pips and price respects those levels. I've divided the quarters into thirds and had lines drawn pretty much every 8 pips and price respects that. I've drawn lines on the quarters and then had extra lines drawn 5 pips on either side of the quarters and price respects that.

What is key here is to get a system or an edge that works for you and then work the hell out of it. Once you own it - there is nothing that can stop you. The streets are paved with gold!

Mongolian
  • #1,320
  • Jul 6, 2013 2:46pm Jul 6, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting biDc
I'm testing it out on G/J with 100pip wide on hourly chart. First trade completed {image}
if you are not familiar with this pair i would advise caution --- she is a wild beast.
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