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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #41
  • Jun 21, 2013 12:12pm Jun 21, 2013 12:12pm
I know I might sound a bit pushy here but believe me am persistent more than anything and these answers will help us all
Thank you
  • #42
  • Jun 21, 2013 12:29pm Jun 21, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} good to see you having success with MA system thats very encouraging with regards to your last comment does that mean you would look for a better opportunity option 4 ?

option 4 yes, I will stick a chart in next post
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #43
  • Jun 21, 2013 12:46pm Jun 21, 2013 12:46pm
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tricky one, as I do not know time scale nor the pair but,,,
A = support level
B = bounce off sma
C = resistance level
D =Inside bar which got busted
E = out side bar
F =I would expect the move to go higher and having another indie for confirmation or just to use as reference

like I said , I would leave this alone but perhaps What if I was in from the start.

I trade open range breakout, inside/outside bars and levels but I am trying out a ema crossover , be good guys
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #44
  • Jun 21, 2013 12:59pm Jun 21, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting billytt
{image} tricky one, as I do not know time scale nor the pair but,,, A = support level B = bounce off sma C = resistance level D =Inside bar which got busted E = out side bar F =I would expect the move to go higher and having another indie for confirmation or just to use as reference like I said , I would leave this alone but perhaps What if I was in from the start. I trade open range breakout, inside/outside bars and levels but I am trying out a ema crossover , be good guys
good & well structured analysis thanks billytt
  • #45
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:02pm Jun 21, 2013 1:02pm
my little girl (9 at the time) started me thinking about cross overs, she was actually trading a 20/2 ema cross and she has over a 90% hit rate lol, she normally goes for 10 to 20 pips but one day she forgot about trade and hit over 200 pips lol.
I was telling her how these systems fail but she actually proved me wrong.
2 or 3 days ago I was telling her what happens when it ranges?? I then had to explain to her RANGING,, she then said only an idiot would trade when its ranging lol. She did say though it was possible to lose on the first trade.. she was trading only the e/u.
she has not traded for a few weeks as she now likes to sell goods on ebay, what a girl lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #46
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:08pm Jun 21, 2013 1:08pm
Attached Image


this is more my style A = outside bar and B = inside bars, B was good as it was bouncing off the sma before moving up.
I do not count the sunday opening..
this is a daily chart but I would of had any confirmation off shorter time scale, but these daily time frames normally go on good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #47
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:11pm Jun 21, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting billytt
my little girl (9 at the time) started me thinking about cross overs, she was actually trading a 20/2 ema cross and she has over a 90% hit rate lol, she normally goes for 10 to 20 pips but one day she forgot about trade and hit over 200 pips lol. I was telling her how these systems fail but she actually proved me wrong. 2 or 3 days ago I was telling her what happens when it ranges?? I then had to explain to her RANGING,, she then said only an idiot would trade when its ranging lol. She did say though it was possible to lose on the first trade.....
very intelligent girl indeed , am sure it wouldn't take her long to make it to the top with this sort of sharpness
  • #48
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:17pm Jun 21, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} very intelligent girl indeed , am sure it wouldn't take her long to make it to the top with this sort of sharpness
she has no idea how markets work, is this a good thing??? I always say keep it simple and I never speak about what is going to happen, I trade lines/triggers but she sees a simple cross and trades it, these only happen a few times per week. I found out the other day what she calls only trade after a rainbow this way you do not hit ranges except for the first one (if it happens).
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:19pm Jun 21, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting billytt
{image} this is more my style A = outside bar and B = inside bars, B was good as it was bouncing off the sma before moving up. I do not count the sunday opening.. this is a daily chart but I would of had any confirmation off shorter time scale, but these daily time frames normally go on good
billytt kindly explained 2 ways of looking at that chart which was very helpful

any other views?

please refer to post no12 to understand what we are looking for , thanks
  • #50
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:24pm Jun 21, 2013 1:24pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2106C.PNG Size: 81 KB


A and B are rainbows lol, ok they only have 3 colours but their is a definite gap between the indies like 10 pips before the candle moves through them,, I traded both of these today NOT for the full max pips
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #51
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:26pm Jun 21, 2013 1:26pm
last post, ok they were in 20 pip blocks, even better and yes I traded one yeaterday and one today and only with e/j, be good guys
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #52
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:38pm Jun 21, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} she has no idea how markets work, is this a good thing??? I always say keep it simple and I never speak about what is going to happen, I trade lines/triggers but she sees a simple cross and trades it, these only happen a few times per week. I found out the other day what she calls only trade after a rainbow this way you do not hit ranges except for the first one (if it happens).
the rainbow concept although not new, is very interesting especially when it comes from a 9 yr old , I will come back to this concept and discuss it in more detail but thanks for bringing it up
  • #53
  • Jun 21, 2013 1:41pm Jun 21, 2013 1:41pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} the rainbow concept although not new, is very interesting especially when it comes from a 9 yr old , I will come back to this concept and discuss it in more detail but thanks for bringing it up
rainbow concept lol, well that is new to me,, how about if we use 7 indies all different colours like a real rainbow,,,joking, catch you later
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #54
  • Jun 22, 2013 8:40am Jun 22, 2013 8:40am
Hope everyone having a good weekend, anyone keen to check the quiz in post 12 and give us some answers today, and I promise in return you will get some useful infromation
Thank you
  • #55
  • Jun 22, 2013 12:31pm Jun 22, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting shahroor
now lets look at this chart with 50 SMA, we dont really know what currency and what date and we're going to make a decision based on what we see only you have four options here 1- Wait for a retracement and then go long 2- Jump on now and go long 3- Go short 4- look for a better opportunity please share your views there is no right or wrong {image}
Guys I will share with you my view with all thanks and respect to the ones who answered

Although I haven't had many responses so far but lets ask ourselves why no body chose option 2 to go long now

Is it because we humans prefers to buy low ,or is it that we feel uncomfortable when markets reaches new highs and the fear that markets has run too far and is going to turn on us as soon as we enter a trade

I don't think buying low works in trading Forex with leverage , to me it is more of an investing strategy or might be suitable for specific markets other than Forex. This is a problem we all have in trading and it really helps to adjust the way we perceive price

This takes us back to issue number 1 with MA system which was entries
so in summary :
why wait for retracement when the market has been making higher highs and even when it does retrace we don't know where its going to stop, and whether there is a change in tend and it will just continue moving south.

Do you see where am coming from , at least if we go long we know for sure that markets has momentum, making higher highs and at that point there are buyers willing to pay that high price hence the move higher.
  • #56
  • Jun 22, 2013 3:58pm Jun 22, 2013 3:58pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} Guys I will share with you my view with all thanks and respect to the ones who answered Although I haven't had many responses so far but lets ask ourselves why no body chose option 2 to go long now Is it because we humans prefers to buy low ,or is it that we feel uncomfortable when markets reaches new highs and the fear that markets has run too far and is going to turn on us as soon as we enter a trade I don't think buying low works in trading Forex with leverage , to me it is more of an investing strategy or might be suitable for specific...
I did say , I would never of traded this at that time but looking at the chart I would expect it to go up,, STILL even if it longed 100/200/300 I would have no regrets ,,these sorts of trade should be left alone at that stage. be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #57
  • Jun 22, 2013 4:36pm Jun 22, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} I did say , I would never of traded this at that time but looking at the chart I would expect it to go up,, STILL even if it longed 100/200/300 I would have no regrets ,,these sorts of trade should be left alone at that stage. be good
Thanks for your comment but why you think it should be left alone when you expect it to go higher ?
  • #58
  • Jun 22, 2013 8:19pm Jun 22, 2013 8:19pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting billytt
my little girl (9 at the time) started me thinking about cross overs, she was actually trading a 20/2 ema cross and she has over a 90% hit rate lol, she normally goes for 10 to 20 pips but one day she forgot about trade and hit over 200 pips lol. I was telling her how these systems fail but she actually proved me wrong. 2 or 3 days ago I was telling her what happens when it ranges?? I then had to explain to her RANGING,, she then said only an idiot would trade when its ranging lol. She did say though it was possible to lose on the first trade.....

Hey billy... is this the same nine yr old who told you that
you was explaining elliot wave theory wrong also...??

she is quite remarkable I must say...
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #59
  • Jun 22, 2013 8:32pm Jun 22, 2013 8:32pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Moving averages represent the average period of time price was in such or any move.....
Therefore as stated before if used in conjunction with the proper PA skills they can be
extremely useful....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ah.gif Size: 31 KB
One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #60
  • Jun 23, 2013 12:08am Jun 23, 2013 12:08am
Quoting shahroor
The good thing about moving averages as pureprice kindly mentioned is direction which is an essential part of any strategy therefore moving average is a good base for any trading system however there are problems such as 1- delayed entries which we could live with 2- delayed exit which could wipe all our profits by the time the MA gives exit signal 3- choppy makrets can any one list any other problems you encountered


A pure technician relies on price alone as price truly is KING. Any averaging system is a disaster in waiting.
The road to pipland is arduous and fraught with challenge.
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