AUD at a critical support level - if it can break below 9470 - we should go to atleast 9400/9380. Fundamentals not supporting the Aussie in the short term and a rate hike probability is diminishing. Aussie is a high-yeild currency and could lose investor appeal very very quickly. I am taking a short at 9505 with a SL at 9650 and TP (1st lot) at 9400 {image}
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First post in this thread) it was in 2008. Funny thing is that in 2013 we again here)
{quote} Several factors: * AUD is a commodity currency so high demand for Aussie resources in China will infuse the Aussie economy with money; * More money means higher inflation and higher salaries; * Higher inflation and salaries means higher interest rates in an attempt to curb spending; * The USD is dead... and will continue to drop in value for quite some time longer; I'm betting long on the Aussie... long term investment with a 5 year horizon. TrevA
{quote} I think Aussie is going to create a new low..
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Will see. It's not far. OZ traded quite stable today comparing to others. Maybe it just felt more than other in previous days. It's Friday I don't expect any significant move till the end of the session. Still think we can see a small lift on profit taking but maybe it was already done before.
China's economy is more resilient than what people think. Fundamentally, export for Australia will remain strong ahead. Although I will bet with longs with the current attractive price, but looking at charts, I could not find any reason for long. I will be watching for a break back above .9325 for bulls to be confident again. A break above .9425 will gives a stronger reversal confirmation.
This is very unusual.. while the dollar index and Yen are kicking others ass the AUD seems to hold the down move pretty good.
I wanna see how it will react when the stocks will actually go high next week..
ALMOST ALL OF WALL STREET'S TOP BOND FIRMS THINK THE U.S. FED WILL START PULLING BACK ON BUYING BONDS BY THE END OF THIS YEAR, WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION SEEING A PULLBACK BEGINNING IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF NEXT YEAR
FOREX-U.S. dollar on pace for best week since late 2011
{quote} It's Friday I don't expect any significant move till the end of the session. Still think we can see a small lift on profit taking but maybe it was already done before.
In the two days since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank expects to curb its big bond-buying program later this year, stocks tumbled, long-term interest rates rose and interest-rate futures contracts fell, meaning investors bet the Fed would raise short-term interest rates sooner than previously expected.
“The FOMC was more hawkish than we had expected,” economists at Goldman Sachs concluded after the Wednesday Fed policy meeting, a view widely held on Wall Street trading floors.
However, a close look at Mr. Bernanke’s press conference comments and Fed official’s interest-rate projections released after the meeting show the Fed took several steps aimed at sending the opposite signal.
–Mr. Bernanke emphasized that even though the Fed might pull back on bond-buying later this year — which is akin to easing your foot off the gas pedal of a car — it would be a long time before it took the more aggressive step of raising short-term interest rates — which is akin to pressing the brake. He also emphasized in his prepared statement that when rate increases come, they “are likely to be gradual,” a hint of future caution about rate increases he hasn’t given before.
–Mr. Bernanke suggested the Fed could keep short-term interest rates near zero even longer than previously planned. Since December, the Fed has said it would keep short-term rates near zero at least as long as the jobless rate is above 6.5%. In his prepared statement, Mr. Bernanke emphasized that rates could stay low for a while even after unemployment falls below 6.5%, particularly if inflation stays low. “The more subdued the outlook for inflation,” he said, “the more patient the [Fed] would likely be,” he said. In the question-and-answer session he went even further and said for the first time that the Fed might even lower that 6.5% threshold.
–Fifteen Fed officials expect the central bank won’t need to raise short-term interest rates until 2015 or 2016 and just four said it would need to do so before then. That was a slight move away from early tightening: Previously five anticipated tightening before 2015. The average short-term benchmark rate expected at the end of 2015 among Fed officials didn’t change much – it was 1.34%, compared to 1.30% in March. The median expected rate – meaning half saw one higher and half saw one lower – remained unchanged at 1%.
–Mr. Bernanke said “a strong majority” of Fed officials had concluded the Fed won’t ever sell its growing portfolio of mortgage-backed securities, and instead will let it shrink as mortgages are paid off. In the past the Fed had said it might someday sell these bonds, a threat to any investor who held the bonds. He was more emphatic than ever Wednesday about not selling.
–A hawk became a very vocal dove. St. Louis Fed president James Bullarddissented from the Fed’s policy statement, saying he thought the central bank should be leaning toward even easier money policies. In the past, Mr. Bullard has tended to side with Fed “hawks” opposed to easy money policies. In a statement his office released Friday morning, he argued that the Fed’s decision to lay out a plan for pulling back easy money was “inappropriately timed” because inflation and economic output have been soft.
–Mr. Bernanke emphasized the conditional nature of the Fed’s plan to withdraw bond-buying. “If you draw the conclusion that I’ve said that our policies, that our purchases, will end in the middle of next year, you’ve drawn the wrong conclusion, because our purchases are tied to what happens in the economy … we have no deterministic or fixed plan.”
Despite the Fed’s efforts to signal it wouldn’t apply the brakes any time soon, the market reacted sharply. Investors appear to have been caught off guard by the specific timetable Mr. Bernanke laid out and the central bank’s optimism about the 2014 growth outlook.
“People have come to expect that the Fed is going to err on the side of being more growth friendly,” said Michael Feroli, a J.P. Morgan economist. Investors wanted to hear “that he would see the job through and not take the punch bowl away until [the economy is] really getting going.”
In Eurodollar futures markets, expected three-month borrowing rates in December 2014 jumped from 0.55% to 0.76%. The expected federal funds rate in December 2014 rose from 0.28% to 0.385%. These movements imply investors see increasing odds of Fed rate increases by the end of 2014.
On Friday markets started to settle, with stocks opening moderately higher.
The market reaction underscores the challenge the Fed has created for itself by launching the bond-buying program and other unconventional efforts to boost economic growth. At some point it will have to exit from those programs and communicate clearly about how and when that will happen. Officials hope to accomplish both tasks without creating the kind of market turmoil that could set back the recovery they’ve tried to energize. This week’s events show how hard that will be.
The only statement from a Fed official since the meeting has come from Mr. Bullard .
Mr. Bullard was clearly worried about how the market would respond to the Fed’s decision to announce a timetable for winding down its bond buying. He “felt that a more prudent approach would be to wait for more tangible signs that the economy was strengthening and that inflation was on a path to return toward target before making such an announcement,” according to his statement.
Given the market turmoil that has since ensued, other Fed officials might now be wondering if he was right.
By Jon Hilsenrath The markets might be misreading the Federal Reserve’s messages.{image} Associated Press Traders work in front of a TV screen showing Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. In the two days since Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank expects to curb its big bond-buying program later this year, stocks tumbled, long-term interest rates rose and interest-rate futures contracts fell, meaning investors bet the Fed would raise short-term interest rates sooner than previously expected.“The FOMC was more hawkish than we had expected,” economists...
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So whats ur thoughts about the aud/usd if I may ask?
Picture is not clear. But it is always like this. As I post beforre you never know what can be next... but just look. Just FED say that they ready to start tappering soon talks that markets understood FED not correct started imidiately. Markets moving on ideas. Even don't know huw mach time world between two main ideas: european crisis and QE. Markets already did a lot of big moves depends which idea was strong more. Now just another round. So SSDD.
More and more people started to talked that OZ will be below 90, 85, 80 or even 70. Good sign because usually it's going on another direction. But idea is needed.
I don't want to do any forecast for now. Yesterday Robby write his in this thread ideas why OZ should go up. And I can say that I agree with him. Only one question how much we will go down from here. Interesting thing that OZ is very stable today. I want to see a break above 0.9310 and week closing above 0.9435 to say something about OZ rebound.
Before it I think we should go down. Not all long was stoped out) and 90 looks nice to test.
Since December, the Fed has said it would keep short-term rates near zero at least as long as the jobless rate is above 6.5%. In his prepared statement, Mr. Bernanke emphasized that rates could stay low for a while even after unemployment falls below 6.5%, particularly if inflation stays low. “The more subdued the outlook for inflation,” he said, “the more patient the [Fed] would likely be,” he said. In the question-and-answer session he went even further and said for the first time that the Fed might even lower that 6.5% threshold.
He said lower it from 6.5% to what? 7.0% ???? Originally the news was that two voting members of the FOMC said that there wouldn't be any easing until they saw job growth of 200,000 jobs per month for a period of 4 months in a row. And that had been the target all along. Does anyone look at the US economy and see it producing 200,000 jobs per month or falling to 6.5% or even 7.0% any time soon?? Just How many people can Walmart and McDonald's employ?
I don't think so and I think this whole thing is a bunch of crap and a major pump and dump is on by the Zionist owned media to make billions of dollars.
If you are longing the Dollar it would be a very good idea to be very cautious with your money at this time, this one smells to hell and high water! Remember the old saying ................"when everyone is saying buy its time to sell and when everyone is saying sell its time to buy" ??????
