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  • #59,581
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:50am Jun 20, 2013 11:50am
Quoting Max FX
The Aussie is getting hit from all directions and the outlook is not promising. The Fed inspired 'taper tantrum' & China's soft HSBC PMI are keeping AUD/USD pinned near near 3 year lows. It's pressing into the 38.2% Fib of Oct. '08- July '11 rally. Widening AU-US yield spreads offer no relief as Aussie bonds take a hit from big exposure from EM investors. Caterpillar announcing global 3-month rolling sales ending in May down 7% is another blow as mining shows no improvement. Copper may kick AUD/USD when it's down. Weekly charts show a massive head...

I understand all that...so what you are saying are the AUD T-Notes are going to spike...that is what will cause the AUD to head south? I do not think that will do it...not enough...at best you could hope for sideways.... You are correct about copper but look at that PA on that right side of the H&S...that could void the H&S. You could say that H&S is valid but not when the other are all together going up... Stuff like to run in groups... AUD is having problems...but all of those problems are priced in... What you have currently is what you haft to keep your eye on...that what you haft to stay focused on... What dose AUD do...they sell food, commodity, oil&gas, manufacturing... China is a good part of AUD...their are more ships going into and out of china every week and every month for the last few months... Why would their be an incress in ships going into and out of china? Is is because they have nothing todo so they are just buying stuff to sit?? Hmm...I do not think so... The reason why the ship traffic is up is because they are making more stuff... So what are they going to need to make that stuff? Stuff from AUD... thats why AUD exports are up...This is why the commodity are going sideways or moving up... If stuff is being shipped out of AUD....that means someone had to get it too the ships / airplanes. So that is gas, people, equipment...so their should be ECon activity in AUD to make that stuff get to the ships / airplanes... That means AUD should start seeing that in their numbers this month or next month... as far as the T-Notes...that could be a need for money to get that stuff exported...might be the reason for the AUD T-Note move...or it could be a cut down on the carry trade were they sold out of some gov notes and that is the reason...

All in all...I do not see on the "NOW" picture how or why the AUD will drop...the data right "NOW" just dose not support it...if the data changes then yes as I said...you get a move up on FOMC or the Econ activity right now in AUD drops off then yes we will get a leg down on AUD...we do not have that...we have the opposite of that right "NOW".... Haft to stay focused on the "NOW" picture not what has happen in the passed...Passed is the passed and that has minimum effect on the current status...
  • #59,582
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:50am Jun 20, 2013 11:50am
The Market seems to be just holding its breath right now and for good reason!
  • #59,583
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:57am Jun 20, 2013 11:57am
Is anybody still bearish?
  • #59,584
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:58am Jun 20, 2013 11:58am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} Can you tecnically explain why euro rebounded after quite qood US data? OZ holding. NZD falling. It's not only about technical view. It's people around. And everybody thinking in his own way.
all depends on how u interpred wave analysis. i use wave analysis a lot but sometimes i am confused by my own.
1. Who said that EU global trend now is down? On what basis. Ok i dont trade EU not interested very in that pair.
But can coment about GU. GU down to 1.54xx is that a global downtrend? NO ! Its a correction. I think this is a correction. Next target is 1.580.
So euro is stronger muck stronger than pound this year. So thats why its recovering.

About AUD.AUD acts differentlly than GU,EU. If it recovers it recovers in a days not in a weeks like others do.

So now waiting for 9040 and again will long that. if it will be needed i will put more to my capital. No matter how bad manipulators now are pushing it down. Believe me in coming weeks we will see 9600-9800 simply. if u are inverstor keep it to 1.0400.
  • #59,585
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:59am Jun 20, 2013 11:59am
Quoting Robby
{quote} I understand all that...so what you are saying are the AUD T-Notes are going to spike...that is what will cause the AUD to head south? I do not think that will do it...not enough...at best you could hope for sideways.... You are correct about copper but look at that PA on that right side of the H&S...that could void the H&S. You could say that H&S is valid but not when the other are all together going up... Stuff like to run in groups... AUD is having problems...but all of those problems are priced in... What you have currently is what you...
Nice opinion, I like the way you are thinking. But then we still have a mining boom slowing down, RBA thinking that OZ is still strong, as I remember ford was leaving Australia because of high costs and etc. At the end what about people and their fears? Maybe all this already priced in but they can find more ideas to move OZ down. And if you are so bullish can you please tell me where is your stop now?
  • #59,586
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:12pm Jun 20, 2013 12:12pm
Quoting Max FX
{quote} Nice opinion, I like the way you are thinking. But then we still have a mining boom slowing down, RBA thinking that OZ is still strong, as I remember ford was leaving Australia because of high costs and etc. At the end what about people and their fears? Maybe all this already priced in but they can find more ideas to move OZ down. And if you are so bullish can you please tell me where is your stop now?

So is the slow down still going on or is that something in the passed? Are the numbers going up or down? I bet you look at the numbers that come out...and you will find they are going up...just like someone in here pointed out the US job unemployment numbers are going up...not down...haft to go down for the FOMC to do something this year...that is not the case...

As far as my position. My stop is 300 ticks from the bottom of this horizontal area of support that the market is currently at. I am building my long positions, by the time I am done building my long positions I will have 30 lots long on the AUD. Will it go down from here, yes. I expect it too but not much. Will you see 85, no will you see 90...possible...will you see under 90? Maybe for a short time... That is about the max you could hope for.... Well you get a leg down, no...you haft to have data to support that move down...and that is not here currently....most you can hope for is stop hunting by traders who put their stops in the support area...after everyone has collected enough longs then we will move up...when that move up will be...I can not tell...my guess would be next week...or after US NFP...in a few weeks...
  • #59,587
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:21pm Jun 20, 2013 12:21pm
I sincerely with you good luck in this trade. And hope that we are right that Oz can recovery. If I asked you about stop, I have to ask about take profit). Should be something substantial if you have 300 pips stop loss.

BTW looks like guys return from lunch...
  • #59,588
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:27pm Jun 20, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting Max FX
I sincerely with you good luck in this trade. And hope that we are right that Oz can recovery. If I asked you about stop, I have to ask about take profit). Should be something substantial if you have 300 pips stop loss. BTW looks like guys return from launch...

For me I am going long until I see info that changes that picture to the short side. As far as were I would take profits, that is subjective. Market conditions are what drives that decision. Near 1...98 area you haft to look at it because first go on that area you will have a rejection of that area...but the market conditions well tell you what todo....when it is time to exit
  • #59,589
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:30pm Jun 20, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting Robby
{quote} For me I am going long until I see info that changes that picture to the short side. As far as were I would take profits, that is subjective. Market conditions are what drives that decision. Near 1...98 area you haft to look at it because first go on that area you will have a rejection of that area...but the market conditions well tell you what todo....when it is time to exit
Thanks for sharing. Good luck. If this small range will be broken than long term FIBO around 0.914 will be tested imho.
  • #59,590
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:33pm Jun 20, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting Max FX
{quote} Thanks for sharing. Good luck. If this small range will be broken than long term FIBO around 0.914 will be tested imho.

I am sure it will be...the 30 year support area is 92-90...so I am sure you will have a test of that area....
  • #59,591
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:56pm Jun 20, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting Robby
{quote} I am sure it will be...the 30 year support area is 92-90...so I am sure you will have a test of that area....
can you please tell me about 30 year support. What do you see here? I have a history from 1974 when Oz started free fall from 1.48 to 0.4774 in 2001. Than it rebounded to 0.9850 (50% retracement from 1974-2001) and fall again to 0.5971 (0.764). Later OZ hit 1.1080 (0.618 from big move 1974-2001) and now we are in correction from move 0.5971-1.1041. Retracements: 0.9130 (0.382); 0.8530 (0.5); 0.7935 (0.618); 0.72 (0.764). 90 is just big quote and psychology level. So I wondering why you are so sure that we won't see 0.8530 (50% FIBO retracement)? Why 90-89 should hold?. Like it easy to see on the OZ chart retracements work quite well. Question which one will stop OZ now....

I don't have expirence with wave analysis but I would like to hear what do they see on quartely chart.
  • #59,592
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:01pm Jun 20, 2013 1:01pm
Quoting Max FX
{quote} can you please tell me about 30 year support. What do you see here? I have a history from 1974 when Oz started free fall from 1.48 to 0.4774 in 2001. Than it rebounded to 0.9850 (50% retracement from 1974-2001) and fall again to 0.5971 (0.764). Later OZ hit 1.1080 (0.618 from big move 1974-2001) and now we are in correction from move 0.5971-1.1041. Retracements: 0.9130 (0.382); 0.8530 (0.5); 0.7935 (0.618); 0.72 (0.764). 90 is just big quote and psychology level. So I wondering why you are so sure that we won't see 0.8530 (50% FIBO retracement)?...

I use weekly and monthly data...you can see it on a chart especially if you use line charts...but I wrote computer programs to go in sql databases I have and give me the area were price was rejected from...this is one of those area were it has been rejected from many times... you can go look with a line chart on monthly data and put a horizontal line across around the 9150 area...and you should see the zone...I am talking about...
  • #59,593
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:10pm Jun 20, 2013 1:10pm
Quoting Robby
{quote} I am sure it will be...the 30 year support area is 92-90...so I am sure you will have a test of that area....
i agree. traders can have a strong influence on the aud by way of the various carry trade's that make advantage of the australia's interest rates. they are frightened by drops in the s+p and some of them flee each time it drops and the aud falls each time that happens. the tapering tap dance that has begun will probably trigger quite a few falls over the coming months like the one yesterday. the repeated exits from that carry trade will place steady downward pressure on the aud

on the fundamental front is china; we all know australia's dependence on chinese demand. i don't think people take reports of financial hazard in china seriously enough. the reality of international shipping (and levels of trade) are seen in the dry baltic index. it's back to levels from 2009...that should scare people into asking what the reality of commodity demand really is... and how bad the situation in china is really becoming

so yes, i think we'll see 90 real soon. in my opinion, it will not be supported there.
  • #59,594
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:11pm Jun 20, 2013 1:11pm
Robby, i am in the same boat as you, but since i am a kind of long term trader i am buy aussie from 94, and keep buying it through 0.80s if it reaches there. Also shorting eur/aud from 1,31 and gbp/aud 1,60s with adding positions. Since your lots are not big enough to damage your account in an oversold market, i think the return will be nice
Chief Member of 220 mph Riders Club...
  • #59,595
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:18pm Jun 20, 2013 1:18pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} i agree. traders can have a strong influence on the aud by way of the various carry trade's that make advantage of the australia's interest rates. they are frightened by drops in the s+p and some of them flee each time it drops and the aud falls each time that happens. the tapering tap dance that has begun will probably trigger quite a few falls over the coming months like the one yesterday. the repeated exits from that carry trade will place steady downward pressure on the aud on the fundamental front is china; we all know australia's dependence...

Only time will tell. My friend works high up in intel and is over in china all the time, he clued me in on how to get the total picture of in and out for shipping of china. The baltic index is okay but it is not the true in and out of china shipping. I will build up my 30 lots long buy the time it gets to 90 so I hope it dose make it down to 90 but I do not see that happening. I have been wrong in the passed so anything is possible...
  • #59,596
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:19pm Jun 20, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting Robby
{quote} I use weekly and monthly data...you can see it on a chart especially if you use line charts...but I wrote computer programs to go in sql databases I have and give me the area were price was rejected from...this is one of those area were it has been rejected from many times... you can go look with a line chart on monthly data and put a horizontal line across around the 9150 area...and you should see the zone...I am talking about...
30 years is a long time... my charts don't go back that far. but, more recently and very clearly there is an S/R level at .8000 going back to feb of 2004. it provided support most recently in may of 2010 and has the character of a clearly established pivot. go the the weekly chart and place a level at .8000 --- it's the dominant feature on that time frame --- very obvious. i can see it falling to that level and stopping.
  • #59,597
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:21pm Jun 20, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} 30 years is a long time... my charts don't go back that far. but, more recently and very clearly there is an S/R level at .8000 going back to feb of 2004. it provided support most recently in may of 2010 and has the character of a clearly established pivot. go the the weekly chart and place a level at .8000 --- it's the dominant feature on that time frame --- very obvious. i can see it falling to that level and stopping.
but of course that is merely a chartist's intuition
  • #59,598
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:22pm Jun 20, 2013 1:22pm
Quoting kanji
Robby, i am in the same boat as you, but since i am a kind of long term trader i am buy aussie from 94, and keep buying it through 0.80s if it reaches there. Also shorting eur/aud from 1,31 and gbp/aud 1,60s with adding positions. Since your lots are not big enough to damage your account in an oversold market, i think the return will be nice

I too am looking at shorting eur/aud at these levels too...It's in a parabolic move so I want to see some divergence or sometime to tell me we have a distribution or some kind of a pattern to stop the parabolic move up. But up here at 1.43 and above is a very good area...I might start building up a short here too...what I am currently looking at how to setup orders to sell into the move...
  • #59,599
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:27pm Jun 20, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} 30 years is a long time... my charts don't go back that far. but, more recently and very clearly there is an S/R level at .8000 going back to feb of 2004. it provided support most recently in may of 2010 and has the character of a clearly established pivot. go the the weekly chart and place a level at .8000 --- it's the dominant feature on that time frame --- very obvious. i can see it falling to that level and stopping.

Yes this is very true...but you haft to have some kind of news or data to get it down their to 80... with out news or data you haft to look at levels that are near the current price action... I agree with you if we have a new leg down...it will stop their but I do not see a new leg down...haft to have other data or news to make it get their... can you tell me besides want what would drive it down their?
  • #59,600
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:27pm Jun 20, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting Robby
{quote} Only time will tell. My friend works high up in intel and is over in china all the time, he clued me in on how to get the total picture of in and out for shipping of china. The baltic index is okay but it is not the true in and out of china shipping. I will build up my 30 lots long buy the time it gets to 90 so I hope it dose make it down to 90 but I do not see that happening. I have been wrong in the passed so anything is possible...
that's an interesting comment because finding "tells" about china is kind of a hobby for me: eg, rail-miles/ton-miles, power usage/capita, on-shore coal shipments, etc.

do you know what types of parameters your friend is using? most investors agree that the official state figures are always doctored
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