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AUD/USD

  • #59,561
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:34am Jun 20, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Robby
{quote} My money is on the long side...for aud... too much risk for it to keep going down....too many are short.... smart money will be long...that is why the big companies are building longs down here... their is a reason why... I learned to never go different than the big money is going. But I wish you well on your shorts....

And who told you ?? Well Just be careful. I maybe wrong but just stay safer side. The upper tradeline for the channel is .958 but the ultimate target is 0.88x for me. instead of longing do short on highs!
  • #59,562
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:37am Jun 20, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} If everything was so simple like you write here than it should be much more profitable traders. You never know...what can be next.
How true! I never expected such a big move up from the Dollar yesterday, I could understand 70 - 100 pips but not F-ing 350 pips!!!!

This move is all based on the Fed rumor of tampering with the bond purchases, but everyone seems to forget two FOMC voting members have said they need to see 200,000 jobs per month growth for 4 months in a row before they'd do anything.
  • #59,563
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:38am Jun 20, 2013 10:38am
Quoting namitak007
{quote} And who told you ?? Well Just be careful. I maybe wrong but just stay safer side. The upper tradeline for the channel is .958 but the ultimate target is 0.88x for me. instead of longing do short on highs!

Agree : But I am also with Long I hope AUS will Touch 95xx and My all 7 trade will gain some green pips
Few trade From 9415 Hope for the best
  • #59,564
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:39am Jun 20, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Murdetrain
{quote} 2 days ago I was at $3000, I am now at $5000. You know why? Because I listened to speculation that FOMC would continue with their stance of stopping tapering (1 rally), then after that there was a very high probability that the .U.S. news today would be good (which they were). Yes you are correct, its not that simple small complications can arise, but the overall probability that the USD will rise is much greater than if it will fall. How else do you trade other than buying the currency that is most favored to rise
Seriosly I glad. Main question what will be in one year. I know many traders. I know stories (real stories) like people made 1 mio with 10K account. And know guys who was able to made 100 % in short period of time. Main problem to hold it.
  • #59,565
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:44am Jun 20, 2013 10:44am
Tomorrow friday. OZ drop a lot. Peole can start closing positions (profit taking) before weekend and can lift OZ and most will believe that this is rebond. But it can be just profit taking move. Another thing that FED only suggesting that US economy is recovering. All world in the trouble. And there is no garantee that upcoming US data will be good. And again it will be talks that tapering won't start soon. So it's not easy in reality all this mess.
  • #59,566
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:45am Jun 20, 2013 10:45am
Quoting Murdetrain
{quote} 2 days ago I was at $3000, I am now at $5000. You know why? Because I listened to speculation that FOMC would continue with their stance of stopping tapering (1 rally), then after that there was a very high probability that the .U.S. news today would be good (which they were). Yes you are correct, its not that simple small complications can arise, but the overall probability that the USD will rise is much greater than if it will fall. How else do you trade other than buying the currency that is most favored to rise
You do know the move here on aud from up above 1 to here is the fomc talking about they might slow down tapering...you hear it from ben yesterday the full story were he start talking about it last month....taper will not start to end until sometime next year. The data will haft to vastly improve for us to move up tapering. FOMC will not be off tapering until 2015 if they do start in 2014... You have seen the move for FOMC....Its over with... You know sell the rumor....rumor has been out for over a month!!! You are betting on AUD to go down even more because of Ben and FOMC then you are going to get taken out of your short position with your stop...

Their has to be other news / econ to make the AUD drop...or make the $ move up...what you have here is just the $ being reposition. Not a move into the $...beside FOMC slowing down QE is not a reason to buy the $...US ECon is not in very good shape...it's actually hanging on by some small threads...inflation is kicking in from the QE ben has done right now and that is killing any upside that is happening in the US...why ben is doing this...trying to get the markets ready for next year when they will start coming off this QE... If they do not then they will have runaway inflation and be like japan.

So you are betting on Ben and FOMC to move the AUD down from here...good luck...you need something else!!!!!! Now when Ben / FOMC do start then you will see the move you are looking for right now... But that is not now...that is off until next year.....
  • #59,567
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:48am Jun 20, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Robby
So you are betting on Ben and FOMC to move the AUD down from here...good luck...you need something else!!!!!!
China bubbles and economy slow down. Falling commodity prices and etc. All it not in OZ favour. But it can be easily changed by another idea which we don't know yet.
  • #59,568
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:49am Jun 20, 2013 10:49am
Quoting Robby
{quote} You do know the move here on aud from up above 1 to here is the fomc talking about they might slow down tapering...you hear it from ben yesterday the full story were he start talking about it last month....taper will not start to end until sometime next year. The data will haft to vastly improve for us to move up tapering. FOMC will not be off tapering until 2015 if they do start in 2014... You have seen the move for FOMC....Its over with... You know sell the rumor....rumor has been out for over a month!!! You are betting on AUD to go down...
GOOD Job ::
  • #59,569
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:53am Jun 20, 2013 10:53am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} And you seriously think that you will be able to hold potential 20+ big quotes loss?
why shouldnt be able? I think AUD will hit maximum 8500 this year. U have head or what. Find me any technical reason why it should go below 8500?
  • #59,570
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:56am Jun 20, 2013 10:56am
Quoting Trader88q
{quote} why shouldnt be able? I think AUD will hit maximum 8500 this year. U have head or what. Find me any technical reason why it should go below 8500?
I said potential. Because as I say before you never know. What will be with your faith if it go lower? And I don't like suffering for months looking how my account bleeding...
  • #59,571
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:58am Jun 20, 2013 10:58am
Pimco's Bill Gross framed the debate perfectly that investors and trading desks around the world will be having in the days ahead. His view is that the Fed is making a bad bet by forecasting a cyclical upswing in the economy and thus laying the path to higher rates. He believes (as do I) that the economy's problems are more structural in nature and higher rates will further expose its weaknesses and QE-inspired overindulgences. So far markets are following the template of 1994 and behaving as one might expect after a long period of low rates. But the question one must now ask is, if the Fed is right, and we are on the verge of better growth, these dislocations will provide excellent buying opportunities in spread product, EM, etc. But if they're wrong, and as ugly as it's been in the last 24 hours, this is only the beginning.



Talks already started)
  • #59,572
  • Jun 20, 2013 10:59am Jun 20, 2013 10:59am
Quoting Robby
{quote} You do know the move here on aud from up above 1 to here is the fomc talking about they might slow down tapering...you hear it from ben yesterday the full story were he start talking about it last month....taper will not start to end until sometime next year. The data will haft to vastly improve for us to move up tapering. FOMC will not be off tapering until 2015 if they do start in 2014... You have seen the move for FOMC....Its over with... You know sell the rumor....rumor has been out for over a month!!! You are betting on AUD to go down...

How about the fact that the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index has been the highest all year?
  • #59,573
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:00am Jun 20, 2013 11:00am
Quoting Trader88q
{quote} why shouldnt be able? I think AUD will hit maximum 8500 this year. U have head or what. Find me any technical reason why it should go below 8500?
Can you tecnically explain why euro rebounded after quite qood US data? OZ holding. NZD falling. It's not only about technical view. It's people around. And everybody thinking in his own way.
  • #59,574
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:09am Jun 20, 2013 11:09am
BTW China is the biggest trading partner for Australia.

LONDON, June 20 (IFR) - Gravity defying money market rates are usually a signal of a market that has stopped functioning, and this is just such a scenario that the PBoC now confronts [ID:nIFR5N28xs]. But as the PBoC looks to teach banks a lesson on responsibility, it also risks a wider financial crisis. There is talk that the PBoC engaged in a targeted injection of liquidity providing CNY 50 bnl of funds at 5.1% overnight and 5.4% for 7-day funding.


Whether this targeted liquidity approach happened is going to be difficult to confirm, but the cries for help can be seen in money market rates. Preventing bank failures and defaults is likely to lead the PBoC to inject liquidity, maybe as soon as Friday. But this will still leave the problem of ensuring that it has regained sufficient control over credit/money supply.


The question and concern for the market is whether the PBoC's actions, while well intended, are enough to lead to a more lasting impact to the financial system and the economy. The fear over a bursting of the credit bubble in China has finally found a potential trigger. The PBoC should keep in mind two lessons from the financial crisis over the last few years: 1) policymakers should be cautoius about the unintended consequences of their actions, and 2) that the tentacles of excessive risk taking can reach much further and deeper than expected.



Even if the PBoC comes in with more liquidity, this is the time to stay cautious.

IFR
  • #59,575
  • Edited 11:24am Jun 20, 2013 11:11am | Edited 11:24am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} China bubbles and economy slow down. Falling commodity prices and etc. All it not in OZ favour. But it can be easily changed by another idea which we don't know yet.

All of your China / FOMC / Commodity prices have been priced in... Your commodity get priced in that day...if you haven't noticed most of your commodity haft either stop going down and going sideways or they are starting an uptrend...except for gold...last one to make it's turn. Gold still has some more to move down before it will make its turn.

So what else do you have that will make the AUD go south? I cannot not see any reason for it to break through the major support area right here...were we are at the top of that support area... What is going to move it through that area?? Not China...their shipping rate is up...that is why the commodity have gone sideways or up trending...not a cut on QE by FOMC...because their was no cut on QE...that cut is next year....so what is going to push it through this area?? I would really like to know what that is....

Sorry...as much as WILL and HOPE of all the shorts have together...will not be enough to move the AUD down...it has to be something REAL...like AUD 1/2 their GDP....or cut rates....or FOMC get a NFP of 500K....Then you will get a drop...short of that all the WILL and HOPE will get you stop out of the shorts....
  • #59,576
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:24am Jun 20, 2013 11:24am
The Aussie is getting hit from all directions and the outlook is not promising. The Fed inspired 'taper tantrum' & China's soft HSBC PMI are keeping AUD/USD pinned near near 3 year lows. It's pressing into the 38.2% Fib of Oct. '08- July '11 rally. Widening AU-US yield spreads offer no relief as Aussie bonds take a hit from big exposure from EM investors. Caterpillar announcing global 3-month rolling sales ending in May down 7% is another blow as mining shows no improvement. Copper may kick AUD/USD when it's down. Weekly charts show a massive head & shoulders pattern with price just above the neckline (3.07). If the neckline breaks, copper may drop drastically. AUD/USD could follow, clear the 38.2% Fib & make runs at support near 0.8800 (Aug. '10 low) followed by 0.8050/60 (May '10 low).
IFR

All this data just personal opiniond and suggestions. I really would like to see OZ up but at the moment I am not sure what leg will be next. We are close to support right. Will see will it be able to hold.
  • #59,577
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:25am Jun 20, 2013 11:25am
Wew nice review guys especially max Fx n Robby
  • #59,578
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:40am Jun 20, 2013 11:40am
Don't trust the USD this movement is based on rumor unemployment claims are up again and the Fed isn't going to tamper this year.
  • #59,579
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:41am Jun 20, 2013 11:41am
Quoting irongoose
Don't trust the USD this movement is based on rumor unemployment claims are up again and the Fed isn't going to tamper this year.
will they increase it ????
loll
  • #59,580
  • Jun 20, 2013 11:43am Jun 20, 2013 11:43am
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} will they increase it ???? loll
Why wouldn't that surprise me?
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