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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #25,861
  • Jun 16, 2013 12:55pm Jun 16, 2013 12:55pm
Hi trademin,


thanks for your fast reply. I actually dont know anymore what the pair of the screenshot was, but it happens on GBPUSD, EurUSD, EURJPYt, USDJPYt pairs but NOT for EUR/GBPt. Thats strange. In my MT4 platform I have for EURUSD in total 5 digits, 4 of them after the dot. I will try to download another version of the MACD template and see if it works. Do you have a working MACD template or also that of this site?
  • #25,862
  • Jun 17, 2013 11:31am Jun 17, 2013 11:31am
Quoting Myrmica
Hi trademin, thanks for your fast reply. I actually dont know anymore what the pair of the screenshot was, but it happens on GBPUSD, EurUSD, EURJPYt, USDJPYt pairs but NOT for EUR/GBPt. Thats strange. In my MT4 platform I have for EURUSD in total 5 digits, 4 of them after the dot. I will try to download another version of the MACD template and see if it works. Do you have a working MACD template or also that of this site?

go take a look at post 25280.

I use 102 decimal (4 digits after the dot)
Yvon
  • #25,863
  • Jun 17, 2013 4:11pm Jun 17, 2013 4:11pm
QUESTION TIME :

Hi guys,
Bar closing time right now and I see the UJ making a reasonable attempt at a TC from the 21ma.
What would you do right now and why ????

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-06-18_0859.png Size: 66 KB
  • #25,864
  • Edited 5:38pm Jun 17, 2013 4:58pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting binnie
QUESTION TIME : Hi guys, Bar closing time right now and I see the UJ making a reasonable attempt at a TC from the 21ma. What would you do right now and why ???? {image}
binnie, let's have a view here, --- I am not familiar with yen, so it is based on just technical...price knows his direction, we just react on it...
the daily is oversold, on a way to make a RB,- on the 4hrs chart, macd divergence , I see a inverted head and shoulder- so price on a mild up trend.- the pursue of the down trend, at that point, for me, would need the price to show a break of that mild correction, my view,
sure if price breaks, it could go fast!--- But what about your taughts, do you have something on the back burner?
Yvon
  • #25,865
  • Jun 17, 2013 5:56pm Jun 17, 2013 5:56pm
Thanks trademin, the MACD works now. Lets see if this strategy works too for me.
  • #25,866
  • Jun 17, 2013 6:23pm Jun 17, 2013 6:23pm
Quoting Myrmica
Thanks trademin, the MACD works now. Lets see if this strategy works too for me.

just by curiosity, what version did you take?
Yvon
  • #25,867
  • Edited Jun 18, 2013 6:06am Jun 17, 2013 9:11pm | Edited Jun 18, 2013 6:06am
AUDUSD:
there is a nice one: head and shoulders: price broke the 21ema( in blue), pulled back , now on the move away... I guess there is a trade there, who knows...

divergence is on the shoulders,

now on the 1hr chart...beautifull move away...

I opened orders: averaging .9544

first target: .9454 or so... TARGET REACHED
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h4-oanda-corporation-head-and-shoulders.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h1-oanda-corporation-beautifull.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h4-ava-financial-ltd-130617audusd.png Size: 42 KB
Yvon
  • #25,868
  • Jun 17, 2013 11:28pm Jun 17, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting trademin
AUDUSD: there is a nice one: head and shoulders: price broke the 21ema( in blue), pulled back , now on the move away... I guess there is a trade there, who knows... divergence is on the shoulders, now on the 1hr chart...beautifull move away... I opened orders: averaging .9544 first target: .9454 or so... {image} {image}

Hi Yvon - Your Oanda Charts give a slightly different picture to mine so I am just trying to follow what you have seen and acted on. I can understand your reasoning to play a short here because the Rythym told you there was good reason to take part. Hindsight is great and I can now see there was a probable entry of the H1 even if it was rejected at the BRN 0.9500. Your H1 entry & mine are exactly the same so you would grab a quick 40 odd pips. I am not certain yet whether we are going down further. My gut feeling says there could be a healthy CT retrace back to the 21 on H4 supported by a RB.
The other main interest to me here is the BRN supporting a 50 Fib retrace in this recent Uptrend marked by Yellow T/L.
Just shows you though how 2 traders have different views.
Wish I had your Eye in these matters - I would never even considered there to be 40 Pips for the taking if I had not taken the time to really digest that chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_setup_18jun.png Size: 95 KB
  • #25,869
  • Jun 18, 2013 1:37am Jun 18, 2013 1:37am
Quoting trademin
{quote} just by curiosity, what version did you take?

I took version 103 where to all numbers a 0 is added. Your decimal version is also working fine.
  • #25,870
  • Jun 18, 2013 7:04am Jun 18, 2013 7:04am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Yvon - Your Oanda Charts give a slightly different picture to mine so I am just trying to follow what you have seen and acted on. I can understand your reasoning to play a short here because the Rythym told you there was good reason to take part. Hindsight is great and I can now see there was a probable entry of the H1 even if it was rejected at the BRN 0.9500. Your H1 entry & mine are exactly the same so you would grab a quick 40 odd pips. I am not certain yet whether we are going down further. My gut feeling says there could be a healthy...
there is my view:
hi binnie,

Hi Yvon - Your Oanda Charts give a slightly different picture to mine so I am just trying to follow what you have seen and acted on.

- As mentioned: first I saw couples of tops

2. I looked for a possible divergence somehow.

3. I saw head and shoulders- with shoulders diverging from macd,( macd 's right shoulder is lower)

4.I wanted to take short, but while having confirmation of that direction.

5. the confirmation: price broke the trend line (yellow) (so a pull back should be coming soon, which happened)

:price crosses the 89 sma (so a pull back should be coming soon, which happened)

: TC was on the 1hr chart

I can understand your reasoning to play a short here because the Rhythm told you there was good reason to take part.

When there are figures: RT, RB, then I look for possible HS on the making. When this happens, anticipation of market behaviour is almost predictable so the rhythm.

6. I entered multiple lots with confidence.

Hindsight is great and I can now see there was a probable entry of the H1 even if it was rejected at the BRN 0.9500.

levels just follows the formation in progress.

Your H1 entry & mine are exactly the same so you would grab a quick 40 odd pips. I am not certain yet whether we are going down further.

the projection from the HS is about 160 pips from the break, so first target is aprox 20/25 pips lower than my target price, so my target was conservative

My gut feeling says there could be a healthy CT retrace back to the 21 on H4 supported by a RB.

I went to sleep, so I protected my trades with only the first target insight (closed there now)

if you trace a trend line at the bottom of macd, you will see that there is a break of it. So, from seeing that, I conclude that price could go lower since macd could go lower. I could be wrong- a double bottom could be in the card in the macd, thus making a RB eventually.

The other main interest to me here is the BRN supporting a 50 Fib retrace in this recent Uptrend marked by Yellow T/L.

the level are at lower value when there is a figure in sight. figures are people actions, while levels are levels only. as example, just looking at HS projection: I am not looking at level but possible projection…which is the last bottom.(a confirmation in itself, since the rules mentioned that the last bottom is your first target)


Just shows you though how 2 traders have different views.

What matters is to see the market behaviour. If you can see tops and bottoms, look for divergence, rhythm, and TC or RB will fit in its place- the idea is to anticipate what is going to happen considering what you have learned from this Strategy.


Wish I had your Eye in these matters - I would never even considered there to be 40 Pips for the takingfile:///C:UsersYvonAppDataLocalTempmsohtml11clip_image001.gif if I had not taken the time to really digest that chart.file:///C:UsersYvonAppDataLocalTempmsohtml11clip_image002.gif


hoping it could help you,
Yvon
  • #25,871
  • Jun 18, 2013 7:17am Jun 18, 2013 7:17am
maybe just adding something else here...

already in the chart above we can see an HS. it is completed. from that formation, if there is a pull back (in macd) but stay bellow zero, then, forming a TC there, the move away that should happend is my favourite trade! sometime they are big move!
( I will show a picture of my view)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 130617AUDUSD 2.png Size: 198 KB
Yvon
  • #25,872
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:15am Jun 18, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Myrmica
{quote} I took version 103 where to all numbers a 0 is added. Your decimal version is also working fine.

thanks for getting back to me,

have a nice day,
Yvon
  • #25,873
  • Edited Jun 20, 2013 2:37am Jun 19, 2013 1:35pm | Edited Jun 20, 2013 2:37am
Quoting trademin
maybe just adding something else here... already in the chart above we can see an HS. it is completed. from that formation, if there is a pull back (in macd) but stay bellow zero, then, forming a TC there, the move away that should happend is my favourite trade! sometime they are big move! ( I will show a picture of my view) {image}
AUDUSD:
I am very glad when this happens, pair already 60 pips down, , straight down, beautiful.
involved in short positions from .9489

by looking closely, now the giant shape of heard and shoulders...having projection of 215pips down from the breakout-of neckline (if you draw a trend line ) so .9250 could be reached, will see...

first target insight: .9330

15:03 hrs :closed trades at .9330

I just closed trades again for some nice gains. the target was the weekly 365 ema...knocking right there!- if it breaks ...another nice ride down I guess
the last time it reached that level was 2010 !
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h1-oanda-corporation-beautifull.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h4-ava-financial-ltd-closed-trades.png Size: 78 KB
Yvon
  • #25,874
  • Jun 19, 2013 2:03pm Jun 19, 2013 2:03pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} AUDUSD: I am very glad when this happens, pair already 60 pips down, , straight down, beautiful. involved in short positions from .9489
Yahoo - ride the wild BEAR eh Yvon - Must have been some great FOMC news - still waiting to read what this all about. Go get it with your wheelbarrow

I went to bed last nite & set up a mental order to straddle the Euro - Fun to watch but until I have gained much experience with Red News Events - I enjoy seeing how someone's comments can have such a huge effect on our mixed currencies. Our NZD has come back almost 2 full cents - just today alone. Just what our exporters have been praying for.
You got any plans to play a possible pullback ?
Have a happy day my friend

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro_20Jun.png Size: 32 KB
  • #25,875
  • Jun 19, 2013 2:15pm Jun 19, 2013 2:15pm
@ TRADEMIN :

Hey Yvon, I forgot to ask if you would mind providing a clear chart showing your H&S with appropriate T/Lines. I have never used these patterns and have a bit trouble eye-balling shapes & how you calculate targets. Any help will be appreciated. I am trying to find how you have worked out a target projection of 215pipos
Cheers

Sorry Yvon - just seen your update. I will work though that.
  • #25,876
  • Jun 19, 2013 2:45pm Jun 19, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting binnie
@ TRADEMIN : Hey Yvon, I forgot to ask if you would mind providing a clear chart showing your H&S with appropriate T/Lines. I have never used these patterns and have a bit trouble eye-balling shapes & how you calculate targets. Any help will be appreciated. I am trying to find how you have worked out a target projection of 215pipos Cheers Sorry Yvon - just seen your update. I will work though that.
there it is: a picture worth a thousand words:
now from the picture do you see divergence when you compare the shoulders from the pair with the shoulders formed by the macd?---If you see that, it means that large group of traders sold the pair earlier, on the right shoulder. The macd is the expressions of it ! that is the macd language!
as you can see, the right shoulder is higher compare to the left shoulder, many expected the pair to go higher, but the macd said no!---the pair went down...

if you go and do the exercice I have done earlier with the small HS,just above at post 25871, you could see that it is the same thing that had happened!...the macd said NO! in his own language...
and I took some profit there too!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: HEAD AND SHOULDERS2.png Size: 213 KB
Yvon
  • #25,877
  • Edited Jun 20, 2013 2:04am Jun 19, 2013 2:54pm | Edited Jun 20, 2013 2:04am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Yahoo - ride the wild BEAR eh Yvon - Must have been some great FOMC news - still waiting to read what this all about. Go get it with your wheelbarrow I went to bed last nite & set up a mental order to straddle the Euro - Fun to watch but until I have gained much experience with Red News Events - I enjoy seeing how someone's comments can have such a huge effect on our mixed currencies. Our NZD has come back almost 2 full cents - just today alone. Just what our exporters have been praying for. You got any plans to play a possible...
EURUSD: my view:

first, I am in the trade too, but from the daily break of 8ema on the daily chart...just there.
pull back?!---it is a very strong move down, it would be a surprise to me that that cat would bounce very hight! It is an almost dead cat!

I am in, already a free ride, I stay there, right in front of the cat. -If it opens a eye...humm!- I don't beleive it will open the other very wide!

06:53 gmt:closed trade -was close to 89sma on the 4hrs chart, was the target-good gains
Yvon
  • #25,878
  • Jun 19, 2013 3:11pm Jun 19, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} there it is: a picture worth a thousand words: now from the picture do you see divergence when you compare the shoulders from the pair with the shoulders formed by the macd?---If you see that, it means that large group of traders sold the pair earlier, on the right shoulder. The macd is the expressions of it ! that is the macd language! as you can see, the right shoulder is higher compare to the left shoulder, many expected the pair to go higher, but the macd said no!---the pair went down... if you go and do the exercice I have done earlier...
Thanks for that. Yep, pictures are priceless to help us learners . I attach a (very rough ) drawing of my setup and immediately recognised these same points as shown on your chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hshoulders from yvon.PNG Size: 43 KB
  • #25,879
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:02pm Jun 19, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} binnie, let's have a view here, --- I am not familiar with yen, so it is based on just technical...price knows his direction, we just react on it... the daily is oversold, on a way to make a RB,- on the 4hrs chart, macd divergence , I see a inverted head and shoulder- so price on a mild up trend.- the pursue of the down trend, at that point, for me, would need the price to show a break of that mild correction, my view, sure if price breaks, it could go fast!--- But what about your taughts, do you have something on the back burner?
another view in JPY: (see post 25863)
price didn't went down, but moved up as shown by the inverted HS:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY-HS2.png Size: 182 KB
Yvon
  • #25,880
  • Jun 20, 2013 6:36am Jun 20, 2013 6:36am
Quoting trademin
{quote} EURUSD: my view: first, I am in the trade too, but from the daily break of 8ema on the daily chart...just there. pull back?!---it is a very strong move down, it would be a surprise to me that that cat would bounce very hight! It is an almost dead cat! I am in, already a free ride, I stay there, right in front of the cat. -If it opens a eye...humm!- I don't beleive it will open the other very wide! 06:53 gmt:closed trade -was close to 89sma on the 4hrs chart, was the target-good gains
Hi Yvon, very nice trade!!

Well yesterday I was waiting for the news...and thought maybe I can grab some pips there. Just before the moment the "the Big Boss" held his talk I had a phonecall for a website I'm working on.... well half an hour later (after my phonecall) the move was already there...

But... Because of the strong move I also went in and finally I closed it a moment ago with 70.8pips profit

I think I closed it to late.... no... I know!!
The best TP was arround the sma98 (as you did...and as the strategy is actually telling)
But I was thinking to the 1.32 and after that...hoping of more.... well that "hope" cost me approx. 20pips O god....I need to learn so much to control myself...sticking to the plan...they told me!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 4 KB
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