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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #1,781
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:40pm Jun 18, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting Tok
{quote} Yes, indeed. GBPNZD analysis: We can see price retraced slightly after the long term uptrend, indicating that the bulls lost their power over the trend, then regained it after another retracement back up. However, price could NOT make a new high, and has once again retraced back down. DAILY MACD IS POINTING DOWN AND GIVING SHORT SIGNALS NOW. {image} The Weekly chart shows that price is WITHIN a price trend ending consolidation zone, and this is WHERE IT HAS BEEN REVERSING. {image} Time to short.
Tok,

Great analysis! I just want to point out to you that GBP/NZD is the most volatile pair available to trade along with GBP/JPY.

GBP/NZD has an average daily range of 175 pips during 2013! I recommend you use at least a 260 pip SL and a 320 TP for this pair. 160 SL will NOT work very well with this particular pair... Trust me, I learned the hard way.
  • #1,782
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:43pm Jun 18, 2013 6:43pm
100 pips

Thanks for the update watching with interest . good luck
Making money is easy,losing money is easier
  • #1,783
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:46pm Jun 18, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Tok, Great analysis! I just want to point out to you that GBP/NZD is the most volatile pair available to trade along with GBP/JPY. GBP/NZD has an average daily range of 175 pips during 2013! I recommend you use at least a 260 pip SL and a 320 TP for this pair. 160 SL will NOT work very well with this particular pair... Trust me, I learned the hard way.
Do you still think its a good idea to take the trade, or should I just let this one slide?
  • #1,784
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:49pm Jun 18, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting Stompe
100 pips Thanks for the update watching with interest . good luck
No problem Stompe
  • #1,785
  • Jun 18, 2013 7:19pm Jun 18, 2013 7:19pm
Thanks 100pips again, what you've explained to Tok above makes alot of sense. Patience is the key.
  • #1,786
  • Jun 18, 2013 9:00pm Jun 18, 2013 9:00pm
Just to add onto my analysis of GBPNZD, it also had a double top formation.

Big signs of a reversal on this pair.
  • #1,787
  • Jun 18, 2013 9:50pm Jun 18, 2013 9:50pm
EURCAD analysis:

Weekly is currently in a price trend ending consolidation zone. It has hit the resistance and failed to get past it as of yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD.png Size: 30 KB


Daily has a potential double top formation occuring. Its too early to say, but if this double-top does form, and price starts reversing from here, we can be confident it is the beginning of a reversal for the pair.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD 1.png Size: 30 KB
  • #1,788
  • Jun 18, 2013 10:39pm Jun 18, 2013 10:39pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Yep, this is why I am currently long AUD/USD and am short EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. I'm also getting ready for AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY to ALL cross over to the upside. It will probably happen in the next 1-2 days for AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY. By the way, I really enjoy holding the above positions due to the SWAP, I don't care if it takes another 2-4 weeks before hitting take profits with above positions as that is more money in my bank due to the positive interest paid!
Just wanted to point out that the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are even closer to crossing over not even 12 hours after we talked about it earlier. Nice work
  • #1,789
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:13pm Jun 18, 2013 11:13pm
Quoting crottsinabox
{quote} Just wanted to point out that the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are even closer to crossing over not even 12 hours after we talked about it earlier. Nice work
Yep!

NZD/JPY is giving me BUY signals now with the Third Screen EA. If I was manual trading I would technically wait for the Blue bar which will be there tomorrow, unless of course we get some major drop with JPY pairs before daily close.

AUD/JPY D1 MACD will be UP tomorrow as well.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY_D1_MACD.png Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.png Size: 97 KB
  • #1,790
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:16pm Jun 18, 2013 11:16pm
I could be wrong but I'm thinking we may have some perfect entry points to go long on NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY right now! I'm really liking how the support is holding.

Everybody who is following this strategy AND trading the 2 above mentioned pairs, get ready to start building your long positions.
  • #1,791
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:30pm Jun 18, 2013 11:30pm
100pips,

I have currently started testing 3ss on Gold as well, its making lots of stops, and doesnt seem to handle this pair well. On the other hand, your 20-50ema seems to suit this pair to a T. Its true that entry may not be too precise and Gold got into the "sand trap" ranging all week, but it turns yesterday and went to over 200+pips, and I closed all without waiting till it hits TP. I set tp=320

Hope u had some experience trading this pair and could share some advice?

PS: Erebus had created a separate forum to help newbies, could u pls let me have the link, so that I can get off your bxxx for issues related to 3ss or 20-50ema ea's knowledge base
  • #1,792
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:52pm Jun 18, 2013 11:52pm
Quoting ymleong
100pips, I have currently started testing 3ss on Gold as well, its making lots of stops, and doesnt seem to handle this pair well. On the other hand, your 20-50ema seems to suit this pair to a T. Its true that entry may not be too precise and Gold got into the "sand trap" ranging all week, but it turns yesterday and went to over 200+pips, and I closed all without waiting till it hits TP. I set tp=320 Hope u had some experience trading this pair and could share some advice? PS: Erebus had created a separate forum to help newbies, could u pls let...
Firstly, Gold is a VERY volatile instrument to trade, probably the most volatile instrument out of all currency pairs, commodities, and indices! I trade Gold, Oil, and the Dow but I use a completely different strategy as well as indicators for Gold, Oil, and the DOW and I don't really want to get into that here.

I personally would stick to trading currency pairs for the time being and then slowly figure out how to go about trading gold. You definitely need to trade from at least the H4 and preferably the D1 time frame. You also need to have set rules you follow as it will knock you out of trades more than often.

Here is the link for the Third Screen Strategy - Support thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=431719 (subscribe to this thread so you don't lose it)
  • #1,793
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:06am Jun 19, 2013 12:06am
100pips,

What do you think of the EURCAD analysis?

Good potential short if it plays out?

Price has already started a downtrend on the hourly after it hit the double top resistance level.
  • #1,794
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:10am Jun 19, 2013 12:10am
Quoting Tok
100pips, What do you think of the EURCAD analysis? Good potential short if it plays out? Price has already started a downtrend on the hourly after it hit the double top resistance level.
It's really hard to say but D1 MACD is still up and I still have quite a few long positions opened in one of my live accounts so my Bias is still UP until TP or SL targets are met.

Below you will see past 30 days worth of trades as well as Current Open Positions for EUR/CAD. I still need a little more upward movement to bank some more pips!

I've banked 952 pips in the past 30 days (closed trades) with EUR/CAD and have about 1,200 pips floating profit with current open EUR/CAD long positions. You could say I'm still biased to the upside...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD_Recently_Closed_Positions.png Size: 37 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURCAD_Current_Open_Positions.png Size: 43 KB
  • #1,795
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:12am Jun 19, 2013 12:12am
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} It's really hard to say but D1 MACD is still up and I still have quite a few long positions opened in one of my live accounts so my Bias is still UP until TP or SL targets are met. Below you will see past 30 days worth of trades as well as Current Open Positions for EUR/CAD. I still need a little more upward movement to bank some more pips! I've banked 952 pips in the past 30 days (closed trades) with EUR/CAD and have about 1,200 pips floating profit with current open EUR/CAD long positions. You could say I'm still biased to the upside......
You could say we have a conflict of interest here....
  • #1,796
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:15am Jun 19, 2013 12:15am
Question 100Pips, As the euraud and gbpaud have hit some of their sls yesterday, with the PA still indicating that the price is still in a possible reversal, do you still add new positions until confirmation of a contiuation of up trend or do you wait for further confirmation of new down trend before adding more short position? I have been adding even though some stops were hit. Thanks
  • #1,797
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:16am Jun 19, 2013 12:16am
Quoting Tok
{quote} You could say we have a conflict of interest here....
Yes we do! LOL
  • #1,798
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:19am Jun 19, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Jalby
Question 100Pips, As the euraud and gbpaud have hit some of their sls yesterday, with the PA still indicating that the price is still in a possible reversal, do you still add new positions until confirmation of a contiuation of up trend or do you wait for further confirmation of new down trend before adding more short position? I have been adding even though some stops were hit. Thanks
Great question Jalby!

This really depends on the trader's risk tolerance. I personally have added a few more short positions on my live accounts but if you want to wait for more confirmation you can also do that. I still think right now we have an excellent price to start building short positions so I will keep doing that for the time being.

None of my EUR/AUD short trades on my other live accounts have hit SL due to the fact that I have a 260 pip SL set for those positions.

It's really up to you...
  • #1,799
  • Jun 19, 2013 12:31am Jun 19, 2013 12:31am
Thank you sir, I am really starting to get full understanding of how powerfull this strategy can be. Once the trades rally start moving in your direction there is alot of pips to be made just by adding or building as you call it along the way. All until yr targets get hit. Great
  • #1,800
  • Jun 19, 2013 1:07am Jun 19, 2013 1:07am
Quoting Jalby
Thank you sir, I am really starting to get full understanding of how powerfull this strategy can be. Once the trades rally start moving in your direction there is alot of pips to be made just by adding or building as you call it along the way. All until yr targets get hit. Great
You're very welcome!

Yes, this is a very simple and powerful strategy. Just follow the rules and I promise you that you will be profitable!

**Just wanted to point out what is currently going on with EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, although we got stopped out on a few trades I added a few more positions and we are now moving nicely into profit. I know the day is still young but looking at the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD daily candles I can't help but think about all of the green pips coming our way in the very near future.
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