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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #1,761
  • Edited 3:47pm Jun 18, 2013 3:15pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting crottsinabox
I saw a few of you talking in here last week about the AUD making a reversal.
So what this means? You thinking AUD is going to get stronger, no? Mother tell me if beileve you can do anything, even fly. One time in old coutry I jump off of coconut tree, and fly like bird with special equimpment. They not teach me how to land so I fall in bushes. Thats okay, I still pay company money, because not many people say they fly.
I making the big monies, so far +10 pips. Follow me if you nice guy...
  • #1,762
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:07pm Jun 18, 2013 4:07pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} The biggest problem with buying at these levels is the recent run up of about 2,000 Pips! MACD was in uptrend for over 2 and a half months. It is probably best to disable the EA for this pair at the moment. *I'm personally already starting to build my short positions. Even if you don't go short I highly recommend not going long at this point in time.

Yes I see your point with Gbp/Aud. I have disabled the EA.


The thing is from experience I know I am not so good at predicting price as you.


Same with Cad/Jpy I see you are long that pair and you could well be right that it is ready to head north, I don't know but the MACD is well red so was following the entry rules.


I am the wrong side with Eur/Jpy though, have some short positions open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,763
  • Jun 18, 2013 4:25pm Jun 18, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting normtold
{quote} Yes I see your point with Gbp/Aud. I have disabled the EA. The thing is from experience I know I am not so good at predicting price as you. Same with Cad/Jpy I see you are long that pair and you could well be right that it is ready to head north, I don't know but the MACD is well red so was following the entry rules. I am the wrong side with Eur/Jpy though, have some short positions open. {image}
One little tip that may help you with knowing when and when not to enter new positions or at least not be quite as aggressive is looking at HOW LONG the D1 MACD has been in an up trend or a down trend.

For example, let's look at AUD/JPY. I have 56 red bars which is equivalent to almost exactly 3 months of a down trend for AUD/JPY. Looking at the recent move down you can see that price dropped about 1,500 pips. Let's say we only started catching the last 1,000 pip move down and scaled in new short positions as trend moved in our favor. After we banked anywhere from 2,000 - 6,000 (just for example's sake) pips on our recent move down due to us having multiple positions it is unwise to keep opening up new positions as time goes on due to the fact that we have already made a ton of pips and it is better to wait for a reversal in trend.

Same thing can be said for the recent run up with EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD. Also, the same could be said for most of the JPY cross pairs such as NZD/JPY and CAD/JPY.

Although D1 MACD is still showing RED for most of the JPY cross pairs it is best to probably have stayed out during the past week as price started to stall especially considering the fact that we already made a ton of pips prior to that with the move down.

I hope this make sense...

**After a strong move up or down with any pair and plenty of pips in our pocket, it is best to sit out on the sidelines until a clear reversal in trend occurs and then ride the new trend in the new direction. If you have a hard time figuring it out when the reversal occurs just wait for SL targets to be met and then MOST OF THE TIME this IS the signal that trend has reversed in many cases. This is why I don't like to keep jumping in and out of trades. Once SL target is hit it more than often means a reversal in trend has occured.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY.png Size: 91 KB
  • #1,764
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:11pm Jun 18, 2013 5:11pm
USDCHF looks like its about to have a reversal. Look at the huge number of candle formations on the daily chart.

There is also a level of support formed. This is very similar to the JPY pairs.

**AND THIS IS ALL AT A LEVEL OF WEEKLY SUPPORT.

I would highly suggest putting in buys.

100pips, what do you think?
  • #1,765
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:18pm Jun 18, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting Tok
USDCHF looks like its about to have a reversal. Look at the huge number of candle formations on the daily chart. There is also a level of support formed. This is very similar to the JPY pairs. **AND THIS IS ALL AT A LEVEL OF WEEKLY SUPPORT. I would highly suggest putting in buys.
Tok,

You may be right, however, I would like for you to NOT try and learn Price Action @ Support / Resistance (PASR) or at least do not apply it to this strategy just yet.

Maybe after a few months of successful trading then you can start to apply PASR but for the time being I think you should just stick to this simple and powerful system.

Only look at D1 MACD and H1 Williams % and make sure to use correct SL and TP parameters. That's it!

I personally don't trade USD/CHF so I really can't say, I do however sometimes trade EUR/USD. However, EUR/USD is not one of my preferred pairs to trade, it's a little too messy for my liking... Don't get me wrong, I trade it sometimes and have been profitable but it's not one of my favorites.
  • #1,766
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:20pm Jun 18, 2013 5:20pm
I am very confident in the pairs that are showing this kind of Daily S/R to reverse.

Just keep your eyes open on the JPY pairs and USDCHF. And even any other pairs that may be displaying the same properties.
  • #1,767
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:22pm Jun 18, 2013 5:22pm
Quoting Tok
USDCHF looks like its about to have a reversal. Look at the huge number of candle formations on the daily chart. There is also a level of support formed. This is very similar to the JPY pairs. **AND THIS IS ALL AT A LEVEL OF WEEKLY SUPPORT. I would highly suggest putting in buys. 100pips, what do you think?
Also, Tok, do you remember me telling you to start posting charts whenever you make trade calls? I was serious when I said it...

Nobody can see the levels of Weekly support that you are talking about, or the Daily candle formations, or even the D1 MACD for that matter. I'm curious to see your charts. If you aren't able to do this simple task then I will follow through with my end of the deal and I don't think you want that.

Please please start posting charts to support your analysis and trade calls!
  • #1,768
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:25pm Jun 18, 2013 5:25pm
Jing (free software for screen shots)

Feel free to download Jing here: http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/

*It is free and very easy to use. Take the 10 minutes to download it and get to know it and then APPLY it when making trade calls or posting charts to support your analysis. It will help everybody to understand what each of us are talking about.

Thanks!
  • #1,769
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:27pm Jun 18, 2013 5:27pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Also, Tok, do you remember me telling you to start posting charts whenever you make trade calls? I was serious when I said it... Nobody can see the levels of Weekly support that you are talking about, or the Daily candle formations, or even the D1 MACD for that matter. I'm curious to see your charts. If you aren't able to do this simple task then I will follow through with my end of the deal and I don't think you want that. Please please start posting charts to support your analysis and trade calls!

Spinning tops, inverted hammers, price unable to close beneath a certain point, despite the wicks travelling far below. All the the end of a long downtrend.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forms.png Size: 40 KB





Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: con zone.png Size: 31 KB



Price is within a weekly price trend ending consolidation zone. Price has consolidated and changed direction here in the past on the weekly chart.

Combine that with the formation of candles, it is safe to assume a reversal.
  • #1,770
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:36pm Jun 18, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting Tok
{quote} {image} Price is within a weekly price trend ending consolidation zone. Price has consolidated and changed direction here in the past on the weekly chart. Combine that with the formation of candles, it is safe to assume a reversal.
Nice! Ok, last suggestion, due to the fact that we are looking for areas of Support and Resistance on the Weekly charts try and post a weekly chart to support that same level. This can be done by drawing a horizontal line on the MT4 then taking a screen shot with that line so that we can see the significance of that area in the past.

Below is an example for USD/CHF with Weekly and Daily charts.

However, until you master (and are profitable) the system explained throughout this thread I wouldn't spend time trying to learn and apply PASR quite yet, only my opinion though. The choice is ultimately yours in the end...

Edit: After posting this I noticed that you posted a Weekly chart as well. Great job! This is what I was looking for.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF_-_Weekly.png Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF_-_Daily.png Size: 122 KB
  • #1,771
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:38pm Jun 18, 2013 5:38pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Nice! Ok, last suggestion, due to the fact that we are looking for areas of Support and Resistance on the Weekly charts try and post a weekly chart to support that same level. This can be done by drawing a horizontal line on the MT4 then taking a screen shot with that line so that we can see the significance of that area in the past. Below is an example for USD/CHF with Weekly and Daily charts. However, until you master (and are profitable) the system explained throughout this thread I wouldn't spend time trying to learn and apply PASR quite...
I attached an incorrect chart. Just attached the new weekly one now.
  • #1,772
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:41pm Jun 18, 2013 5:41pm
Quoting Tok
{quote} I attached an incorrect chart. Just attached the new weekly one now.
Yes I just saw that after posting, great work Tok!

I think your trade will work out in the end, but if it doesn't, then you will know when your SL target is hit. Make sure you don't over leverage yourself and you will do just fine.

I think we may see some new direction in trends form later this week after FOMC.
  • #1,773
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:47pm Jun 18, 2013 5:47pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Yes I just saw that after posting, great work Tok! I think your trade will work out in the end, but if it doesn't, then you will know when your SL target is hit. Make sure you don't over leverage yourself and you will do just fine. I think we may see some new direction in trends form later this week after FOMC.
Yes, indeed.



GBPNZD analysis:

We can see price retraced slightly after the long term uptrend, indicating that the bulls lost their power over the trend, then regained it after another retracement back up. However, price could NOT make a new high, and has once again retraced back down.

DAILY MACD IS POINTING DOWN AND GIVING SHORT SIGNALS NOW.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD daily.png Size: 32 KB



The Weekly chart shows that price is WITHIN a price trend ending consolidation zone, and this is WHERE IT HAS BEEN REVERSING.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD weekly.png Size: 34 KB




Time to short.
  • #1,774
  • Jun 18, 2013 5:51pm Jun 18, 2013 5:51pm
HI 100 pips

I asked a question about your 5k test but you have said nothing. are you still doing it and will you be posting results or have you given up, it would be nice to know what is happening with the live test so evryone can see what exactly happens .


cheers
Making money is easy,losing money is easier
  • #1,775
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:19pm Jun 18, 2013 6:19pm
Quoting forexaccent
{quote} So what this means? You thinking AUD is going to get stronger, no? Mother tell me if beileve you can do anything, even fly. One time in old coutry I jump off of coconut tree, and fly like bird with special equimpment. They not teach me how to land so I fall in bushes. Thats okay, I still pay company money, because not many people say they fly.
Why no one answer? Old country no one play with me just throw the rocks to hurt me. They say its game, but mother said no game when you bleed. Please no more rocks. Just know if AUD get stronger like the Popeye, because I on the boat and more space for you. First throw rocks in water before coming...
I making the big monies, so far +10 pips. Follow me if you nice guy...
  • #1,776
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:26pm Jun 18, 2013 6:26pm
Quoting forexaccent
{quote} Why no one answer? Old country no one play with me just throw the rocks to hurt me. They say its game, but mother said no game when you bleed. Please no more rocks. Just know if AUD get stronger like the Popeye, because I on the boat and more space for you. First throw rocks in water before coming...
Nobody knows...

Just follow the strategy...or don't follow it, the choice is yours.
  • #1,777
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:30pm Jun 18, 2013 6:30pm
Quoting Stompe
HI 100 pips I asked a question about your 5k test but you have said nothing. are you still doing it and will you be posting results or have you given up, it would be nice to know what is happening with the live test so evryone can see what exactly happens . cheers
1st Attachment - Recently Closed Positions
2nd Attachment - Current Open Positions
3rd Attachment - Current Balance & Equity

Balance is basically flat and equity is down about 10%.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Recently_Closed_Positions.png Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Open_Positions.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Balance_&_Equity.png Size: 11 KB
  • #1,778
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:36pm Jun 18, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Nobody knows... Just follow the strategy...or don't follow it, the choice is yours.
I like you.
I making the big monies, so far +10 pips. Follow me if you nice guy...
  • #1,779
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:36pm Jun 18, 2013 6:36pm
AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPNZD about to all hit OB/OS. New chance to open positions.
  • #1,780
  • Jun 18, 2013 6:36pm Jun 18, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Tok
AUDUSD, NZDUSD and GBPNZD about to all hit OB/OS. New chance to open positions.
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