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AUD/USD

  • #59,261
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:40am Jun 13, 2013 8:40am
Quoting Max FX
i would say that technically OZ looks that it will continue pushing higher but no idea what fundamental idea can support it
I have felt that the USD has been nothing but a pump and dump ever since the rumors of easing started about two weeks ago, with talk that the Fed needs to see job growth of 200,000 jobs a month for 4 months in a row before they'd slow down bond purchasing, I find it highly unlikely it will happen.
  • #59,262
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:40am Jun 13, 2013 8:40am
Quoting Max FX
i would say that technically OZ looks that it will continue pushing higher but no idea what fundamental idea can support it
Well, the inverted Head and Shoulder is not yet completed. Still possible continuing downtrend.
Just wait and see I would short at 9785.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: continual downtrend.JPG Size: 53 KB
  • #59,263
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:50am Jun 13, 2013 8:50am
Maybe it can be idea number1)

SYDNEY, June 13 (IFR) – So much for being a pessimist; while markets had been prepared for a poor result, Australian jobs grew another 1.1k in May on top of April’s 45.0k surge. The falling AUD has already diluted the potential for a near-term interest rate cut so it’s no surprise that, with only the RBA minutes left before the next policy meeting, the futures market has slashed the probability of a 25bps July rate cut to 30% from 45% before.

Sample changes may render the May-Aug jobs data difficult to interpret but, in trend terms, the economy is still churning out jobs at a decent clip with average jobs growth of about 16-19k per month over 2013 compared to the long-term average of around 13-14k per month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate has been mostly stable at a relatively low 5.5% and is only slightly above the 2012 average of 5.2%.

Australia’s economic momentum was surprisingly poor in Q1 but this was followed by another RBA policy rate cut in May with the bank’s 200bps rate cuts to-date still supporting the interest-sensitive areas of spending with firms’ 2013-14 investment spending plans upgraded and consumer confidence bouncing back in June. The RBA also noted in this month's policy statement that lower interest rates have been reflected in portfolio shifts by savers and higher asset values with further effects to be expected over time and although the pace of borrowing has been relatively subdued, there has recently been some signs of increased demand for finance for households.

The RBA is still leaving the door open to further policy easing. However, it hasn’t indicated any urgency to do so with a subtle change in language in its last policy statement to state that the inflation outlook “may” provide some scope for further easing rather than it “would”.


Meanwhile, with Fed QE tapering concerns and China slowdown fears not going anywhere yet, the AUD could move even lower and ultimately provide some additional stimulus to the RBA’s accommodative stance.
IFR markets
  • #59,264
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:54am Jun 13, 2013 8:54am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} I guess I'm gonna wait for this lady to tell us what she wants... unpredictable like all women Not sure what I am even waiting for at this point...
start with a very small position whatever direction you think it is heading and manage it
As Above, So Below
  • #59,265
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:57am Jun 13, 2013 8:57am
I will apreciate if somebody will explain what all these data mean:

Spot short squeeze prompting cheaper topside punts while RR still high

3mth 0.9970 traded recently at 11.6, 1 August 0.9800 at 12.75

These follow earlier mentioned 1mth 0.9705 at 13.5 on 400mln

1mth 25D RR just sold 2.2 vs recent 2.4 high AUD puts


1wk 18.0 vs 18.5 (underpinned on FOMC). 1mth 14.3 vs 14.5

Thanks in advance
  • #59,266
  • Jun 13, 2013 8:58am Jun 13, 2013 8:58am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} Started a new thread.
  • #59,267
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:09am Jun 13, 2013 9:09am
Quoting Peepo
{quote} never traded binaries before, where I can start reading ? any suggestion ?
search forum for binary, there are dozens of threads on this
As Above, So Below
  • #59,268
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:30am Jun 13, 2013 9:30am
Quoting Max FX
I will apreciate if somebody will explain what all these data mean: Spot short squeeze prompting cheaper topside punts while RR still high 3mth 0.9970 traded recently at 11.6, 1 August 0.9800 at 12.75 These follow earlier mentioned 1mth 0.9705 at 13.5 on 400mln 1mth 25D RR just sold 2.2 vs recent 2.4 high AUD puts 1wk 18.0 vs 18.5 (underpinned on FOMC). 1mth 14.3 vs 14.5 Thanks in advance
Where did you get the data?
  • #59,269
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:37am Jun 13, 2013 9:37am
anyone short here? It touched upper trade line of channel. Short with TP .94 and 50 pips SL
  • #59,270
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:38am Jun 13, 2013 9:38am
Im in, will see how price goes, will grtab 20 pips probably and then set to BE
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #59,271
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:41am Jun 13, 2013 9:41am
Quoting namitak007
anyone short here? It touched upper trade line of channel. Short with TP .94 and 50 pips SL
i am long, just added another position
As Above, So Below
  • #59,272
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:43am Jun 13, 2013 9:43am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i am long, just added another position
Wishing both of us green pips!
  • #59,273
  • Jun 13, 2013 9:45am Jun 13, 2013 9:45am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Where did you get the data?
This is from IFR markets newsfeed
  • #59,274
  • Jun 13, 2013 10:56am Jun 13, 2013 10:56am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} This is from IFR markets newsfeed
How much do you pay for this service?
  • #59,275
  • Jun 13, 2013 10:58am Jun 13, 2013 10:58am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} How much do you pay for this service?
$350 monthly. But I can recomend. it's good.
  • #59,276
  • Jun 13, 2013 11:08am Jun 13, 2013 11:08am
AUD/USD bears are getting squeezed again as Oz jobs data was better than f/c. Overextended IMM net AUD shorts gave another excuse for shorts to cover after the data. However, most jobs were part-time - not a reason to get overly bullish on AUD. Rates mkts still price another RBA cut within 6 months & AUD 2 year yield advantage has actually slipped slightly. Copper & iron ore remain soft & give more reason to not get too excited about the recent bounce. Techs say the bounce has legs as daily & weekly RSI unwind o/s & the 10 DMA is threatened. A hold above the 10 DMA and 0.9625/35 zone (23.6% Fib 1.0583-0.935, 21 DMA) likely accelerates the squeeze. Key res is 0.9795/0.9845 (June 3 & mid-May highs, upper 21d Bolli). L-T names look to that level to go short as the down trend likely resumes.
IFR Markets
  • #59,277
  • Jun 13, 2013 11:15am Jun 13, 2013 11:15am
Quoting Max FX
{quote} $350 monthly. But I can recomend. it's good.
Ok thank you. I am shopping for some sort of datafeed and this seems reasonable.

When you have time could you please send me the link to exact service you have?
  • #59,278
  • Jun 13, 2013 11:24am Jun 13, 2013 11:24am
Quoting Max FX
AUD/USD bears are getting squeezed again as Oz jobs data was better than f/c. Overextended IMM net AUD shorts gave another excuse for shorts to cover after the data. However, most jobs were part-time - not a reason to get overly bullish on AUD. Rates mkts still price another RBA cut within 6 months & AUD 2 year yield advantage has actually slipped slightly. Copper & iron ore remain soft & give more reason to not get too excited about the recent bounce. Techs say the bounce has legs as daily & weekly RSI unwind o/s & the 10 DMA is threatened. A hold...

i hope you will not get confused with all these. you either analyze or just trade to make money. i prefer simply following the price. where it is there i am. opportunity of making money and profitable trade are something passes by while we keep analyzing, making plans and predicting the future.
As Above, So Below
  • #59,279
  • Jun 13, 2013 11:33am Jun 13, 2013 11:33am
Quoting tashkent
{quote} i hope you will not get confused with all these. you either analyze or just trade to make money. i prefer simply following the price. where it is there i am. opportunity of making money and profitable trade are something passes by while we keep analyzing, making plans and predicting the future.
well said
  • #59,280
  • Jun 13, 2013 11:43am Jun 13, 2013 11:43am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Ok thank you. I am shopping for some sort of datafeed and this seems reasonable. When you have time could you please send me the link to exact service you have?
http://www.ifrmarkets.com
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