AUD/USD opened on Thursday at 0.9486 and has traded a broad 0.9430-0.9525 range so far; last at 0.9455. It has been another volatile session with everything Japanese crumbling - Nikkei down 6.5% at one stage; USD/JPY fell to 94.30 whilst the JGB 10-yr yield down 8bps at 0.795%. The moves didn't stop there with the re-opening of Chinese markets (closed for three days) resulting in the Shanghai Composite falling nearly 4% at one stage as it plays catch-up and reacts to the soft China data dump from the w/e. AUD/USD held a 0.9438-99 range prior to the AUS jobs data whilst the OIS probability of a July rate cut stood at 45%. The AUD/USD had fallen sharply in the few minutes leading up to the jobs release due to a collapsing AUD/JPY. AUD/USD was trading 0.9445 prior and immediately after rocketed above 95 cents as the jobs numbers showed 1100 new jobs against a fcast of -10k. AUD/USD topped out at 0.9525 then retreated in double quick fashion as stock losses mounted around the region. AUD/USD finally found a base at 0.9430 and currently consolidates just above 0.9450. The probability of a July rate cut is down to 28% - probably where it should have been in the first place.
IFR markets
IFR markets
