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Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?

  • #101
  • Feb 18, 2013 7:10am Feb 18, 2013 7:10am
Quoting acetrader
Sugar Pink,

Looking forward to what will share next. Always willing to see what others see that I missed.
We might not always agree, but we can get along, share & swap ideas as we go.

________________________
exactly!
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #102
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:07am Feb 18, 2013 10:07am
I studied supply and demand for a while and saw a trap therein ....trying to understand what moves the market. I believe there are some who can do it. I couldn't compete in the Olympics even if I tried hard....I leave that game to guys with IQ over 130 and good emotional makeup.

ill stick to selling rallies and buying dips.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #103
  • Feb 18, 2013 10:24am Feb 18, 2013 10:24am
Quoting pemully
I studied supply and demand for a while and saw a trap therein ....trying to understand what moves the market. I believe there are some who can do it. I couldn't compete in the Olympics even if I tried hard....I leave that game to guys with IQ over 130 and good emotional makeup.

ill stick to selling rallies and buying dips.
The goal of any trader should be to sell rallies and buy dips, but the million dollar question is this - how do you manage your risk? At what point in a rally do you sell?
  • #104
  • Feb 18, 2013 12:48pm Feb 18, 2013 12:48pm
Pemully,

If it is working for you, then let it be & keeping mining the pips. Once I found what
works for me I continue using it & refining it as needed. Having said that I still like
to keep an open mind while researching & reviewing what others are sharing.

______"It Is Better To Light A Candle Than To Curse The Darkness"_________
  • #105
  • Feb 19, 2013 7:13am Feb 19, 2013 7:13am
Okay, so about Trading and exchanges. I have read it too and soon i got bored of it, it was not what i was looking for, talking about the FX trading on the telephone era.. its just not what i was looking for.

I found about these papers of how FX market works in modern times. its from 2011 and 2008, it says according to them that.
There are informed traders and not informed traders.
Dealers are the best-informed players on this market.
How do they get an edge of information compared to us, the retailers.

Imagine if you were a market maker, and you had a list of end-costumers. These people trade with you, they want to buy X and X is a bit ammount. Why would you supply liquidity to this person. Information. you know market is going up.. now only you know this , and you play this on the market.. you can start to dump your inventory on another unsuspected person and buy it and get the right side of the deal.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dealers.png Size: 107 KB


I will post more things, if you guys want i have pdf to share. this stuff is more accurate than Sam words on how dealer works. its almost mis-information
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #106
  • Edited 8:17am May 10, 2013 8:05am | Edited 8:17am
A little late to the party, but I think there is merit in the original analysis in that it illustrates that purely random movements can produce behaviour that others imply meaning too. However, in general such observations do not necessarily disprove the original premise that there is indeed merit in such chart patterns.

The reason for this can I believe be best explained with reference to the much used simpler system of a dice. If I had a loaded dice that produced sixes more often than 1/6th of the time then you would naturally expect to see runs of sixes more often than usual and you could make money by betting on that happening say 5 times in a row. However, an ideal dice would also produce such runs of 5 sixes purely by random chance. This coincidence does not invalidate the original edge with the loaded dice but it does illustrate that anyone claiming that throwing 5 sixes must be due to some system, say how you roll the dice, may not be correct.

The interesting question is how do you distinguish between the two situations and the obvious answer, like the dice example, is that you look at the statistics and see whether it is greater than would be expected for the purely random event. In this case you could argue that long-term trading of this system provides just such statistics and anything where the total gains exceed the total losses would provide such proof. Whether this is the case I can’t say, it is just an observation.

As for the question of pending orders, could it be that in these days of electronic trading the orders are not placed with the markets for others to see, but are instead only placed when the price reaches the target value? In effect these market orders are placed in the client systems waiting to be placed at the last possible moment.

I also wonder whether to some extent the current electronic market behaviour is not some distant echo of a previous paper system with the market dynamics and ideas established during those days being inherited on no greater reasons than it works because it works. Or to be more precise it works because it once worked this way long after the original reasons no longer exist.
  • #107
  • May 27, 2013 1:29pm May 27, 2013 1:29pm
My thoughts exactly, That being said random or not I have found this to be a strong rule for execution on trades that I was already planning on taking using TA. Right or wrong it is a good construct for defining risk, and whatever so called non random excuse (TA) it is you use to trade off it works well in conjunction with that to again define risk. (however more forward testing is still required)

Quoting RandomOne
A little late to the party, but I think there is merit in the original analysis in that it illustrates that purely random movements can produce behaviour that others imply meaning too. However, in general such observations do not necessarily disprove the original premise that there is indeed merit in such chart patterns. The reason for this can I believe be best explained with reference to the much used simpler system of a dice. If I had a loaded dice that produced sixes more often than 1/6th of the time then you would naturally expect to see runs...
  • #108
  • May 27, 2013 3:46pm May 27, 2013 3:46pm
Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?



Yes, no value at all. just repackaged Support & Resistance for commercial use.
  • #109
  • May 28, 2013 10:30am May 28, 2013 10:30am
Whatever you'd like to call it, it works. Look at my charts. Price has "memory." These zones are often revisited. You can get very accurate if you know how to spot them. I have been doing it on the major pairs for about 4 months and have had amazing success. Zones, supply and demand, price memory, support resistance... who cares what you call it. When it repeatedly works under normal market conditions throughout time who gives a shite.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #110
  • Jun 3, 2013 6:17am Jun 3, 2013 6:17am
[quote=SugarPinik - I will post more things, if you guys want i have pdf to share. this stuff is more accurate than Sam words on how dealer works. its almost mis-information[/QUOTE]

Hi,please you share this pdf,may clear ideas as it seems good informative,
  • #111
  • Jun 12, 2013 11:34am Jun 12, 2013 11:34am
There was demand for the pdf.
And don't forget Sam Seiden is a scam artist, doing scams and riping-off people.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Norges_Bank_Working_Paper_2011_10.pdf   844 KB | 1,259 downloads
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #112
  • Jun 12, 2013 9:59pm Jun 12, 2013 9:59pm
I've discovered the same thing using a random walk pattern just weeks ago...

but I think the exact opposite to you! I think this discovery is HUGE!

I think Sam siden is showing a FUNDAMENTAL NATURAL PHENOMENON OF NATURAL PRICE MOVEMENT (which basically is random).

Who cares if he uses the concept of supply and demand to explain it.. thats just for our thick heads to get used to it..
Point is, he is showing a natural phenomenon that existis EVERYWHERE.
You should be jumping up and down with joy having found a system that even works for RANDOM PRICE MOVEMENT.

This actually proves his patterns are correct, rather then showing he is a scam artist... let me tell you that these patterns are far more profitable then any other patterns I've ever seen including harmonics/support& resistance/Trendlines/cup and handle/head and shoulder etc etc
  • #113
  • Edited 7:06am Jun 13, 2013 3:54am | Edited 7:06am
Quoting digital_soul
I've discovered the same thing using a random walk pattern just weeks ago... but I think the exact opposite to you! I think this discovery is HUGE! I think Sam siden is showing a FUNDAMENTAL NATURAL PHENOMENON OF NATURAL PRICE MOVEMENT (which basically is random). Who cares if he uses the concept of supply and demand to explain it.. thats just for our thick heads to get used to it.. Point is, he is showing a natural phenomenon that existis EVERYWHERE. You should be jumping up and down with joy having found a system that even works for RANDOM PRICE...
yes yes its a wonderful magical thing.
this proves (?!?) that his patterns are correct LOL .. sure the patterns, some are correct others not.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #114
  • Jun 14, 2013 1:42am Jun 14, 2013 1:42am
Quoting SugarPink
{quote} yes yes its a wonderful magical thing. this proves (?!?) that his patterns are correct LOL .. sure the patterns, some are correct others not.
hmm.. let me answer your question with a question...

by what you showed how you believe that it proves that the pattern theory is INcorrect??


In my opinion, I'm profiting from the patterns.. and as far as I care that means his theory is correct. there is NO system that is 100% correct.
  • #115
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:43am Jul 24, 2013 7:43am
Quoting SugarPink
I have some points that made me realize recently that Supply&Demand areas of Sam Seiden have no more value then Techinical Analysis. It is actually just another facy name for Technical analysis, with exactly the same flaws, same subjectivity. I've created these random walks. I used a normal distribution to get the inputs for the random variables. Markets can be modeled very realisticly using a normal distribution, although in reality they follow more a power rule distribution but in this case, its enough for what I am trying to show. {image} {image}...
Even how this thread started is not very fair, i will reverse the question : is the market the result of a random process ?
Enter Signature
  • #116
  • Aug 20, 2013 6:29am Aug 20, 2013 6:29am
who put this thread into trash bin....to bad...i love supply and demand or support and resistance as they call it..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #117
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:02pm Sep 17, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting Traderlarry
Supply and demand zones even exist at sports betting exchanges such as betfair ( horse racing, football games etc.) There is nothing magical about them, it's just zones with significant imbalance of sell and buy orders. Whether it is an institution or large collective of smaller traders who enter at a popular level doesn't really matter, the effect is the same.
What he said
  • #118
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:44pm Sep 17, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting RoryP
{quote} What he said

I've just finished reading this thread. It got to me.

1) If it works, use it, don't try to disprove it. Price reacts at levels, what ever you want to call them.

2) A suggestion for the OP. Get a PROPER feed, like MNI (https://mninews.marketnews.com/product-info/mni-foreign-exchange-bullet-points). Read the information on the wires about institutional orders and the price RANGES where they're located. You would likely have these prices or price RANGES marked on your chart as S/R, S/D or whatever you want to call it. Funny that.
The price ranges are usually 10 - 20 pips, and if drawn on a chart, look very much like Seiden's S/D zones. Funny that.

Just saying ;-)
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf MNI Foreign Exchange Bullet Points - US English_1.pdf   147 KB | 1,389 downloads
  • #119
  • Sep 23, 2013 5:05am Sep 23, 2013 5:05am
You guys just proved that:

If all dogs have 4 legs,
and there are other animals that have 4 legs and look like dogs
THEN of course all those animals are dogs.

Congrats! Think about this.

Now seriously, the random charts are so great that I can hardly believe they are random. I stared at them for minutes and they look so god damn real. The only thing you can prove here is that charts can't be used for prediction (where the market is going), they might be used for getting an edge (like long term 2ticks/trade on average).
  • #120
  • Sep 26, 2013 5:50pm Sep 26, 2013 5:50pm
Quoting Lint
You guys just proved that: If all dogs have 4 legs, and there are other animals that have 4 legs and look like dogs THEN of course all those animals are dogs. Congrats! Think about this. Now seriously, the random charts are so great that I can hardly believe they are random. I stared at them for minutes and they look so god damn real. The only thing you can prove here is that charts can't be used for prediction (where the market is going), they might be used for getting an edge (like long term 2ticks/trade on average).
Well i rather go with a repeating pattern on a chart then to take Bernanke's word for it.

;-)
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