Sam Seiden Supply & Demand no more value than technical analysis?

I have some points that made me realize recently that Supply&Demand areas of Sam Seiden have no more value then Techinical Analysis. It is actually just another facy name for Technical analysis, with exactly the same flaws, same subjectivity.

I've created these random walks.
I used a normal distribution to get the inputs for the random variables.
Markets can be modeled very realisticly using a normal distribution, although in reality they follow more a power rule distribution but in this case, its enough for what I am trying to show.









As you can see there are Supply and Demand areas just like the ones that Sam uses, he proclaims that those levels are filled with buy/sell orders and thats why price bounced out of it.
You can also see spikes into those areas that he says are the best thing to use to enter a trade when they hit.
http://s3.postimage.org/k4vml58i7/s_d1.jpg (http://postimage.org/image/k4vml58i7/)

He claims that institutions sometimes even drive prices to those areas on purpose so they can fill the rest of the orders (dealing desks are paid to fill orders at specific price ranges according to him), then at those levels retial traders think its going up/down so they send orders, and those dealers use those orders to fill their own opposite orders (I really find this hard to believe on itself, but becase I don't know what is happening on dealing desk and im very ignorant on that i just took his words for it).

He says he worked on CME and could see where the big instutitions were buying and selling (paper orders).
So he got the idea to see how those areas where big instutitons were buy&selling looked like on a price chart . so he come up with these levels. I asked him if he only uses a price chart to identify the levels, in which he said yes.

Another point. Sometimes he draws levels on areas that simply are just not what he claims to be a correct structually level. I mean he only draws that level becase price bounced out of it, only after the fact.. thats why he draws it. just note on his webinars and you can see it.
Levels that are complety the opposite of what he teaches to be structually correct on another webinars, complety contracdicting himself, and like he said, he only uses a chart identify those levels.

Anything that can be seen on a random chart does not imply that is not true or false. It just shows that in random data there are all those things too.

For example, I know people talk about stop losses orders getting triggered. I can see it being triggered on the tick chart for example. at places where you would expect to have stop loss orders. I have evidences that its true even though those phenomenons also appear in random walks.
If the levels he picked up could not been seen in random data then i would have at least a motivation to belive him.

Then there is the Online trading academy. where he teaches you everything that you will need to know, it is structured as a scheme like Scientology were you progress in a prynamid style thing, on each level you get to know even more about this stuff and how market works in general.

Why would you sell anything that is already profitibale? why would you create competition and risk it not to work anymore ? why not just get rich on it?

There are things that he says that are true about supply and demand. It is true that prices move becase of unbalances in supply/demand.

Scams normaly mix truth with falsewood to create illusion that everything is just fine. I think he is just another scammer. and he fooled a lot of people, even won educator of the year award at forexstreet, what more could you want if you had an academy to teach all this tricks.

People say they have been trading with him for years and its has been profitable has a defence, well i say to those people that there are also alot of people being profitbable with normal regular flawed nonsense TA and that doesnt mean what he teaches is any better than TA.

So in the end what all you have left its his word and nothing else. You belive him or not. I find it hard to belive after seeing this.

If you guys want more graphs as example just ask. I can generate as many as I want and ALL of them have Sam Seiden Supply&Demand areas.
http://s18.postimage.org/oiyql0jqd/s_d2.jpg (http://postimage.org/image/oiyql0jqd/)
http://s18.postimage.org/3ome36pd1/s_d4.jpg (http://postimage.org/image/3ome36pd1/)
http://s18.postimage.org/dv01jag2t/s_d11.jpg (http://postimage.org/image/dv01jag2t/)
http://s18.postimage.org/e91diw06d/s_d12.jpg (http://postimage.org/image/e91diw06d/)

It´s not a hoax, it´s just another bit of clever marketing. Many traders see Support and Resistance as lines in the sand instead of zones in the sand. All Sam has done is taken that concept and called it Supply and Demand. There are hundreds of examples out there of people who take something as "Original" as a moving average cross over call it the "Bernanke Cross" package it up, and some one will buy it. This forum has many examples, although free of charge. Some one brings a concept to the forum, after a while somebody within that thread will start another thread with a similar name having changed only a period of a MA or used a different indicator and then they are hailed as a hero! Hoax? Scam? or Opportunism?

I couldn't be bothered reading the whole post, why are you complaining?



If it doesn't work for you don't use it - simple.

As your thread states, its a hoax "for you". One man's trash is another man's treasure.

I think I am free to 'complain' .
Calling this a treasure? ok.

of course you're free to whinge/complain, you must have a lot of free time on your hands.


are you trying to save us from Sam Seiden so we can folllow you?

it just feels like this is another one of those "i tried to follow a system and it didn't work for me so it must be a hoax!" threads...

No, it's not about that.
You missed the point. Nevermind man im not trying you to follow me. I am just sharing what I think. I am free to do that.

sam seidens method is not a hoax. trust me.

he is a millionnaire. are you ? he is obviously doing something right. his methods work. call it whatever you will, support , resistance, whatever.

It really works yes. As you can see on those price charts, they are working.

It is becase of the institutions orders there, that price bounces of those levels.

the thing is also, Sam Seiden doesn't say those levels always work everytime. They just work more than 50% of the time, giving an "edge".

I don't follow this method, but like any I think it is more nuanced than you are presenting.


Sam Seiden is just presenting support/resistance as supply/demand. But even there I have read articles by him where he differentiates between the two.

Anyway, his system didn't work for me but I've heard plenty of traders here who said his system transformed their trading (without signing up to the paid Traders Academy or whatever it is).

Cheers,

Ben

Those "price" charts were all randomly generated, I believe. So the bounces would appear to be some natural phenomenon instead of institution orders, "big money" or what not. Personally, I find this kind of analysis very interesting.

Well this will create quite the stir

Lol

Thanks Barbossa. I also found it very interesting when I found it. Thats why I wanted to share with people. Its more about sharing than complaining.

And thanks for admins also for moving the thread to another place and a more kind name. I understand.

Hello Sugar Pink,

I thought your post was interesting. How would you analyze the market without using Sam S. take on Supply and Demand? Very interested in your thoughts.

Thanks

B.

Thanks for the kind words.

I just read and read. I read what is happening policatly, then trying to infer conclusions. Like a normal regular investor.
I read about market structure too. I just try to know what is true and false. and when i know something to be true I try to infer conclusions. sometimes make suppositions. etc etc. Its not a mechanical thing. and I'm still new to it.

well first of all thank you for your post.
i think one of the most important aspects today in becoming (and staying) a profitable trader is to question all the things you see and other people say or teach.

in my personal opinion, trading is all about managing and optimizing risk.
nobody will be able to guarantee you on just one setup that it will be profitable the next time it occurs.
to be profitable you need to take trades where you have a good risk to reward ratio and thats exactly what sam is teaching.

you will never know if a supply or demand area will hold. but if it does, you are ususally in a great trade with a nice risk to reward ratio.
this also means that you dont need to be profitable on each position. in reality if more than 30%-40% of the setups are working you are trading profitable. but for this to be true, you need the right mindset and also a set of rules to follow.

everything that hurts your risk to reward ratio will have a bad effect on your results.
if you close your winning positions to early or if you move or remove your stop loss, you will fail.

i also guess that taking every signal will be a bad idea.
if you just trade the signals with a good rr and give yourself some time to get a feeling for the system, i think its really profitable.

to me its not that important when sam sometimes bend his own rules to illustrate a nice setup in a webinar.
in your daily trading you have to draw the zones by yourself and then its important that you draw them correctly.

cheers,
mike

Thanks. I understand too what you say :- )

I'm quite surprised that randomly generated charts exhibit patterns and "supply and demand zones ".


Anyway, there is no need to shell out thousands of dollars for Sam Seindes's stuff because it's nothing magical. I actually draw them differently than Sam does most of the time...you just have to experiment with it and get a feeling for what might be a good zone and which zone might not work.

My trading has improved a lot after discovering the concept of these zones (instead of using traditional support and resistance levels on the basis of highs and lows) but they alone are not enough to make you profitable. You need to have an understanding of price action, trends etc. otherwise you will lose a lot of money watching the market blow through these zones with full speed.

Depending on various degrees of belives. you can reach this range of conclusions.

This proves nothing, (like I said before, being presented on random generated data does not mean what he says is false or true, its just means that those things are also presented on random data and therefor are natural phenomens)
...
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It could mean that it is no more than another Technical Analysis tool like support and resistence (even though he cleary states that this is not even comparable)
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He is lying about orders being sitting there.
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He is just lying about everything, those comments of dealing desks etc etc.

Those and between.. its a range of conclusions you can reach, depending on the degree of your belives.

Bullshit. "He is just lying about everything.."


What is your great method? Uh oh... this is where this is leading isn't it? Sam Seiden is fake but my method is right!


Did you lose money to him and this is why you're acting like a scorned lover?


If you expect anyone to spoon feed you with some 100% accurate method you're bound to fail in fx.


But if you learn to pick the good aspects and tailor it to your trading style, then you'll get somewhere... All manual methods rely on the discretion of the trader based on their trading knowledge. There is no blanket system.

are you trolling or you really think that ? Like i said, its a range of conclusions. Do you read what I wrote. Its a range.
and no I dont have any method. im not selling anything. what is your problem? just leave then.