AUD/USD

the one from 9325 to 9463...i guess its minor

That depends on your risk tolerance and what you think will happen in the short-term. Allow me to explain...

Taking a look at the 4h chart, we're sitting between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib retracement level of the last significant move down. We also have the 4h 50ema playing "catch up" (which has served as pretty solid resistance) and a horizontal resistance zone at ~0.9558 which also happens to coincide nicely with the 50% fibo of the previous move down I mentioned earlier:



If I were to short, I would want a SL at ~0.9580 (above the 50% fibo, 50ema, and horizontal resistance). Now, let's think about our potential target...

Zooming out to the weekly, we can find a conservative target of ~0.9220 which served as some minor resistance way back in August 2010 (shown on chart). This means, at current levels of 0.9460, we'd be shooting for about 220 pips (deducted 20 pips for spread and to just jump out a bit early). Again, at current levels of 0.9460 and our SL at 0.9580, we're risking 120 pips. Under those parameters, you're reward/risk ratio stands at ~1.83



This is a decent reward/risk ratio, however, I'd prefer something on the 2.0 mark or better. If you're comfortable with the 1.83 reward/risk, I'd say jump on in.

Remember, we have AUD data in a little over an hour. If it disappoints, we could head sharply lower (e.g. this may be your chance to get short before that). However, I'd prefer to get short a bit higher. Getting in at 0.9480 would provide a smaller SL (100 pips) and larger target of 240 pips and leave us with a reward/risk ratio of 2.40... even getting in at 0.9470 would provide a SL of 110 pips and a target of 230 pips for a reward/risk of 2.09

My recommendation (if you're looking to get short and believe that's the current trend) would be to put a pending order in to sell between 0.9470-0.9480 with the above mentioned TP and SL. In my opinion, you'd have decent odds of getting filled on this even if the data is bad simply due to potential volatility before the release.

Your other option would be to jump in now, with a slightly poorer reward/risk ratio, and use the SL and TP I mentioned. Of course, you can always stay out completely or go long, but I haven't been looking at AUD through the "long lens" so I can't make recommendations there.

Hope that helps

(and yes, for those that know me... I'm feeling generous tonight )

thank you

long 300 pip stop 100% winner euraud audcad aswell

You're short ea?

http://i.imgur.com/KSajsnJ.png

http://i.imgur.com/HMnsxnI.png

AU ECON: Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose 4.7% in June vs -7.0% drop in prior month. Value at 102.2 vs 97.6 prior

Just the trigger we need. I've been long AU and short EA since NY close.

Yeah i've been long since london open yesterday... This 4hr close above 0.9500 would be amazing, but i don't think it's going to happen lol

Thank u this analyst was very helpful I'm going long from .9405 to 95.52
I like the u think

Good piece of data but not enough to turn the tide though.

It's really not a "big time" number in terms of significant piece of data. I wouldn't call this a trigger by any means. But gl, sir.

Geppy is a hero!! I'm with you all the way ...

The falling will come soon I think.

[SYDNEY, June 12, 2013 0310GMT] AUD/USD opened on Wednesday at 0.9425 and has traded a road 0.9422-98 range so far; last at 0.9452. It was another choppy illiquid session with the overnight NY rally petering out in the last hour of official NY trading. The early bounce from the 0.9422 low was not overly surprising given that it was once more based on interbank positioning. AUD/USD started to rally back towards the overnight high (0.9457) then got another leg up towards the figure on the back of better than expected Westpac-MI consumer confidence data. The data of course was just an excuse to target weak retail stops above 0.9485. AUD/USD baulked at the figure where fresh selling interest lay peeling back into to 0.9450. It was an unimpressive session with Asia still nervous about outflows in bond and equity markets. AXJ stocks were all down whilst local sovereign bond yields were all higher. Japanese markets steadied after the shenanigans witnessed overnight. CitiTechs went long AUD/USD overnight noting that there is support around 0.9388-0.9406 where the 2009 high, early 2010 high and 2011 low converge.
IFR markets

Looks at the moment like it might be heading up. I got 45 pips each on a third on au and ea and the other two stopped at B.E.
.9410ish looks like a level to watch.

Agreed the news wasn't big time, but he figures were good and it did trigger a move up to the .95 level were I took profit. The tech set up was there for me and the news moved it. Cheers.

Daily R1 is @ 0.94884

just opened at 0.9492, taking a big risk, planning to hold to 0.9550. correct me if i am wrong

Just broke previous high @ 0.9479. Volatility is picking up...