Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder | Page 72 | Forex Factory

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Third Screen Strategy - Dr. Alexander Elder

  • #1,421
  • Jun 11, 2013 10:03am Jun 11, 2013 10:03am
Also, the Australia Reserve Bank is trying to depreciate the currency currently, so that's another thing.
  • #1,422
  • Jun 11, 2013 10:20am Jun 11, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Tok
Also, the Australia Reserve Bank is trying to depreciate the currency currently, so that's another thing.
Everyone and their Mother is doing the same. Just watch to see how the candle closes. If you get a kangaroo tail candle close on the daily, then you need to be diligent for next day or so.
  • #1,423
  • Jun 11, 2013 10:27am Jun 11, 2013 10:27am
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} Everyone and their Mother, is doing the same. Just watch to see how the candle closes. If you get a kangaroo tail candle on the daily, then you need to be diligent for next day or so.
Will do.

the thing is, I want to trust the strategy and stay till SL is hit as 100pips said. But then again, logic would tell me to exit the trades.

what do you think?
  • #1,424
  • Edited 12:56pm Jun 11, 2013 10:45am | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting Tok
{quote} Will do. the thing is, I want to trust the strategy and stay till SL is hit as 100pips said. But then again, logic would tell me to exit the trades. what do you think?
Nobody is saying don't stick to the strategy. You need to be diligent. You can't be so mechanical in your trading that you ignore the obvious. There is more to trading then just hitting the sell/buy button when you are OS/OB. The system gives you parameters to trade within, but you need to be a little more diligent in knowing when to trade a certain pair and when it may be time to sit on the sideline until their is crystal clear direction. Just like 100pip posted on Friday. He said he was sitting on the sideline on G/A because it had reach a historical resistance level. He also mentioned a few days ago on A/U and E/A. Did this system tell him that? No, his experience and ability as a trader reading chart patterns, S&R levels, weekly historical PA recognition did. You can't just trade blindly. PA doesn't travel in a straight line. Granted PA has since cleared that historical level, but it hasn't traveled far from it, and is at 100pips discretion if he feels confident in trading that pair moving forward.

IMO, the pair is now looking like it's in a distribution phase of PA movement. Look at the hourly chart. A possible sign of PA being in a distribution phase means a drop from these levels may be in store. Who knows if it will follow through. We don't have a crystal ball. All we have to do is be diligent in recognizing potential behaviour of PA. Just something to keep an eye on.
  • #1,425
  • Jun 11, 2013 11:02am Jun 11, 2013 11:02am
Quoting MKFXTrader
{quote} Nobody is saying don't stick to the strategy. You need to be diligent. You can't be so mechanical in your trading that you ignore the obvious. There is more to trading then just hitting the sell/buy button when you are OS/OB. The system gives you parameters to trade within, but you need to be a little more diligent in knowing when to trade a certain pair and when it may be time to sit on the sideline until their is crystal clear direction. Just like 100pip posted on Friday. He said he was sitting on the sideline on G/A because it had reach...
Ok. Thank you.
  • #1,426
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:22pm Jun 11, 2013 1:22pm
1st Attachment - Recently Closed Positions
2nd Attachment - Current Open Positions
3rd Attachment - Current Balance & Equity

Current Balance is up about $200 and Equity is up a little over $900 in the past couple of days. Not bad...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Recently_Closed_Positions.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Open_Positions.png Size: 43 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Current_Balance_&_Equity.png Size: 10 KB
  • #1,427
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:25pm Jun 11, 2013 1:25pm
Technical analysis report just posted by a DailyFX quantitative strategist. Seems to agree with what I have posted above regarding possible reversal on AUD. Pippy mentioned it as well. Watch the daily candle close on AUD pairs. Take a peak at NZD pairs as well.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...heres_why.html
  • #1,428
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:27pm Jun 11, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
Technical analysis report just posted by a DailyFX quantitative strategist. Seems to agree with what I have posted above regarding possible reversal on AUD. Pippy mentioned it as well. Watch the daily candle close on all AUD pairs. Take a peak at NZD pairs as well. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...heres_why.html

Yep! The Price Action at this area of Support (PASR) is telling me that we are in for a reversal. Great observations MKFX!
  • #1,429
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:45pm Jun 11, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} Yep! The Price Action at this area of Support (PASR) is telling me that we are in for a reversal. Great observations MKFX!
not meant to sound smart ..promise.. but how do you justify calling a reversal when interest rate differentials are narrowing / long term/short term bond rates yield curve divergence are widening.. seems to me if investors leave markets to return or rebalance to higher bond yields we should see the dollar rise aud continue to drop.. as is evident from the downside triangle break on the longer term time frames...
my thought though im not ballzy enough to short aud/usd cause of the large interest rate differences...

maybe your seeing potential for a bounce and return to short dynamics as what like 70% of retail is still long this beast?
  • #1,430
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:56pm Jun 11, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting MKFXTrader
Technical analysis report just posted by a DailyFX quantitative strategist. Seems to agree with what I have posted above regarding possible reversal on AUD. Pippy mentioned it as well. Watch the daily candle close on AUD pairs. Take a peak at NZD pairs as well. http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technic...heres_why.html

I have had my eye on AUD/USD for a few days now. I am ready.
  • #1,431
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:06pm Jun 11, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting domino
{quote} not meant to sound smart ..promise.. but how do you justify calling a reversal when interest rate differentials are narrowing / long term/short term bond rates yield curve divergence are widening.. seems to me if investors leave markets to return or rebalance to higher bond yields we should see the dollar rise aud continue to drop.. as is evident from the downside triangle break on the longer term time frames... my thought though im not ballzy enough to short aud/usd cause of the large interest rate differences... maybe your seeing potential...

Price Action @ Support / Resistance (PASR)

Take a look at the Daily chart for AUD/USD. We've got a spinning top at major support from a monthly and weekly perspective. If AUD/USD moves up another 20-30 pips before today's close then we have a Hammer. This is a powerful candle at major areas of support.

You can call it a bounce if you want but I'm looking for roughly 320-450 pips up from where we are currently at and with a total of 4-8 positions I plan on banking an additional 1,000-2,000 pips. If not, then I stand to lose 320 pips with my 2 current open BUY positions.

Risk 320 : Reward 1,000+ Good enough for me...
  • #1,432
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:13pm Jun 11, 2013 2:13pm
Hi,

Where do I go to view the settings and updates for the live $5k test ?


cheers
Making money is easy,losing money is easier
  • #1,433
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:16pm Jun 11, 2013 2:16pm
interesting I do see the hammer.. you really suspect highs though with 1000+ points? I am short usd which is inline with your analysis tho but on more narrower interest rate differential pairs... lets see!
  • #1,434
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:35pm Jun 11, 2013 2:35pm
Do you guys suggest I get out of AUDUSD and other AUD/NZD pairs?

I'm positive on them all (except for AUDUSD), so leaving now would give me profit.

Or perhaps JUST get out of AUDUSD?


EDIT: Forget it. Closed all my positions out. I see the hammers/Inverted hammers all over the AUD/NZD pairs, and I'd rather end up in a slight profit than in a deficit.

Closed all AUD/NZD crosses. Let's see what happens. Hopefully we can catch a reversal.

What a week
  • #1,435
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:21pm Jun 11, 2013 4:21pm
Hi Guys, a great night on the Soccer pitch for me, hope it continues here,

I am MANUALLY trading and am only entering when the HISTOGRAM gets big enough to see...!!

I mean when it is actually showing bull or bear, at the moment there is barely any Histogram to make a call..Here is AUD/USD DAILY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: june 12 1.png Size: 222 KB


Onwards and upwards...
Onwards and upwards...
  • #1,436
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:28pm Jun 11, 2013 4:28pm
Quoting domino
interesting I do see the hammer.. you really suspect highs though with 1000+ points? I am short usd which is inline with your analysis tho but on more narrower interest rate differential pairs... lets see!
What I'm saying is if price moves up another 320-420 pips from here and I have 4-8 open BUY positions then I stand to make anywhere from 1,200-3,000 pips.

4 Positions X 320 Pip Movement = 1,200+ Pips
  • #1,437
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:31pm Jun 11, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting Tok
Do you guys suggest I get out of AUDUSD and other AUD/NZD pairs? I'm positive on them all (except for AUDUSD), so leaving now would give me profit. Or perhaps JUST get out of AUDUSD? EDIT: Forget it. Closed all my positions out. I see the hammers/Inverted hammers all over the AUD/NZD pairs, and I'd rather end up in a slight profit than in a deficit. Closed all AUD/NZD crosses. Let's see what happens. Hopefully we can catch a reversal. What a week
This is definitely not your type of strategy TOK. Like I said last week, you will never be profitable with this system no matter how simple and profitable it is because you simply can't follow the rules and parameters of this system.

Please do yourself a favor and find another strategy to trade. You are obviously a "day trader" or possibly even a scalper. You are only going to cause yourself problems if you stick with this strategy.

You lack the patience necessary to succeed...
  • #1,438
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:36pm Jun 11, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting Stompe
Hi, Where do I go to view the settings and updates for the live $5k test ? cheers

Look for posts like this one for updates: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post6745806

Here is the list of pairs traded along with settings for the $5k Live Test
  • #1,439
  • Jun 11, 2013 4:54pm Jun 11, 2013 4:54pm
100 pips
thank you for that, I have already seen those theads my mistake I thought you had a seperate thread for your live $5k test.


I see you are in the Usa but have accounts outside the Us, are they regulated do you gave any problems with withdrawals etc.



Cheers
Making money is easy,losing money is easier
  • #1,440
  • Jun 11, 2013 5:21pm Jun 11, 2013 5:21pm
Quoting 100PipsADay
{quote} This is definitely not your type of strategy TOK. Like I said last week, you will never be profitable with this system no matter how simple and profitable it is because you simply can't follow the rules and parameters of this system. Please do yourself a favor and find another strategy to trade. You are obviously a "day trader" or possibly even a scalper. You are only going to cause yourself problems if you stick with this strategy. You lack the patience necessary to succeed...
I am so confused. I thought this is what you guys were hinting at? I thought this was the correct course of action, considering everything you said, combined with what PA was showing.

Are you saying I should have stayed in and taken a likely loss ?
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