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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,721
  • Jun 7, 2013 8:50am Jun 7, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Seneca pilot
Not moving today so I took only fifteen pips. The move up yesterday has many people afraid to get short. It also has many people looking for any reason to get long. I think there is a possibility that EU goes lower today but I won't bet on my bias.
Yes. Yesterday's move was key. It was actually a pricing-in of the expected report, which most people gleamed from Wednesday's ADP. That report has been becoming more of a focus recently.

NFP is always fun though.
  • #3,722
  • Jun 7, 2013 8:58am Jun 7, 2013 8:58am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} EU moved at least twenty pips today so I would not look at it as a failed trade. .
Hi SP - I actually referred to last months ECB trade on EU (the 2nd of May) as a failed trade taken with this method and the question on the stop and reverse was also with reference to that day..

Tx.
  • #3,723
  • Jun 7, 2013 9:34am Jun 7, 2013 9:34am
Quoting sniperfxtrdr
{quote} Hi SP - I actually referred to last months ECB trade on EU (the 2nd of May) as a failed trade taken with this method and the question on the stop and reverse was also with reference to that day.. Tx.
That ECB rate move was counter to the announcement. They cut rates and the move was up. This has me looking for the failure not the breakout. The move has to be viewed in the context of the actual news. One of the reasons for the failure of the move to extend today is because of the unemployment rate surprising by increasing to 7.6% even though the NFP number was a beat.
  • #3,724
  • Jun 7, 2013 9:43am Jun 7, 2013 9:43am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} That ECB rate move was counter to the announcement. They cut rates and the move was up. This has me looking for the failure not the breakout. The move has to be viewed in the context of the actual news. One of the reasons for the failure of the move to extend today is because of the unemployment rate surprising by increasing to 7.6% even though the NFP number was a beat.
cool - tx!
  • #3,725
  • Jun 9, 2013 12:58am Jun 9, 2013 12:58am
If I may ask -- what are the other high impact news to do the high-impact trading, besides the NFP? Fed and ECB rate news?
  • #3,726
  • Jun 9, 2013 12:38pm Jun 9, 2013 12:38pm
http://www.army.mil/article/67921/


This man is a friend since 1992. I served with him in TF160 and I went through basic training and Helicopter school with his son. Any time you think trading is hard read his story. Things happened that cannot be revealed but rest assured that these stories are only part of the adventures the unit went through. Trading is nothing compared to real life so why are you so worried about a little money?

Just something to think about. There are real dangers out there and trading is not one of them. Test yourself, have discipline, look to others who have been through life's real battles. If men like Dan Laguna can overcome life threatening battles why can't you take a loss when your method requires it? Why can't you take the entry that looks so scary? Why do you constantly question your method?
  • #3,727
  • Jun 9, 2013 2:38pm Jun 9, 2013 2:38pm
I will try out to put sell limit and buy orders as follows:

Selling the Previous week high (PWH) and buying the Previous week low (PWL) for the next week.
To determine the SL and the TP, 32% Weekly ATR(5) is used.
Attached is a Excel document in order to determine the prices. The Prices can be changed, as well as the ATR, its percentage and the Risk to Reward Ratio.
Could you please tell me if this is helpful?

Thanks a lot
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Sell PWH, Buy PWL.xlsx   11 KB | 455 downloads
Demo only
  • #3,728
  • Jun 10, 2013 3:21am Jun 10, 2013 3:21am
Quoting TraderT
If I may ask -- what are the other high impact news to do the high-impact trading, besides the NFP? Fed and ECB rate news?
NFP,, FOMC which is interest rate decision and the Trade Balance Average Move ,,,the NFP is the biggest % mover
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #3,729
  • Jun 10, 2013 6:58am Jun 10, 2013 6:58am
PWH-Sell triggered. And two ORB Orders bracket: 5h00 and 8h00 candle London Time.
Just demo.
http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/382252...des-plc?bind=1
Demo only
  • #3,730
  • Jun 11, 2013 10:13pm Jun 11, 2013 10:13pm
Quoting bg_sunny
I will try out to put sell limit and buy orders as follows: Selling the Previous week high (PWH) and buying the Previous week low (PWL) for the next week. To determine the SL and the TP, 32% Weekly ATR(5) is used. Attached is a Excel document in order to determine the prices. The Prices can be changed, as well as the ATR, its percentage and the Risk to Reward Ratio. Could you please tell me if this is helpful? Thanks a lot{file}
Nice strategy, I have similar entry point but usign Monday & Tuesday High Low of the week. Do you have statistical data how ofteh these entry was good?
  • #3,731
  • Jun 12, 2013 6:43am Jun 12, 2013 6:43am
Quoting Peepo
{quote} Nice strategy, I have similar entry point but usign Monday & Tuesday High Low of the week. Do you have statistical data how ofteh these entry was good?
No I will forward-test it. Friday after London close I will write here how this week was. For now it is good. One trade is done at 1, 5 RR. Three others are open.
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  • #3,732
  • Jun 12, 2013 7:00am Jun 12, 2013 7:00am
Quoting bg_sunny
{quote} No I will forward-test it. Friday after London close I will write here how this week was. For now it is good. One trade is done at 1, 5 RR. Three others are open.
  • #3,733
  • Jun 14, 2013 2:14pm Jun 14, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting Peepo
{quote}
Ok in total placed where 12 trades PWL-Buy and PWH-Sell for six pairs, two trades per each pair.
Triggered were Seven. 5 expired as I put expiry date for London Close, which is 6 pm French time (I currentluy live in Strasbourg).
Winners (all 1.5 RR): GBPJPY PWH-Sell, GBPJPY PWL-Buy, EURGBP PWL-Buy total 3 winners, won: 3*1.5R= 4.5 R
Losers: EURUSD PWL-Buy, USD JPY PWL-Buy, EURJPY PWL-Buy,
Open trades: GBPUSD PWH-Sell with currently losing 220 pips.

4 Losers, Three winners: 4.5 R-4R = + 0.5 R

Apparently I had trouble with correlation: Three pairs: EURUSD, USDGBP and EURGBP, you cant sell all of them at the same time, which can happen when you programm the trades blindly on Sunday evening. Any ways, I catched some big moves of about 600 pips. This is a lazy thing because you just let it be after half an hour of placing sell and buy limits. To be honest I don't watch the news, the trades ar open over night and this is just a worthless demo account.
I should forward test it with 250€ account. See how I sleep the night with 1-2% risk. But how about doing the same with a 10k account.
It's like professional cooking: It works the same if you have to send out quickly for 20 or for 250 persons. Technically the action is the same. But the stress.... different.
Have a good night. I will keep on using the Excel doc I posted to programm next week. If you can help me with that correlation stuff and have any other Ideas please be so kind and post something that brings us all a bit closer to beeing good traders.
Salut
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  • #3,734
  • Jun 14, 2013 2:41pm Jun 14, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting bg_sunny
{quote} Ok in total placed where 12 trades PWL-Buy and PWH-Sell for six pairs, two trades per each pair. Triggered were Seven. 5 expired as I put expiry date for London Close, which is 6 pm French time (I currentluy live in Strasbourg). Winners (all 1.5 RR): GBPJPY PWH-Sell, GBPJPY PWL-Buy, EURGBP PWL-Buy total 3 winners, won: 3*1.5R= 4.5 R Losers: EURUSD PWL-Buy, USD JPY PWL-Buy, EURJPY PWL-Buy, Open trades: GBPUSD PWH-Sell with currently losing 220 pips. 4 Losers, Three winners: 4.5 R-4R = + 0.5 R Apparently I had trouble with correlation: Three...
Thankyou for invite me to join your proyect, but actually I am working in something else, but still I have an idea you can use: As I understand you play bounces, how do you deal when its a real break ? where is your next Resistance/Support?

I found very use to Double the range of High and Low. check the picture, maybe it gives you a better idea. Look how its bounce in Double High.Low once its breaks previous High/Low.

When I have the opportunity I use these levels too.

Maroons are Highs, and DarkBlues are Lows.



Best regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weeklydoubleLH.png Size: 45 KB
  • #3,735
  • Jun 14, 2013 4:17pm Jun 14, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting Peepo
{quote} Thankyou for invite me to join your proyect, but actually I am working in something else, but still I have an idea you can use: As I understand you play bounces, how do you deal when its a real break ? where is your next Resistance/Support? I found very use to Double the range of High and Low. check the picture, maybe it gives you a better idea. Look how its bounce in Double High.Low once its breaks previous High/Low. When I have the opportunity I use these levels too. Maroons are Highs, and DarkBlues are Lows. Best regards. {image}
I guess that for the moment I would let it be a loss if it is a real breakout. I mean that would be nice if you knew when it is really breaking out or when it is just the normal "market breathing". For now it is just guessing. And hey thanks for taking me serious, but this week was my first constructive approach to trading, so I am still at the very beginning.
Obviously a level should not hold all the time, for then we would deal with always ranging markets. But i, smaller timeframes there is a good bounce to be caught I believe. I mean SP surely does not go for 500+ pips on single trade. I did (but didn't paln it to be this way initialy).

So my question is if range and trend are valid concepts, becaus what I hate about a trend, is that it is beautiful once you have five or six higher Highs and lower lows or whatsoever, but you can say AFTER it is over, that it was a trend. Jumping on it is as uncertain as what happens tomorrow. So for me a trend is an illusion. Just putting a 200 day Moving average won't do it. I prefer hoping for the levels.

Concerning the double High/ low, it is also more for a big timeframe, which would actually be the only thing I could trade in terms of time management.

I appreaciate you help.
Would you please detail a bit what you're on to right now?
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  • #3,736
  • Jun 15, 2013 2:17am Jun 15, 2013 2:17am
You could try to use volatility to define trend/non trending market.
  • #3,737
  • Jun 15, 2013 2:18am Jun 15, 2013 2:18am
Quoting TraderT
If I may ask -- what are the other high impact news to do the high-impact trading, besides the NFP? Fed and ECB rate news?
These days the Draghi press conference is more important that the decision rate itself.
  • #3,738
  • Jun 15, 2013 3:47am Jun 15, 2013 3:47am
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Well you are actually supporting his argument. 15% is a big deal in the hedge fund space but not with 1 mill AUM. There are only a few on that list with an AUM over 1,000,000 (only 5) and the only one with 22 mill had a 17% DD and a performance of 6% (nothing close to Chris' performance). Interestingly the ones with 2 and 3 mill AUM also have some of the lowest performance rates 2-3%). Is this due to size? Not sure. You would have to give the assets to the guy returning 50% to see what would happen.
You have to realize that managing money for institutional clients is another game... they do not really care if you make 30 or 20%.. there is a lot more into consideration than the performance.
  • #3,739
  • Jun 15, 2013 4:05am Jun 15, 2013 4:05am
Quoting fxterrapin
{quote} Good question. You should know that size does matter. Even in forex. The liquidity is very deep, but when you look at how it is distributed it will look a whole lot less impressive. On E/U you have about 7 mill passing through on the Bid and Ask every second (Oanda's CEO wrote an article on this which I will post if I can find it again), which is the most liquid. Now figure in the liquidity gaps and you will probably have some trouble positioning short-term trades intra-day trades (which is most what this thread is about). As I'm sure you...
A 4 to 5 pips slippage on your strategy every single day will lead you to negative performance by end of year.
  • #3,740
  • Jun 17, 2013 10:46am Jun 17, 2013 10:46am
Quoting bg_sunny
{quote} I guess that for the moment I would let it be a loss if it is a real breakout. I mean that would be nice if you knew when it is really breaking out or when it is just the normal "market breathing". For now it is just guessing. And hey thanks for taking me serious, but this week was my first constructive approach to trading, so I am still at the very beginning. Obviously a level should not hold all the time, for then we would deal with always ranging markets. But i, smaller timeframes there is a good bounce to be caught I believe. I mean...
Hi bg_sunny, sorry for the delay, Its very true what you are saying about range and trend, but for me it is still a valid concept, itīs help to know where to sell high and buy low, for instance, in a down trend you will be looking to sell in high levels, and if the trend is changing almost every time that level is tested again and you can close your position with minimal lost.

In the example of double high/low, if you sell in a High, and is a real break out, I use to set another sell in the double High and wait to close with profits or minimal lose.

Well basically that is what am working on, and some statistical data based in HLC, fibonacci zones, please check this thread :
Fibo zones - the relation between today & yesterday OHLC
and my last journal, and xandi īs journal who is managing his trade in the same way.

Best Regars.
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