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AUD/USD

  • #58,961
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:46pm Jun 9, 2013 4:46pm
  •  ednei1
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Adjust the sails we will navigate | 61 Posts
Goodnight everyone, do not want to guess anything, but What do'm visualizing is simple, an entry in 0.9409 stop at 0.9369 (30 pips and let free until 1.0309. (Good ability to form a engolfo high, pair extremely oversold), but if this fails are just 30 pips stop so smoothly!!
  • #58,962
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:47pm Jun 9, 2013 4:47pm
Long

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  • #58,963
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:48pm Jun 9, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} My strategy is to wait until 9380 area 2011 low.If holds may enter long if not then I will wait until lower opportune time.
Always a smart idea to wait for price action to confirm.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #58,964
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:50pm Jun 9, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Ken A
Long {image}
Hey Ken, aren't you worry that we are about to break almost 3 year old range, I mean look at the monthly chart.
swing it!
  • #58,965
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:51pm Jun 9, 2013 4:51pm
I took long as market opened. Now hope for the best
  • #58,966
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:51pm Jun 9, 2013 4:51pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} so are you predicting the future or you are placing a short order for .80 target Perhaps its easier for you to play the Nostradamus. Guy with 25 posts already concluded we will see .80! Well then show us your short order please!
0.8500 is like 90% more likely than 0.8000 just taking a basic look at supply demand, so he's probably wrong

But it should retrace first... this is getting ridiculous... it would be insane if we had another bearish week...
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #58,967
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:53pm Jun 9, 2013 4:53pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Hey Ken, aren't you worry that we are about to break almost 3 year old range, I mean look at the monthly chart.
Yes, I have my concern but keep watching and might bail earlier my pain tolerance is around 0.9251. E/AUD doesn't look like going to stop where the high is and also all EUR/XXX.
  • #58,968
  • Jun 9, 2013 4:57pm Jun 9, 2013 4:57pm
... do not forget it's a holiday.
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Just ignore me. Thanks.
  • #58,969
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:00pm Jun 9, 2013 5:00pm
Yes, it's holiday in AUD and CNY. Negative China CPI might put AUD under pressure and it can't go down in straight line without some buying and selling but again so far only NZ market so keep it tight.
  • #58,970
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:01pm Jun 9, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I'm long. 9405 Anyone selling here is late to the party. Wait for a retrace.
i see a retrace, but only on audchf, euraud
audusd started the week very badly

but i'm sure aud may react by wednesday, especialy on those 2 europairs.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #58,971
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:01pm Jun 9, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} 0.8500 is like 90% more likely than 0.8000 just taking a basic look at supply demand, so he's probably wrong But it should retrace first... this is getting ridiculous... it would be insane if we had another bearish week...

Chinese data is getting increasingly negative and it seems perhaps Aussies prefer devaluation of their currency to be competitive.
"Parts of Australia are now in a technical recession, the domestic economy here is in a really bad state – domestic demand is very weak," Weston said. "They're going to have to bring rates down, they're going to have to bring the currency down as well – I think we're likely to see the start of the falls."
A stronger U.S. dollar is also playing a big role in the downtrend of the Aussie, according to Weston, who said talk of the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering its quantitative easing means investors will be bullish on the U.S. dollar in the longer term.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100794113
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,972
  • Edited 5:27pm Jun 9, 2013 5:07pm | Edited 5:27pm
Quoting Willow
{quote} i see a retrace, but only on audchf, euraud audusd started the week very badly but i'm sure aud may react by wednesday, especialy on those 2 europairs.
the week starts in 2 hours as far as candlesticks go (at least mine don't start until the new daily open, sunday = part of last week)

im also scaling in shorts euraud,gbpaud with sell limits above

lots of aud exposure with crosses and USD. lets hope im right
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #58,973
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:10pm Jun 9, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} so are you predicting the future or you are placing a short order for .80 target Perhaps its easier for you to play the Nostradamus. Guy with 25 posts already concluded we will see .80! Well then show us your short order please!
Well, you are referring to the number of my posts, then I guess I will have to have thousands of posts first to have a crystal ball as the one that you have!! which allow you to read people's mind!! I guess that the number of posts make you rude too!! I do not have time to waste with you. This will be the last post in response to you.
  • #58,974
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:12pm Jun 9, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Willow
{quote} i see a retrace, but only on audchf, euraud audusd started the week very badly but i'm sure aud may react by wednesday, especialy on those 2 europairs.
I am sure you can expand your analysis on the difference between commodity and fiscal currencies
  • #58,975
  • Edited 5:26pm Jun 9, 2013 5:15pm | Edited 5:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Chinese data is getting increasingly negative and it seems perhaps Aussies prefer devaluation of their currency to be competitive. "Parts of Australia are now in a technical recession, the domestic economy here is in a really bad state – domestic demand is very weak," Weston said. "They're going to have to bring rates down, they're going to have to bring the currency down as well – I think we're likely to see the start of the falls." A stronger U.S. dollar is also playing a big role in the downtrend of the Aussie, according to Weston,...
Thanks for that bit of info. I think the FED talking about tapering will only provide short term USD bullishness. They need to actually do something major or technical levels will be sold.



It's pretty much criminal what the USD is worth what it is worth right now after everything that has happened.
The only reason it is is because of BOJ, RBA and soon to be BOE. Also the FED talking about tapering isn't helping anything
U.S. is exporting its inflation like a mofo.


It's just that I can't sell at these levels (after this type of momentum especially, not a nice smooth downtrend) and technical says a weekly retracement is coming very soon

If not this week then next week
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #58,976
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:22pm Jun 9, 2013 5:22pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Thanks for that bit of info. I think the FED talking about tapering will only provide short term USD bullishness. They need to actually do something major or technical levels will be sold. It's pretty much criminal what the USD is worth what it is worth right now after everything that has happened. The only reason it is is because of BOJ, RBA and soon to be BOE. U.S. is exporting its inflation like a mofo. It's just that I can't sell at these levels (after this type of momentum especially, not a nice smooth downtrend) and technical says...

then what r u gonna to do? long buy on AUDUSD? am i right?
  • #58,977
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:24pm Jun 9, 2013 5:24pm
Keep in mind AUD/JPY has a very good potential to lift AUD/USD.
  • #58,978
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:24pm Jun 9, 2013 5:24pm
Quoting Ken A
Long {image}

Looks like a safe trade Ken
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #58,979
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:27pm Jun 9, 2013 5:27pm
Quoting arqish
{quote} then what r u gonna to do? long buy on AUDUSD? am i right?

I suggest you to be neutral.Wait to see if 2011 9387 low breaks or holds.This is very dangerous zone.If breaks there is not much stopping price declining rather quickly.
To me only course of action is long but at the right time.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,980
  • Jun 9, 2013 5:31pm Jun 9, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting iahmedz
I took long as market opened. Now hope for the best
This is all we can ever do.

Well, we must also manage the trade.

When the sell signals come we must not be greedy with our profit... or else George Soros will eat it all.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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