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  • #2,521
  • Jun 8, 2013 4:34pm Jun 8, 2013 4:34pm
Canadian $
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,522
  • Jun 8, 2013 5:00pm Jun 8, 2013 5:00pm
Copper
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,523
  • Jun 8, 2013 5:31pm Jun 8, 2013 5:31pm
Natural Gas
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,524
  • Jun 9, 2013 6:33am Jun 9, 2013 6:33am
Hi Olu,

Just some random thoughts about the USDX which I tend to think about perhaps a little differently. Since we live in a global Fiat currency regime where there is no true anchor, the USDX will float as a response to it's constituent currency partners' actions. This means for me that it is easier to watch EU, GU, and the Yen separately - accounting for close to 85% of the index - than the USDX by itself. The partners may or may not behave in a concerted fashion. For the past week EU and GU have been gaining strength with the Yen perhaps treading water waiting for the next round of intervention to try to push it lower. OK, the gist is that I can not make any sense of the USDX by itself, and while it forms a part of my world view, I do not trade it. It is too erratic for longer term Trend trading. And forget the Loonie while the others are to small to figure in.

Musing, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #2,525
  • Jun 9, 2013 8:10am Jun 9, 2013 8:10am
Good weekend Olu,

Maybe 3 times was the charm.

Thanks for pointing this pair out few months ago. You gave me a good chart for a heads up and I put it on the radar.

Still riding the trend down.


golfer
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  • #2,526
  • Edited Jun 10, 2013 4:53am Jun 9, 2013 1:11pm | Edited Jun 10, 2013 4:53am
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi Olu, Just some random thoughts about the USDX which I tend to think about perhaps a little differently. Since we live in a global Fiat currency regime where there is no true anchor, the USDX will float as a response to it's constituent currency partners' actions. This means for me that it is easier to watch EU, GU, and the Yen separately - accounting for close to 85% of the index - than the USDX by itself. The partners may or may not behave in a concerted fashion. For the past week EU and GU have been gaining strength with the Yen perhaps treading...
Hi AG. I agree with all you have posted above. I follow the $ index but dont trade it. I normally trade the constituents of the index. The euro alone is 50% of the index making it in effect very correlated in an opposite way. As you might have noticed I use the indices e.g dollar index and the GSCI index or the CRB index as a general overview and then pick on stable constituents to trade. So usually after I post the general analysis of the indices I post constituent currencies or commodities that are at interesting areas for trading.
Thanks AG for your post. Please feel free to continue to post your thoughts. They are great

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,527
  • Edited 1:41pm Jun 9, 2013 1:13pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting golferfx
Good weekend Olu, Maybe 3 times was the charm. Thanks for pointing this pair out few months ago. You gave me a good chart for a heads up and I put it on the radar. Still riding the trend down. golfer {image} {image}
Thanks Golfer for your comments. I was expecting more reaction from this one when price hit parity. This was not to be which meant as the song goes 'We've only just begun...' I am starting to think we may be going to 85 on this one. I think interest rates in Australia, despite all this jawboning from the US will continue to fall hence reducing the rate differential between the AUD and the CAD. A bit of retracement and I am in.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,528
  • Jun 9, 2013 11:25pm Jun 9, 2013 11:25pm
I agree with you on your view on the $ index, I am currently out of the market waiting for a signal. Cheers
  • #2,529
  • Jun 10, 2013 4:38am Jun 10, 2013 4:38am
UsdCad
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,530
  • Jun 11, 2013 2:17am Jun 11, 2013 2:17am
Corn
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,531
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:08pm Jun 11, 2013 1:08pm
Quoting Olu
UsdCad {image}

Here is the FXCM $ index. The bearish short term trend is still falling and still has room to fall. I wonder if it is still called a" short term" or is it now a "medium term"? Anyone knows the definition?
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  • #2,532
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:15pm Jun 11, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Here is the FXCM $ index. The bearish short term trend is still falling and still has room to fall. I wonder if it is still called a" short term" or is it now a "medium term"? Anyone knows the definition? {image}

Agreed Rehab. From your chart there is a shelf of supprt right where price is at. Price might bounce here. I am not holding my breadth though. It appears the euro has broken above last month's high...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,533
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:25pm Jun 11, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Agreed Rehab. From your chart there is a shelf of supprt right where price is at. Price might bounce here. I am not holding my breadth though. It appears the euro has broken above last month's high... Olu
yes, but the bear momentum is so strong that I expect this support to break, may be not immdediatly, but I eventually it will. We will see. Thanks for your comment.
  • #2,534
  • Jun 11, 2013 1:59pm Jun 11, 2013 1:59pm
Dollar is really taking it on the chin and there is no sign of a let up. it is now oversold according to stochastics but that in itself doesnt mean much as price can remain overbought/sold for long periods
Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,535
  • Jun 12, 2013 6:30am Jun 12, 2013 6:30am
Cotton - failed upward momentum
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,536
  • Jun 12, 2013 1:28pm Jun 12, 2013 1:28pm
GbpUsd
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,537
  • Jun 12, 2013 2:40pm Jun 12, 2013 2:40pm
usdcad
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,538
  • Jun 13, 2013 2:33am Jun 13, 2013 2:33am
Quoting Olu
GbpUsd {image}
so far we are seeing some weakness. Price got to 5699 and reversed...See post 2536 for original idea

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,539
  • Jun 13, 2013 4:44am Jun 13, 2013 4:44am
Quoting Olu
GbpUsd {image}
Great chart. Finding the exact place to go long $ is not easy, but this is a very good strategy.
  • #2,540
  • Jun 13, 2013 6:22am Jun 13, 2013 6:22am
Quoting falcon232
{quote} Great chart. Finding the exact place to go long $ is not easy, but this is a very good strategy.

You are right Falcon232. In fact my mentor will say wait for the price to clearly show its hand and then we join the trend as we aim to be in it for the long term. This nugget is so true but some human beings have a need for some punishment
Thanks F for adding to the thoughts on this thread

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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