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  • #2,501
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:21am Jun 5, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Spoke too soon. correction was not over {image}

Hi Olu, I still see that the correction of the $ index is not yet over and hence the Euro/USD might still be going up. In fact I am starting to doubt the bullish $ on the short term (long term is bull). ..all will be cleared with the non-farm PR coming soon.
  • #2,502
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:29pm Jun 5, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Hi Olu, I still see that the correction of the $ index is not yet over and hence the Euro/USD might still be going up. In fact I am starting to doubt the bullish $ on the short term (long term is bull). ..all will be cleared with the non-farm PR coming soon.

Not only do I agree with you my account agrees with you...I got stopped longing the $ today. So it is wise to give picking a direction a miss until after the NFP

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,503
  • Jun 5, 2013 4:00pm Jun 5, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Not only do I agree with you my account agrees with you...I got stopped longing the $ today. So it is wise to give picking a direction a miss until after the NFP Olu
Great thread, Olu. I agree with you and rehab. It would be nice to know where we're going in the short-term, but I feel very strongly about long dollar in the long-term. I'm watching the 1.3118 area (38% retrace on the big EUR/USD move down this year).
ADP has been a terrible predictor of NFP in the past, so anything close to what's predicted (at least 160K) should be great for the dollar bulls, given the weak US data this week. It's been a while since we've seen a great US number (last Monday's consumer confidence) or a miserable Euro number (the German numbers in mid May). That's all I'm waiting for- one great US number.
  • #2,504
  • Jun 5, 2013 5:27pm Jun 5, 2013 5:27pm
Quoting falcon232
{quote} Great thread, Olu. I agree with you and rehab. It would be nice to know where we're going in the short-term, but I feel very strongly about long dollar in the long-term. I'm watching the 1.3118 area (38% retrace on the big EUR/USD move down this year). ADP has been a terrible predictor of NFP in the past, so anything close to what's predicted (at least 160K) should be great for the dollar bulls, given the weak US data this week. It's been a while since we've seen a great US number (last Monday's consumer confidence) or a miserable Euro number...
Hi Falcon232
long dollar imho is the way forward and it appears it is an obvious trade and therefore the market might try to wrongfoot traders. You are right it is all about the numbers. A strong NFP might make the traders think 'tapering QE3' and hence buy the $ and sell every counterpart. We need that great number

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,505
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:29am Jun 6, 2013 11:29am
Holy Moly! The us$ is being hammered by just about every other currency!
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,506
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:33am Jun 6, 2013 11:33am
Quoting Olu
Holy Moly! The us$ is being hammered by just about every other currency!
hi OLU

yes indeed its been chipped at the last few days and gave today
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  • #2,507
  • Jun 6, 2013 12:03pm Jun 6, 2013 12:03pm
Thanks for the graphic diceman. It shows what a hammering is being dealt out to the US$. This calls for some serious 're-analysis' as some serious technical levels have been broken. Washout? or new trend?

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,508
  • Jun 6, 2013 1:17pm Jun 6, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting Olu
Thanks for the graphic diceman. It shows what a hammering is being dealt out to the US$. This calls for some serious 're-analysis' as some serious technical levels have been broken. Washout? or new trend? Olu
i wish i could answer that,unfortunately my workings are geared towards the nearest level of open interest,having said that im getting 158 and as far as 162 on longer time frame levels.but hey this fx any bloody thing can happen,excuse my french

good trading OLU

dice
  • #2,509
  • Jun 6, 2013 2:10pm Jun 6, 2013 2:10pm
How many people here trade with only your mobile phone at work?
  • #2,510
  • Jun 6, 2013 2:38pm Jun 6, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting Olu
Thanks for the graphic diceman. It shows what a hammering is being dealt out to the US$. This calls for some serious 're-analysis' as some serious technical levels have been broken. Washout? or new trend? Olu

Hi Olu, IMHO I donīt think it is a new trend, at least yet, still we need to wait for the NFP and the weekly close. Long term bul $ is still intact, it is only the short term that now is bear. Letīs see what NFP will bring us. Defenitly it is the turning point for the long term $ look. Cheers
  • #2,511
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:27pm Jun 6, 2013 3:27pm
Quoting rehab
{quote} Hi Olu, IMHO I donīt think it is a new trend, at least yet, still we need to wait for the NFP and the weekly close. Long term bul $ is still intact, it is only the short term that now is bear. Letīs see what NFP will bring us. Defenitly it is the turning point for the long term $ look. Cheers
you are right Rehab. New trend or deep retracement the NFP will tell.

By the way can you see the dfference in the thinking of traders. Diceman described recent action as 'nibbling at the dollar' and I have been writing about the markets not being able to push the $ lower. Same trading scenario different interpretation...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,512
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:30pm Jun 6, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting Smokeymar
How many people here trade with only your mobile phone at work?

Hi SmokeyMar

The answer should be 0! We trade longer term on this thread. Trades are deliberate and only taken after carefup analysis. So I really hope all the readers are not trading impulsively on their phones. Of course you can use it to check positions and make minor adjustments

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,513
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:01pm Jun 6, 2013 5:01pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} you are right Rehab. New trend or deep retracement the NFP will tell. By the way can you see the dfference in the thinking of traders. Diceman described recent action as 'nibbling at the dollar' and I have been writing about the markets not being able to push the $ lower. Same trading scenario different interpretation... Olu

Yepp, but that is how humans are, isnīt? we are subjective creatures, and there is no way of standardizing how we perceive things and there is no " control" neither to set whether or not we perceive things correctly, if you know what I mean. Just read an interesting article on that on a magazine called Philosophy now. Good night, it is a big day tomorrow. I still hold one long position EURUSD that is at BE and my short USDJPY hit its target today (that wedge thing worked well but on USDJPY not on GBPJPY).
  • #2,514
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:47pm Jun 6, 2013 5:47pm
Hi all,

IHMO we were given the heads up on this USD weakness (short/medium term at least) by the COT charts. We were at a key resistance level (84) and we had diverged positioning by the participants......a decline of some sort could not have been too far away. We could see 79 before I look to be buying this currency.

I'm currently long GBP/USD and Short USD/CHF. As for the NFP....sit back and watch the HFT algos battle it out....

I do agree that the USD will shine long term but now is not it's time.
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  • #2,515
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:54pm Jun 6, 2013 5:54pm
Thanks MPB for yet another example of the strength of the COT reports. I agree with you that ultimately $ will be king. When that 'ultimately'will be is the question.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,516
  • Jun 6, 2013 9:13pm Jun 6, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi SmokeyMar The answer should be 0! We trade longer term on this thread. Trades are deliberate and only taken after carefup analysis. So I really hope all the readers are not trading impulsively on their phones. Of course you can use it to check positions and make minor adjustments Olu
What makes you think trades can't be deliberate and only taken with careful analysis using an android/IPhone? I work 9-5, so make that one of us that trades via a smart phone. Thanks for welcoming me to the thread.
  • #2,517
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:37pm Jun 6, 2013 11:37pm
Quoting Smokeymar
{quote} What makes you think trades can't be deliberate and only taken with careful analysis using an android/IPhone? I work 9-5, so make that one of us that trades via a smart phone. Thanks for welcoming me to the thread.
Hi Smokeymar. I knew you would come back to me on about my reply. Hope you did not mis interprete what I meant. You might be right - it is possible to take well considered trades on the smartphome. My reply was as a result of an image in my head where you do your 9-6 and analyse trade setups when you get home from the 9-5 on the bigger screen. Now if that is not your situation and you do it a different way as long as you make pips well done.

By the way I have metatrader on my android phone...

Welcome again. more posts please.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,518
  • Jun 7, 2013 1:25am Jun 7, 2013 1:25am
Quoting mypipbull
Hi all, IHMO we were given the heads up on this USD weakness (short/medium term at least) by the COT charts. We were at a key resistance level (84) and we had diverged positioning by the participants......a decline of some sort could not have been too far away. We could see 79 before I look to be buying this currency. I'm currently long GBP/USD and Short USD/CHF. As for the NFP....sit back and watch the HFT algos battle it out.... I do agree that the USD will shine long term but now is not it's time. {image}
Interesting to see another way of analysis. Thanks for sharing it.
  • #2,519
  • Jun 8, 2013 6:32pm Jun 8, 2013 6:32pm
Dollar Index
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #2,520
  • Jun 8, 2013 6:34pm Jun 8, 2013 6:34pm
CRB Index
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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