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Extreme TMA System

  • #14,561
  • Jun 3, 2013 9:45am Jun 3, 2013 9:45am
AU Testing the almost double bottom resistance and trying to break higher affter the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came worse than expected, not bad as a Monday volatility.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,562
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:12am Jun 3, 2013 10:12am
Hi,

I was also watching AUD/USD today and entered a long micro-lot in order to investigate the market
Here is my volume/price action analysis:

1st hint) On the Volume indicator, we have a dashed magenta line indicating the average volume in the previous days, we can witness an increase of volume during the past few days at the weekly support -> Tells me certainly Take Profit/ Building Long position

2nd Hint) HH, HL

3nd Hint) Break of the descending Triangle + Resistance

Where I am struggling is how to use the TMA Bands with this analysis... Coz price as it the down weekly band
Daily + Weekly are negative H4 is Positive.

The most appropriate would be to target H4 upper band, then reenter at the middle H4 Band ?

--> Guys pay attention EUR/USD Breaking the Weekly Down Trendline right now !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd.jpg Size: 437 KB
  • #14,563
  • Jun 4, 2013 4:11am Jun 4, 2013 4:11am
Was paying attention to GBP/USD until now, very interesting pair !

I was still holding some long from yesterday, we had a very very bullish news this morning, I could see that price couldnt go any higher, so I decided to close those longs (would have been better to close them yesterday, Im not patient enough to hold those trades during a retracement -_-).

From what I understand, the call of TMA Centerline is stronger !! It seems to me that we will have a bearish day -> Could for short scalping... It is also a good opportunity to build long for those who believe the long-term picture is bullish !

Have a good day
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd.jpg Size: 505 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd2.jpg Size: 495 KB
  • #14,564
  • Jun 4, 2013 4:25am Jun 4, 2013 4:25am
Quoting ChanhXanh
Hi, I was also watching AUD/USD today and entered a long micro-lot in order to investigate the market Here is my volume/price action analysis: 1st hint) On the Volume indicator, we have a dashed magenta line indicating the average volume in the previous days, we can witness an increase of volume during the past few days at the weekly support -> Tells me certainly Take Profit/ Building Long position 2nd Hint) HH, HL 3nd Hint) Break of the descending Triangle + Resistance Where I am struggling is how to use the TMA Bands with this analysis... Coz...
Good analysis and the AU had made a break above his Resistance with a big Daily candle , now comes the time for the retest, the retest of the broken resistance turned support or the Long term Trendline that was broken and turn on his turn to a support line, the AU is definitely making a bold break higher after witnessing a long bearish period ( it seems that Mr. Soros Covered his shorts ), the Fundies from china are slowly improving so does gold, AU, NU ( Special case cause he broke a very important support and a very long time Ascending trendline ) and CAD or what we call Commodities currencies.

As for the ATR TMA Bands, its very simple, consider these Bands a boundaries to where PA should turn but these boundaries are not exact like everything in FX, most of the times depending on Momentum, Liquidity and volatility of different Pairs, PA over shoot these Bands some by little some by a lot Like the recent case of the UJ, because of the verbal and physical intervention from the Japanese officials PA didn't respect any kind of Analysis parameters or logic the only worries for them was to devalue the Yen as much as possible to compete in the world and Increase exports.

In that case or other no respect for the TMA Bands we use other D1 confirmation methods, the most popular are support and resistance and Trendlines which work like magic in these cases.

Remember don't ever enter a trade because PA touched the Bands always wait for Higher TF's Confirmation the most powerful ones are the Combinations of the Bands + Support or resistance and then a Break of the D1 Trendline and don't forget the retest.

Its not that hard once you got he hang of it, PA reached the bands i go looking on the D1 TF for support or resistance :

1- I find important one, i close my trade and start to find an opposite trade, with the break of lower high or higher low or a trendline or both, usually its both, an obvious candlestick patterns signal on these S&R will increase the probabilities a lot.

2- If I don't find S&R aligned with the Bands so i let my profits run until the above rules applies.

Its that simple, the Bands are the context who needs confirmation before the go ahead, and don't ever trade against the prevailing trend between the bands, if you have to scale in always do it with the trend.

Hope it helps,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,565
  • Jun 4, 2013 4:42am Jun 4, 2013 4:42am
Quoting ChanhXanh
Was paying attention to GBP/USD until now, very interesting pair ! I was still holding some long from yesterday, we had a very very bullish news this morning, I could see that price couldnt go any higher, so I decided to close those longs (would have been better to close them yesterday, Im not patient enough to hold those trades during a retracement -_-). From what I understand, the call of TMA Centerline is stronger !! It seems to me that we will have a bearish day -> Could for short scalping... It is also a good opportunity to build long for those...
This is what i mean by trading with the Prevailing trend, you freaked out and closed your longs a long time before they reached your optimal target, be it the Higher bands or even higher don't know yet cause i let my profits run, you made the opposite to the profitable wisdom, you cut your profits short and i'm sure you let your losses run in hope of recovering, you should have patience, confidence and most important Discipline to maximize your profits and cut your losses short not the opposite.

I took the opportunities of this dip to enter long @ the retest of previous resistance turned support levels Twice with a minimum Drawdown and a very tight SL if i want, this is called scaling in with the trend or pyramiding which is a more advanced trading tactics once you have confidence in your system and strategy like i do in the ETMA, take a look @ the GU Chart to see what i did with the Retracement yesterday, if you're familiar with the Elliot waves theory you will see that its very similar to the 5 waves of Elliot and to the Fibonacci Levels, you take advantage in a bull market to buy the dips and sell rallies in a bear market with a tight Stop Loss.

Best,
B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1_etma.png Size: 103 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,566
  • Jun 4, 2013 7:00am Jun 4, 2013 7:00am
Thank you ! I will not forget what you have written ,
I will continue practicing until I am more confident and work on my mindset at the sametime !
  • #14,567
  • Jun 4, 2013 2:29pm Jun 4, 2013 2:29pm
Hello, here is potential trade where am I struggling to find the best execution :

EUR/AUD:
1) Price is at the top H4/Daily/Weekly Upper TMA -> Overbought, looking for short opportunity
2) H4 Upper Trendline almost crossing down the Daily Upper Trendline -> Bearish sign
3) Hint of potential Weakness: LL + Break of H4 Yellow Trendline -> Bearish sign

However, price did not make a Lower High but is at the moment Testing the last tested resistance (Double top ???) -> This signs tells me to be on hold for the moment.

For the sake of learning and argument, let's assume that price will not make it higher and finish his bull Run with a Double Top at the Purple Resistance.

What would be the best short entry ? SL would be above Purple Resistance
Target: It seems to me that the best target should be the white Box which is also the Green Daily Trendline + Down D1 TMA -> The risk reward is quite bad at about 1 to 1 ...

a) The green Box -> Price would be more likely to reverse and hit our SL but RR 1-2
b) The pink Box -> Less likely to hit the SL but RR 1-1



Everyone is welcome to share his thoughts on this graph, assuming that price Will make a Double Top.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur aud.jpg Size: 481 KB
  • #14,568
  • Edited 7:37am Jun 5, 2013 7:26am | Edited 7:37am
Quoting ChanhXanh
Hello, here is potential trade where am I struggling to find the best execution : EUR/AUD: 1) Price is at the top H4/Daily/Weekly Upper TMA -> Overbought, looking for short opportunity 2) H4 Upper Trendline almost crossing down the Daily Upper Trendline -> Bearish sign 3) Hint of potential Weakness: LL + Break of H4 Yellow Trendline -> Bearish sign However, price did not make a Lower High but is at the moment Testing the last tested resistance (Double top ???) -> This signs tells me to be on hold for the moment. For the sake of learning and argument,...
Just like i said yesterday, look for Resistance and Support to anticipate reversal on the Bands, be it Trendline or Horizontal S&R, PA did not reach resistance yet and i don't expect it to reverse until it reach resistance and the AU GDP Miss Came to fortifies my Overall Fundatechnical Bullish global look for this pair, I'm still long gaining some more pips ( Let your profits run ) but watching closely for this pair bull run is almost over.

This pair did tested an Ascending trendline but didn't break it on the Daily, remember the daily are much more important than the H1, that why sometime we have to wait until the close of the candle, the 38's is maybe a good place for a reversal and if you look @ the Dailies u will find that this reversal will only be a retracement for this pair is in a long term bull run after breaking all trendlines and resistances.

Mainly the Move up was due to the Fundamentals, GDP Forecast miss, we have to look @ the Funda too.

Best,
B.R.
p.s. when you attach a pic, do it from inside mt4, choose save as picture and then active chart (as is).
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,569
  • Edited 11:15am Jun 5, 2013 10:22am | Edited 11:15am
Triple bottom on the AU, i guess he still angry about the GDP Miss today and joining hands with the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change missed estimate to empower the risk appetite and to weaken the Dollar on all pairs except the AU and the NU, anyway my SL Been hit, Fundamentals are unpredictable let's see if its gonna close with a broken support or its gonna recover from His low ADR, and show us some signs of life.

Useless to say that with Employment change estimate miss AU should recover against the Bucks, but like always no logic in the Markets only traders psychology like Jesse used to say.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,570
  • Jun 6, 2013 2:52am Jun 6, 2013 2:52am
What a calendar, @ exactly Noon GMT the Drama begins and so the volatility, its like its not enough that today is Friday.
Be aware and be careful.

Best,
B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Calendar.png Size: 98 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,571
  • Jun 6, 2013 3:03am Jun 6, 2013 3:03am
I would like to share with you something that i'm reading and that i think its beneficial for everybody, both in trading and life.
A course in miracles.

Be well and prosper.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,572
  • Jun 6, 2013 4:26am Jun 6, 2013 4:26am
With the new rules I haven't found yet 1 single signal.... how often do they happen to you guys?

Basically at least 1 of the slopes is always > 0.4 or <-0.4 then by the time it gets normal/ranging then the bars are far from any of the extremes...it's like there is no way price can be OUT of the bands and ranging...honestly
  • #14,573
  • Edited 9:09am Jun 6, 2013 4:39am | Edited 9:09am
Quoting thewriter30
With the new rules I haven't found yet 1 single signal.... how often do they happen to you guys? Basically at least 1 of the slopes is always > 0.4 or <-0.4 then by the time it gets normal/ranging then the bars are far from any of the extremes...it's like there is no way price can be OUT of the bands and ranging...honestly
Yes i confess that its hard to find a signal on the new ETMA System but when you find one its a highly potential trade, AL intended not to pick bottoms and tops that's why he designed this new system, to be safe and not to take much risk.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,574
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:07am Jun 6, 2013 5:07am
GU is breaking his Descending trendline like the EU Did 2 days ago.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,575
  • Jun 6, 2013 5:49am Jun 6, 2013 5:49am
we agree

Sorry, what descending trend line?
  • #14,576
  • Jun 6, 2013 9:03am Jun 6, 2013 9:03am
Quoting thewriter30
we agree Sorry, what descending trend line?
Daily Long term, this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily_raw.png Size: 66 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,577
  • Jun 6, 2013 10:03am Jun 6, 2013 10:03am
We close the week on the EU, GU extending profits, UJ, UCAD, UCHF extending losses, UJ broke important support and EU is right on Resistance lets see if it will break through or close below, signing off for the week @ the London close, have a great week everyone.

Best Regards,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,578
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:58am Jun 6, 2013 11:58am
Thank you for your commentary on my analysis !
Gonna read your link as everything related to spirituality got my interest Enjoy your Week-end Bassramy !

What a hell of a ride with GBP/USD; EUR/USD. I closed all my positions right now as we are at D1 Resistance + D1 Upper TMA Band, if only I did not close my early birds on this pair ...

- All my lots are closed as of today, no trading tomorrow for me too because of NFP.


my trading mindset is improving thanks to you Bassramy and Al !!

To be improved:

- Trade on higher timeframes
- Set and forget so I can enjoy my life
- Do not close my trade too early
- I also tend to jump too early/too late for building my positions
- Stop those M1 scalping because that is where I lost all my money and my time ...
  • #14,579
  • Edited Jun 8, 2013 3:29am Jun 7, 2013 4:41am | Edited Jun 8, 2013 3:29am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} Daily Long term, this one. {image}
Took profit on all my GU longs, GU and EU on the Upper D1 Band and Resistance, waiting for my take profit rules to come to play to take profit on my EU's and short it with the GU. My long term trend play will be to buy dips, i can see that EU Broke resistance with a strong momentum Yesterday, i will be looking for the Pullbacks or the retest to buy dips, ACHF Broke important support hard, UCHF is on the Lower D1 Band, UJ also on his D1 Lower Band, UCAD broke his congestion and heading lower, AU Printed yesterday a Bullish Piercing line and more on support this is very bullish.

P.S. Just to answer some of the skeptics about the ETMA system performance, please take a look @ this Pic attached, and those are in pips, i wanted for a long time to post similar statements but my ethics stopped me, i decided to do it today to show you the power of the ETMA system. I apologize in advance for anyone offended.

Best Regards,
B.R.
Attached Image
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #14,580
  • Jun 8, 2013 11:13am Jun 8, 2013 11:13am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} Took profit on all my GU longs, GU and EU on the Upper D1 Band and Resistance, waiting for my take profit rules to come to play to take profit on my EU's and short it with the GU. My long term trend play will be to buy dips, i can see that EU Broke resistance with a strong momentum Yesterday, i will be looking for the Pullbacks or the retest to buy dips, ACHF Broke important support hard, UCHF is on the Lower D1 Band, UJ also on his D1 Lower Band, UCAD broke his congestion and heading lower, AU Printed yesterday a Bullish Piercing line and...
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