4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 1292 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #25,821
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:29am Jun 5, 2013 7:29am
Sorry to hijack the thread again.

I was watching the USDJPY further. It gave another nice TC on the H4 and the H1 after the bounce back to the 21.
Attached Image


I missed this entry because I was at lunch and I entered the trade too late (emotions again..., still trying to control them sometimes). Again I thought I would get burned because it immediately started bouncing upwards again. And then the following happened in ONE SECOND!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013_05_06_USDJPY_2.png Size: 10 KB

Look at that candle (it is 45pips in 1 second). I really really want to know WHO is doing this. All I can assume is that someone had a LOT of lots on short and simply closed their trade or got stopped out. Well, for me it was luck and a really really good deal since it took me to my TP in one second ... Still ... I am very very afraid to be on the other side of such candles
  • #25,822
  • Edited 3:07pm Jun 5, 2013 11:25am | Edited 3:07pm
At EURUSD we have a MACD signal.... for me: Deal!

Market Rhythm:

  1. Price above sma89 (mood = uptrend)
  2. Price pulledback to ema21
  3. now pullaway
  4. and MACD

  1. if we take a trade, it would be a trend trade => buy
  2. price is also arround price-level 1.3000 => tricky?!?!

Well my SL is at last low +/- 37 pips away from entry
My TP is then 37pips

With the TP and SL I'm not sure..... was I right with those levels?!


ps. : when something is wrong in my decision....eg. did I missed something, am I completly wrong....pleas let me know!!

edit: I'm a little sceptic about the 1.3100...it's close in the neigborhood there...and it already tested it for 6 times.... maybe it's to much...who nows

edit: yep... I closed it .. @ 1 pip

Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,823
  • Jun 5, 2013 12:20pm Jun 5, 2013 12:20pm
Hey HappyMe!

That is very strange. My MACD (MACD_Colored_v106) is not giving the signal on the same candle as yours. Actually my candles and MACD signals differ quite some from your chart. Do the brokers really differ that much!? Look at my MACD and candles... (eg. I have NO tail at the large upward candle)
Attached Image


Anyway. What I still don't like about the EURUSD currently is that the MACD is railing slowly down, giving TC signals at intervals and it has not retested the 21 fully yet. It might come down there before surging up, but you are right, we know it does not always work like that. I can't predict things either . Hope your deal works out great!
  • #25,824
  • Jun 5, 2013 12:40pm Jun 5, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting smallhorse
Hey HappyMe! That is very strange. My MACD (MACD_Colored_v106) is not giving the signal on the same candle as yours. Actually my candles and MACD signals differ quite some from your chart. Do the brokers really differ that much!? Look at my MACD and candles... (eg. I have NO tail at the large upward candle) {image} Anyway. What I still don't like about the EURUSD currently is that the MACD is railing slowly down, giving TC signals at intervals and it has not retested the 21 fully yet. It might come down there before surging up, but you are right,...
I quess your broker is in a different time zone...
my broker (FinFX is operating @ GMT-time

Well I'm strungling with this trade....it's just haning arround there...

I'm also a little sceptic about the 1.3100...it's close in the neigborhood there...and it already tested it for 6 times.... maybe it's to much...who nows

edit: yep... I closed it .. @ 1 pip


You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,825
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:02pm Jun 5, 2013 3:02pm
Quoting HappyMe
At EURUSD we have a MACD signal.... for me: Deal! Market Rhythm: Price above sma89 (mood = uptrend) Price pulledback to ema21 now pullaway and MACD if we take a trade, it would be a trend trade => buy price is also arround price-level 1.3000 => tricky?!?! Well my SL is at last low +/- 37 pips away from entry My TP is then 37pips With the TP and SL I'm not sure..... was I right with those levels?! ps. : when something is wrong in my decision....eg. did I missed something, am I completly wrong....pleas let me know!! {image}
Hey HappyMe,

For that setup, I'd be quite cautious about it. There's divergence on the 4hr MACD. If you look at the 15min timeframe, theres a SHS, with quite aggressive reveresals from the 1.3100lvl. Also note, we just broke the 200sma and 365ema. It may retrace back to it.
On a further note, I've been noting the Weekly SHS. Though it may not directly effect your trade now, I have a feeling any bullish trend will be short-lived.
These are just my views, and I can of course be wrong. But, just wondering if you have considered these.
Personally, I shorted on the right shoulder in the 15min timeframe.

Luke
  • #25,826
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:10pm Jun 5, 2013 3:10pm
Quoting TheresaH
{quote} Hey HappyMe, For that setup, I'd be quite cautious about it. There's divergence on the 4hr MACD. If you look at the 15min timeframe, theres a SHS, with quite aggressive reveresals from the 1.3100lvl. Also note, we just broke the 200sma and 365ema. It may retrace back to it. On a further note, I've been noting the Weekly SHS. Though it may not directly effect your trade now, I have a feeling any bullish trend will be short-lived. These are just my views, and I can of course be wrong. But, just wondering if you have considered these. Personally,...
Thanks for you comment!!

I closed the trade some ago @ 1 pip... Yes I was little sceptic about the 1.3100...it's close in the neigborhood there...and it already tested it for 6 times.... maybe it's to much...

you wrote: " we just broke the 200sma and 365ema. It may retrace back to it"
Is this also a market Rhythm rule?!... I didn't read in Phil lessons..?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,827
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:20pm Jun 5, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Thanks for you comment!! I closed the trade some ago @ 1 pip... Yes I was little sceptic about the 1.3100...it's close in the neigborhood there...and it already tested it for 6 times.... maybe it's to much... you wrote: " we just broke the 200sma and 365ema. It may retrace back to it" Is this also a market Rhythm rule?!... I didn't read in Phil lessons..?!
No worries. I hope you didn't close the trade solely on my comment. You may be right depending on your overall strategy, in which case, I would see how my overall strategy needs tweaking.

I think generally, when we break out of a ma or TL, Phil usually says there's a retracement to the ma or TL, before we carry on a new trend. Looking back at the chart, it seems the price already retraced to the 200&365 before moving higher. But personally, I would be a bit cautious as the ma's are reasonably close. Especially with some of the downwards pressure of the weekly SHS and MACD divergence.
  • #25,828
  • Jun 5, 2013 3:24pm Jun 5, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting TheresaH
{quote} No worries. I hope you didn't close the trade solely on my comment. You may be right depending on your overall strategy, in which case, I would see how my overall strategy needs tweaking. I think generally, when we break out of a ma or TL, Phil usually says there's a retracement to the ma or TL, before we carry on a new trend. Looking back at the chart, it seems the price already retraced to the 200&365 before moving higher. But personally, I would be a bit cautious as the ma's are reasonably close. Especially with some of the downwards...
You also no worries... I closed the trade approx. 2 hours ago. It was the 1.31 what scares me, in combination with 6 test...but never a real break
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,829
  • Jun 5, 2013 5:05pm Jun 5, 2013 5:05pm
Good morning all ,
I see a mixture of topics so far today. I guess we can safely say that our charts are not all from the same data provider. I have checked mine against SmallH & Happy's and mine differ as well. I think we generally get the same price data but because of server time start & finish, we seem to have differing candle formations. Is a pity because it helps if we are all looking at exactly the same thing. Mine are Pepperstone which gets data GMT +3. Still I guess even if we do get slightly different candles, we have enough knowledge now to interpret each others signals.
The Euro is a bit scary at the moment - IMHO it sits firmly in a consolidation zone. If the spikes are taken out of the equation, there has only been approx 30 pips of real body movement. That 1.3100 is also causing indecision. Until Price has made a substantial move one way or other outside the BOX, I am happy to sit quietly on my hands. Mood of the 89 is still in the Long Direction and it is now a fair distance away.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_H4_6jun.png Size: 68 KB
  • #25,830
  • Jun 5, 2013 5:57pm Jun 5, 2013 5:57pm
Quoting TheresaH
{quote} No worries. I hope you didn't close the trade solely on my comment. You may be right depending on your overall strategy, in which case, I would see how my overall strategy needs tweaking. I think generally, when we break out of a ma or TL, Phil usually says there's a retracement to the ma or TL, before we carry on a new trend. Looking back at the chart, it seems the price already retraced to the 200&365 before moving higher. But personally, I would be a bit cautious as the ma's are reasonably close. Especially with some of the downwards...
Hi Luke,
Great to see you here. I have been trying to locate Phillip's posts on the use of the various MA's but there is so much info to go back through. I will find it eventually but from what I recall , he used the 200 & 365 generally as targets. I think that they are zones where there is likely to be a re-action rather than being levels which act as magnets to attract price . I have made it sound but I hope that it makes sense (LOL)
I stand to be corrected
  • #25,831
  • Jun 5, 2013 7:15pm Jun 5, 2013 7:15pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Luke, Great to see you here. I have been trying to locate Phillip's posts on the use of the various MA's but there is so much info to go back through. I will find it eventually but from what I recall , he used the 200 & 365 generally as targets. I think that they are zones where there is likely to be a re-action rather than being levels which act as magnets to attract price . I have made it sound but I hope that it makes sense (LOL) I stand to be corrected
Hey binnie,

I have a feeling that you are right that the 200 & 365 are more used as targets. Subsequently, I feel like they sometimes behave as support/resistance lvls, where a b/o, usually results in a pullback. Anyway, you're right that it is indeed lots of information. My interpretation is a mixture of reading the entire thread and a modest lvl of experience.
  • #25,832
  • Jun 5, 2013 8:49pm Jun 5, 2013 8:49pm
PM Watch - POUND.
Some reasonable push to break away from recent box. Mood (89) says Longs only for me so watching for a pullback to the 8ma on the H4 which MAY lead to a 21ma bounce on the H1. If Macd tells me that a TC Long is available there, I will join in. UK Red News Cash Rate etc in about 9 hrs so need to watch later if trade progresses. Not expecting a huge trade if at all . Would still have that BRN to deal with.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_6jun_setup_pm.png Size: 90 KB


PM Watch - YEN.
H4 has had its 8ma tagged and the H1 has been rejected 2 times by the 21. Not a lot of room down to the BRN Support zone but could be a few pips to grab so long as the R:R is at least 1:1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ_H1_setup_6jun.png Size: 44 KB


Just my thoughts - anyone else have something to share ?
  • #25,833
  • Edited 4:03am Jun 6, 2013 3:48am | Edited 4:03am
Quoting HappyMe
At EURUSD we have a MACD signal.... for me: Deal! Market Rhythm: Price above sma89 (mood = uptrend) Price pulledback to ema21 now pullaway and MACD if we take a trade, it would be a trend trade => buy price is also arround price-level 1.3000 => tricky?!?! Well my SL is at last low +/- 37 pips away from entry My TP is then 37pips With the TP and SL I'm not sure..... was I right with those levels?! ps. : when something is wrong in my decision....eg. did I missed something, am I completly wrong....pleas let me know!! edit: I'm a little sceptic about...
Hi I believe I need some help.....

Yesterday I thought I saw a possibility... but after an hour of my trade I felt uncomfortable with the 1.31 price-level and closed the trade. Well when we look to the price today, I was right... the set up could had deliver me 37pips. But I didn't because I felt uncomfortable with the 1.31 level and clossed the trade @ 1 pip profit....

So I need a little help I believe....
-was I really right in your opinion...or was it just luck that the price went up?! So was it a tricky trade...yes, no, maybe?!
-was it really a change? low probability or was it high probability, why!?
-what did I missed in the chart so that I could had a better feeling of the trade?
-how to deal with such a price level as the 1.31 like yesterday (the price already touched the 1.31 level for six time, in the days before) So I thought...maybe it's to much to come above the 1.31 (Thougth it was emotion wath I saw there....)

Hope someone can help me with some of my questions

Images:
Left: the price how it looks now (+/- 10:30)
Right: the price how it looks at the time I started the trade yesterday (+/-18:00)
Attached Images
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,834
  • Jun 6, 2013 6:55am Jun 6, 2013 6:55am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi I believe I need some help..... Yesterday I thought I saw a possibility... but after an hour of my trade I felt uncomfortable with the 1.31 price-level and closed the trade. Well when we look to the price today, I was right... the set up could had deliver me 37pips. But I didn't because I felt uncomfortable with the 1.31 level and clossed the trade @ 1 pip profit.... So I need a little help I believe.... -was I really right in your opinion...or was it just luck that the price went up?! So was it a tricky trade...yes, no, maybe?!...
Hi Happy,
Just got home from the Movies with the family so been a quiet night for me. Now my bedtime ( 11.40pm) but I just wanted to tell you I will reply to your concerns tomorrow morning. There are some differences between our charts but the basis for taking trades is exactly the same whatever data feed we use. I am sure we can help eliminate some of those issues that are causing the lack of confidence you seem to be struggling with. Hey - thats what families do .Stay relaxed and perhaps have an evening off the screens. Speak with you shortly mate. Have a happy day - hope the sun shine is heading your way.
Daag
  • #25,835
  • Jun 6, 2013 9:50am Jun 6, 2013 9:50am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Happy, Just got home from the Movies with the family so been a quiet night for me. Now my bedtime ( 11.40pm) but I just wanted to tell you I will reply to your concerns tomorrow morning. There are some differences between our charts but the basis for taking trades is exactly the same whatever data feed we use. I am sure we can help eliminate some of those issues that are causing the lack of confidence you seem to be struggling with. Hey - thats what families do .Stay relaxed and perhaps have an evening off the screens. Speak...
Thanks already
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,836
  • Jun 6, 2013 4:06pm Jun 6, 2013 4:06pm
Hi everyone i'm new at the forum, my name is Ezequiel and im from Argentina, i've tested the system with the forex tester and im traiding with it, i would show my analysis .

Today we have a TC on eurusd,

put a buy limit at 1.3120, tp at .3160 , 3200 and 3250 . SL 44 pips, below the up trendline in green . All three TP were activated, totally
72 pips with a lot of usd 4500 . Really good trade, i was worried because of the news of the day, Draghi is the market, but when i tested it, the macd seems to anticipate what draghi is going to say, any opinions about this ? Below are the pictures, good trading !

Macd makes a TC, also stochastic follow the movement and finally the 4hour candle close making a new high
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-forextime-ltd-eur-usd-4hours.png Size: 31 KB

Look how the price how back in order to test the trendline, good move .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-forextime-ltd.png Size: 59 KB
  • #25,837
  • Jun 6, 2013 11:18pm Jun 6, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Thanks already
Hi There Happy, I have been asking myself the same questions you have been in an effort to find an easy way of keeping things as simple as possible. If you have tried to review this whole thread from the start on page 1 , and I am guessing you have made a good effort at it ,
you will know by now that it is practically impossible to digest , understand and then apply all of Phillip's teachings. I have been working solidly on this , over & over again. Every time I re-read another of his posts , I see something new that I had not picked up on before.
He has provided us with several methods under 1 heading and I for one got completely over-whelmed by information overload. In fact, I am still trying to piece the different rules together into some sort of step by step method for myself. I am prepared for a lot more work yet
OK - ( and this is my own take on your frustration ) - you seem to have a basic H4 model to work with. You decided yesterday that the Euro showed you an entry & you were happy to get involved. My Chart is slightly different to yours but I think you will follow it ok.
The 89 tells us what the mood is currently. Price is above the 89 so we look for Longs only. How did you make a final decision to enter ? It looks to me that the Macd was the trigger and as that H4 candle closed, you had sufficient confirmation to go for it.
As happens to everyone ( experts included ), you spend the next few minutes examining why you actually did pull the trigger. OOOps!! Did I really place any weight on that bloody BRN at 1.3100 which is only 10 pips or so away from my entry. What if it gets rejected again like it has been the last few sessions ? If it turns around & heads down again my Stop is going to get pounded - gees, thats 37 pips down the drain. Bugger - what can I do now. I shouldn't have got in so quick. Golly - I didn't see that consolidation channel either . Price has to break out of that as well. Now price has stopped altogether. What have I done !! Crickey - i gotta get out of here. Look, Its got to 1 pip in the money - quick : pull the trade. Wow - +1 . Thank G for that.

PART 2 FOLLOWING>>>>
  • #25,838
  • Jun 7, 2013 12:25am Jun 7, 2013 12:25am
@ Happy Part 2....

Well - i did ok there. Getting out before it tumbled. I won't make that mistake again - must check all possibilities BEFORE I enter. Better put that in my Diary. Whats happened there? Price decided its had enough rest now - off it goes again. Darn it - its passed my profit target now. I could have made 37 pips there. Bloody idiot! Why didn't I trust myself. I know this method works and Phillip has spent 1000's of hours testing it and it works for him. What could I have done differently ? Oh well - I will know for next time. Consolidation and / or BRN's don't make any real difference to a trade's outcome...

Happy - you have had most forms of human emotion in this single experience. Excitement, anticipation, self-doubt, remorse, anger,happiness, pride and finally a sense of feeling flat & let down.
What did you do wrong ? --- NOTHING. On the positive side, you preserved some capital ( in fact made a couple of bucks). You used acceptable targets although stops could perhaps be set under the lower line of Support or Resistance , this case being the bottom of the channel and the 21 ma. You set a profit target which was equal to your risk even though it could have been set higher to that upper short term T/Line. Of course, the trade was a Long which was in the right direction indicated by the 89ma. Price was a bullish candle moving away from the 21.( but did not tag the 21 which I like to see happen). Your trigger was the completion of a TC signal on the Macd.
The only issue I would ask you to do historical back-testing on would be the question of " price action / reaction at Big Round Numbers.

You have asked if I would have acted differently with this one and I must admit Yes - I would not (& did not) hesitate on passing this one by. The odds were already in favour of continuation long - trend/consolidation/continuation supported by Macd. However, I much prefer
to see a solid Break out of these big S & R levels and wait for the re-test to make sure the market wants to go further. You may prefer to overlook BRN's, Channels etc. Thats your call and if your testing shows you can be successful without referring to these, then that is your method and you must have 100% confidence in it. THAT IS YOUR EDGE OVER THE MARKET
See , there is no right or wrong way to trade. You simply must have a plan to trade with. This plan should include a couple of what-if scenarios. That way, you are enabled to make that split second decision if it is needed. Screen time & a high success rate over a large number of sim trades will help in your confidence building.

Thats the way I see it mate - feel free to PM me if you want to talk through this further. While its great to talk about our issues and confront them together, I ain't sure we should fill up Phillip's thread too much - unless he or perhaps Trademin care to add a comment or two for us all. Keep up the practice my friend and post some charts.
I am posting what my chart looked like for the same period.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Happy's_Question_7jun.png Size: 83 KB



  • #25,839
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:28am Jun 7, 2013 2:28am
Quoting binnie
@ Happy Part 2.... Well - i did ok there. Getting out before it tumbled. I won't make that mistake again - must check all possibilities BEFORE I enter. Better put that in my Diary. Whats happened there? Price decided its had enough rest now - off it goes again. Darn it - its passed my profit target now. I could have made 37 pips there. Bloody idiot! Why didn't I trust myself. I know this method works and Phillip has spent 1000's of hours testing it and it works for him. What could I have done differently ? Oh well - I will know...


Dear Binnie,

Thanks for your comment!!
I was reading and...well....damn... I recognise my thinking at the time I started, during and after that trade.....are you a psychologist?!

Well you've got the point I think...
-system is clear and oke.
-try too backtesting at price-levels: how is price reacting there, and what is the trading result is such situation (creating confidence)
-how to deal with Price-levels and channels (make it more clear)
-look again to your Sl/TP strategy (were to put the SL!!)

The stuppid thing is that I backtested a lot till now. With backtesting I mean serious backtesting without knowing the nextbar... and counting SL/TP, counting profit and losts. And everytime I come to the conclusion that the system works. Well and in real trading I'm strungling and i I'm asking myself question that I'm not asking with backtesting Well tha't real money I quess.

Well to overcome this: create confidence in the system and just make (backtesting) flighthours.

Really thanks for your comment... I think you helpped me a lot!! I have work to do!!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,840
  • Jun 7, 2013 3:22am Jun 7, 2013 3:22am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Dear Binnie, Thanks for your comment!! I was reading and...well....damn... I recognise my thinking at the time I started, during and after that trade.....are you a psychologist?! Well you've got the point I think... -system is clear and oke. -try too backtesting at price-levels: how is price reacting there, and what is the trading result is such situation (creating confidence) -how to deal with Price-levels and channels (make it more clear) -look again to your Sl/TP strategy (were to put the SL!!) The stuppid thing...
Glad I may have been some help. No - I ain't a Psychologist but my kids call me Psyco sometimes
This is purely from the same experiences we have just talked about. I KNOW what you are feeling - you ain't alone.
My Aussie watch for the next candle close:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_H1_setup_7jun.png Size: 32 KB
10 traders viewing now