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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #25,781
  • Edited 11:28am Jun 3, 2013 7:14am | Edited 11:28am
At EURUSD we have a MACD signal.... for me: No Deal!

Market Rhythm:

  1. Price crossed sma89, pullaway (and broke sma200)
  2. Afterwards price pullback to ema21 (and broke sma200 again)
  3. this morning price was pullingaway...
  4. and now price pulled back to ema21 and we have a MACD Signal
  5. Market is in Rhythm
  6. price is above sma89 (mood = uptrend)

  1. if we take a trade, it would be a countertrend (because of MACD-signal) => sell

Price is now between ema8 and ema21 and near sma200=> so there is no good opportunity in my view....

  1. price is near sma200 => price needs to decide which direction to take
  2. price is also arround price-level 1.3000 (psychological level)
  3. price already halfway and between 8ema and 21ema
  4. R:R is not good! (SL: last high, TP: max. ema21)

I'm going to wait for the Rhythm (a new pullaway signal)...

ps. : when something is wrong in my decision....eg. did I missed something, am I completly wrong....pleas let me know!!

Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,782
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:24am Jun 3, 2013 11:24am
At EURUSD we have a MACD signal.... For me: No Deal!

Market Rhythm:

  1. Market is in Rhythm
  2. Price went back to ema21, now pulling away => very strong move
  3. We have a MACD signal (Buy)
  4. price is above sma89 (mood = uptrend)
  5. Last up candle is 97 pips....to much away from ema8 => better to wait for a new pullback, I think....

  1. if we take a trade, it would be a trendtrade (because of MACD-signal) => Buy

I'm going to wait for the Rhythm (a new pullback signal) .... following the MarketRhythm

ps. : when something is wrong in my decision....eg. did I missed something, am I completly wrong, or could I do it better....pleas let me know!!

Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,783
  • Edited 4:43pm Jun 3, 2013 2:30pm | Edited 4:43pm
Quoting HappyMe
At EURUSD we have a MACD signal.... For me: No Deal! Market Rhythm: Market is in Rhythm Price went back to ema21, now pulling away => very strong move We have a MACD signal (Buy) price is above sma89 (mood = uptrend) Last up candle is 97 pips....to much away from ema8 => better to wait for a new pullback, I think.... if we take a trade, it would be a trendtrade (because of MACD-signal) => BuyI'm going to wait for the Rhythm (a new pullback signal) .... following the MarketRhythm ps. : when something is wrong in my decision....eg. did I missed something,...
Hi HappyMe,

that was not an easy one! the daily chart shows a down trend where price could stop there...and on the 4hrs, still making a TC...I didn't get involved in EURUSD, JUST WAITING FOR SOMETHING else-
maybe by going to the 1hr chart and look at rhythm, see if any TC there or a confirmation of a direction:
so there it was :
maybe, be adding detail on the 1hr chart: there is a trend line pointing down (with arrow); it is also a a pull back, then, the break out!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-h4-ava-financial-ltd-just-knocking-on-trend-line.png Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: MOVE AWAY.png Size: 240 KB
Yvon
  • #25,784
  • Jun 3, 2013 4:09pm Jun 3, 2013 4:09pm
I went for AUDUSD, the chart looked clean. There was a consolidation; the next target would be about the same range…


now waiting for a pull back
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h4-ava-financial-ltd-waiting-for-pull-back.png Size: 49 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd-h1-ava-financial-ltd-the-move-away.png Size: 78 KB
Yvon
  • #25,785
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:14pm Jun 3, 2013 5:14pm
waiting for GBPUSD and AUDUSD to make pullbacks then ill be looking for a TC. hows the GBPUSD looking for you guys? seems like it good make a decent run if its TC is confirmed.
  • #25,786
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:18pm Jun 3, 2013 5:18pm
Good Morning all -
Hi there Yvon. Thanks for the charts.
There was a few large candles during the sessions and some good looking setups too. Pity they would have needed huge Stops so that made them pretty much unplayable to me anyway.
Just while we wait for some action back to our 21's where it would be neat to get another crack at playing , I have been reading a bit about the Round Top Signals using the Macd. This one setting up on the Euro now looks to be a Double RT & is supported by a possible Divergence. I know we don't guess what will happen but it is a possibility that I will be aware of if it happens. Is this a reasonable setup according to the rules and if so, is there a way to use shorter T/Frames to get a better entry ?
Thanks .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_set_up_1_4Jun.png Size: 39 KB
  • #25,787
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:23pm Jun 3, 2013 5:23pm
USDCHF looks like its bottomed out as well. looking to enter a long once MACD confirms a reversal. might just wait it out and see how it reacts to that .95607ish level.
  • #25,788
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:28pm Jun 3, 2013 5:28pm
Hi MMB -

Attached Image


  • #25,789
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:30pm Jun 3, 2013 5:30pm
yes hah thats what im hoping for. hope it moves along smoothly.
  • #25,790
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:33pm Jun 3, 2013 5:33pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} Hi HappyMe, that was not an easy one! the daily chart shows a down trend where price could stop there...and on the 4hrs, still making a TC...I didn't get involved in EURUSD, JUST WAITING FOR SOMETHING else- maybe by going to the 1hr chart and look at rhythm, see if any TC there or a confirmation of a direction: so there it was : maybe, be adding detail on the 1hr chart: there is a trend line pointing down (with arrow); it is also a a pull back, then, the break out! {image} {image}

Hi trademin,
You are correct!! I saw the resistance in the 1Hour chart and wanted to start the trade. But as you know I'm struggle a little with my patient... and that's not good for my trading results!! So in the past I took trades...much before and much after the signals... and ofcourse sometimes at the wrong times. So I try not to trade at another timeframe then the 4Hours. Maybe less profit but defenitly more consistant for me...for now.

First I need to master the 4Hour chart and after that....we go to the expert mode

But I love to get this feedback! ...This time I saw it correctly!! well not bad

Good trading everyone.... I'm need my sleep...
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,791
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:59pm Jun 3, 2013 5:59pm
Have a nice evening guys,
Yvon
  • #25,792
  • Jun 3, 2013 10:38pm Jun 3, 2013 10:38pm
changed my mind about the GBPUSD. think it may be going down for a little bit due to that trendline being there. the tails on those candles lead me to believe its not going through, though im not completely sure. sitting out either way. what your guys opinions?
  • #25,793
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:03pm Jun 3, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting mmb91
changed my mind about the GBPUSD. think it may be going down for a little bit due to that trendline being there. the tails on those candles lead me to believe its not going through, though im not completely sure. sitting out either way. what your guys opinions?

when possible, I play for a safer position it is always better. the first reaction from a consolidation's break out is an example.I love those, or head and shoulder under construction.

I have one example ( about consolidation)...where the reaction is on his way, but the "move away" still not done. there's maybe more, I didn't check.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: POSSIBLE MOVES 2.png Size: 208 KB
Yvon
  • #25,794
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:33pm Jun 3, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting mmb91
changed my mind about the GBPUSD. think it may be going down for a little bit due to that trendline being there. the tails on those candles lead me to believe its not going through, though im not completely sure. sitting out either way. what your guys opinions?
Hi mmb - are you able to post a chart for us . It helps us to see what you are looking at and then we can all learn from each others views.
My personal feel is for a pull back to the 21 & then a continuation of recent uptrend. The H4 RT which is still forming can indeed become a TC on the H1 if Price can get back to that 21.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_H4_Set_up_2_4_June.png Size: 71 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_H1_setup_TC.png Size: 51 KB
  • #25,795
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:54pm Jun 3, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} when possible, I play for a safer position it is always better. the first reaction from a consolidation's break out is an example.I love those, or head and shoulder under construction. I have one example ( about consolidation)...where the reaction is on his way, but the "move away" still not done. there's maybe more, I didn't check. {image}
Yvon - the H1 for this pair has now seen the macd cross under Zero Line. Even though the H4 continues to show a RT possible move back to the 21. Can this still qualify as a valid signal to go long if the MACD turns back up through the zero again? or is the H4 now the only chart we can look to for a TC ( assuming price does get back down to its 21 that is )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_H1_for_Yvon_4jun.png Size: 37 KB
  • #25,796
  • Edited 6:59am Jun 4, 2013 5:51am | Edited 6:59am
I believe the pullaway at the EURUSD is not tradeble only at the 4Hour chart (for my learning curve I only want to trade @ the 4Hour chart for now)

-Maybe we get a TC...but if then the price is far away from the ema8 (to risky, because rhythm says if pullaway then price tends to go back to ema21 ..or?!)
-Price wasn't reaching ema21...
-Price is testing a resitance channel
-and besides that...the price is then not far from the 1.3100 price-level

well we see in 1,25 hour.... when the new 4Hour bar is started...

EDIT @ 4H chart, bar close: nothing really changed in my opinion. I think it's to risky => No Deal
I wait for the next signal....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 18 KB
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #25,797
  • Jun 4, 2013 7:50am Jun 4, 2013 7:50am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi mmb - are you able to post a chart for us . It helps us to see what you are looking at and then we can all learn from each others views. My personal feel is for a pull back to the 21 & then a continuation of recent uptrend. The H4 RT which is still forming can indeed become a TC on the H1 if Price can get back to that 21. {image} {image}
yes, sorry ill try to post a pic in a bit. my laptop does not print screen so ill have to use my brothers in an hour or so.

waiting on the AUDUSD for confirmation.
  • #25,798
  • Jun 4, 2013 10:32am Jun 4, 2013 10:32am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi mmb - are you able to post a chart for us . It helps us to see what you are looking at and then we can all learn from each others views. My personal feel is for a pull back to the 21 & then a continuation of recent uptrend. The H4 RT which is still forming can indeed become a TC on the H1 if Price can get back to that 21.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Trendline.jpg Size: 321 KB

this is the trendline on the GBPUSD thats pretty close to price right now that i dont like. this would be the third time price has touched it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Trendline 2.jpg Size: 199 KB

in the blue rectangle theres a long bullish tail and after that price pulls back to the 8ema + a minor trendline (the dark green trendline). its also really close to the 200 sma, which also adds to my discomfort. i dont think price will break through that minor trendline and i personally dont want to worry about the supply in the blue rectangle. ultimately i dont feel too safe in this situation and im not looking for a trade unless price touches the 21 ema, which i dont think will happen.
  • #25,799
  • Jun 4, 2013 3:14pm Jun 4, 2013 3:14pm
long EURUSD
  • #25,800
  • Jun 4, 2013 3:21pm Jun 4, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting mmb91
long EURUSD
Hi mbb91

What is your reason to go long?
There is no new MACD signal at 4Hour or 1Hour chart...?!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
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