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  • #24,401
  • May 31, 2013 1:39am May 31, 2013 1:39am
Quoting pres78
Still trying to figure out where everyone went? Was it something I said?
Nah nothing you said. Everyone must be busy building their VSA sponsored fortunes.. Either that or they think VSA is crap and no way that it can produce 80% win rates.
  • #24,402
  • May 31, 2013 2:15am May 31, 2013 2:15am
Quoting SimpleDev
For those who are starting out in VSA or working on improving your win ratios try working on just these types of setups. Use the previous US session and Asia session as your background, this will put the odds heavily in your favor. You won't see as many setups as you would like just using these types of setups, but you will definitely improve your win rate and come out profitable. Here is our AU chart for 15m, you can very easily see that US session sold, Asia came in today and sold again as well. So our background (both US and Asia) is weak but...
Just a follow up to this, honestly I didn't catch it because as it developed I was looking for a stronger trend down.
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  • #24,403
  • May 31, 2013 7:47am May 31, 2013 7:47am
Watching EU intently we are sitting at a key VZA level and I hope to see a set-up forming very soon into this level.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,404
  • May 31, 2013 9:09am May 31, 2013 9:09am
Quoting pres78
Watching EU intently we are sitting at a key VZA level and I hope to see a set-up forming very soon into this level.
Ended up taking a short off the 30 min sellers 2BR into that fib high shown. It is struggling to go anywhere but USDCHF has taken off upward so I hope that will give this sell some legs to get to at least my 1:1. We will see.

The set-up was also into the low of yesterday's 1 hour zone (green line) but are sitting above the high of May 29th 1hr zone (red line) which has been R&S and acting again as S so a push down through would be great...
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,405
  • May 31, 2013 10:39am May 31, 2013 10:39am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Ended up taking a short off the 30 min sellers 2BR into that fib high shown. It is struggling to go anywhere but USDCHF has taken off upward so I hope that will give this sell some legs to get to at least my 1:1. We will see. The set-up was also into the low of yesterday's 1 hour zone (green line) but are sitting above the high of May 29th 1hr zone (red line) which has been R&S and acting again as S so a push down through would be great... {image}
Just updated my blog with Swissy and Cable charts and summing up the week. Seeing as you mentioned Swissy, i'll add this chart here as well.

I just filed for divorce.
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  • #24,406
  • May 31, 2013 1:43pm May 31, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yeah I realized that after I posted and then looked at my own Gold chart. Last week was increased effort closing below 50% of that weekly UWRB that had some obvious buying in it but no major follow through after and then it dropped off hard again towards the low but again we have found buyers. If this week closes above 1400 we could / should see at minimum a return to the 1495 high of that crazy WRB. Although thus far the volume this week has been lackluster so another review this weekend is needed. For higher TF stuff I have...
Still a couple of hours to go but all in all at this point heading into the day / week and month end for our current bars Gold still looks much more bearish than bullish. Close today is key but if we close on or near the low today a return to 1200 is very possible in the coming month(s). Will take another look this weekend.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,407
  • May 31, 2013 5:38pm May 31, 2013 5:38pm
Flipping through some daily, weekly and monthly charts since all of them closed today and just noticed a lovely bearish reversal candlestick pattern on GBPJPY 3 weeks ago...

Hangman anyone?

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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,408
  • May 31, 2013 6:08pm May 31, 2013 6:08pm
Not going to post them all (if anyone reads this you can look for yourself) but it "appears" that we are in for some GBP weakness next week. Will this playout we will see but I checked 3 and all spell weakness...

GBPJPY - as noted 3 weeks ago we had a hangman, monthly was a squatty UT which I believe in the candlestick world could complete two of the 3 candles needed to complete a bearish evening star pattern we will see if this completes on Monday. For now the pattern is only 2 candles making it a bearish shooting star. This bar also hit and pushed up into a previous supply zone so...

GBPUSD - the monthly closed as a BEOB (bearish outside bar) making a HH and a LL, weekly and daily both closed with buying tails so a bit mixed. We will see if the monthly pattern trumps or not.

GBPCHF - daily almost a pinbar with double tails, weekly was a continuation of a rollover pattern and looks a bit like an UT, closed off the low but still a nice sellers tail. Monthly for me again I beleive trumps and shows so pretty strong weakness with a squatty UT right into the high of a monthly UHV zone, in fact we closed below the high of two UHV monthly zones after a weak break upward. Gold Monthly had a simliar pattern comoplete 3 months ago only on Gold it was a great ND into 50% of an UHV zone right before two months of heavy selling after a failed break upward. Will the increased volume upbar seen on GBPCHF lead to a strong sell off? Time will tell.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,409
  • May 31, 2013 7:51pm May 31, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Still a couple of hours to go but all in all at this point heading into the day / week and month end for our current bars Gold still looks much more bearish than bullish. Close today is key but if we close on or near the low today a return to 1200 is very possible in the coming month(s). Will take another look this weekend.
I am expecting to see some Gold weakness next week. NOT A TRADE CALL!!!

Daily chart formed a picture perfect 2BR (also both a BEOB and BEEB for those who use candle patterns), let's just call it a nice engulfing 2BR...

For fun the weekly was a ND-UT pinbar into the same resistance level... HMM!!! (based on this TF the target could well be 1321.50.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,410
  • May 31, 2013 7:53pm May 31, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Ended up taking a short off the 30 min sellers 2BR into that fib high shown. It is struggling to go anywhere but USDCHF has taken off upward so I hope that will give this sell some legs to get to at least my 1:1. We will see. The set-up was also into the low of yesterday's 1 hour zone (green line) but are sitting above the high of May 29th 1hr zone (red line) which has been R&S and acting again as S so a push down through would be great... {image}
Part 1 hit 1:1, part 2 hit BE
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,411
  • May 31, 2013 11:56pm May 31, 2013 11:56pm
EurNzd 1hr

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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #24,412
  • Edited 4:26am Jun 2, 2013 3:19am | Edited 4:26am
AUD MN chart has no intention to go up? more interstingly is that last three weeks are down bars with increased volumes...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #24,413
  • Jun 2, 2013 6:28am Jun 2, 2013 6:28am
Quoting mima
AUD MN chart has no intention to go up? more interstingly is that last three weeks are down bars with increased volumes...
AUDUSD looks weak for sure however we are at an interesting area where decisions will need to be made. Bounce or lower... which side will SM take.

AU weekly chart first. We are at a previous R level that turned S. We have entered this zone multiple times since the 2010 breakout each time produces various levels of buying. The key here is that based on historical levels there is signifigantly more downside room than up but that does not guaratee we will not bounce again from here. Another weekly note to keep in the back of our minds is that last week candle gave use the lowest close since July 20, 2008. That 93867 low level created on October 10, 2011 is key IMHO to any extended downward moves otherwise we remain within a demand zone.

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AU monthly next. As we can see same story lowest close since July 2008 (makes sense) however the last three times we entered this zone on a ultra wide range bar the resulting PA was immediate rallies back out of the zone the very next month. Mind you each bounce has resulted in a LH and each of the 3 downbars are on decreasing volume.

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AU Daily last. That fib is from that most recent UHV daily bar. As we can see we printed what appears to be a possible SOS however the reaction to this bar and volume was down with the high never even tested. Price rolled over a touch into the low finding some support but if you notice during the roll over they actually tested the 50% level twice before Friday's bar which pushed down and out of the zone low with the first close below. Early action next week should give some clues. For a short trade a ND up into 95926 zone low would be lovely with 200+ pips down to that 93867 level noted above... that is if the breakout seen on Friday was not a fakeout.

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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,414
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:16am Jun 2, 2013 9:16am
Quoting pres78
...AUDUSD looks weak for sure however we are at an interesting area where decisions will need to be made. Bounce or lower... which side will SM take. AU weekly chart first...
Which information you intend to get from chart by using fibonacci?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #24,415
  • Jun 2, 2013 9:43am Jun 2, 2013 9:43am
Quoting mima
{quote} Which information you intend to get from chart by using fibonacci?
H, 50% and L of that highest volume daily bar as described in my post.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,416
  • Jun 2, 2013 6:06pm Jun 2, 2013 6:06pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} AUDUSD looks weak for sure however we are at an interesting area where decisions will need to be made. Bounce or lower... which side will SM take. AU weekly chart first. We are at a previous R level that turned S. We have entered this zone multiple times since the 2010 breakout each time produces various levels of buying. The key here is that based on historical levels there is signifigantly more downside room than up but that does not guaratee we will not bounce again from here. Another weekly note to keep in the back of our minds is that...
Interesting... we have GAPS upon market open accross the board on all AUDxxx and xxxAUD crosses.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,417
  • Jun 2, 2013 8:59pm Jun 2, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Nah nothing you said. Everyone must be busy building their VSA sponsored fortunes.. Either that or they think VSA is crap and no way that it can produce 80% win rates.
We're still here and I'm still using that crap you called "VSA" . I've been aggressively trading, which resulted in +14%

And I've been looking for a new job, lol. So yeah.. been busy vamping up my resume and stuff.

Have a good trading week, all!
Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
  • #24,418
  • Jun 2, 2013 11:33pm Jun 2, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} AUDUSD looks weak for sure however we are at an interesting area where decisions will need to be made. Bounce or lower... which side will SM take. AU weekly chart first. We are at a previous R level that turned S. We have entered this zone multiple times since the 2010 breakout each time produces various levels of buying. The key here is that based on historical levels there is signifigantly more downside room than up but that does not guaratee we will not bounce again from here. Another weekly note to keep in the back of our minds is that...
Nice write up Jason, longer term AU for me is in just an ugly consolidation area. But I just wanted to say that I am finding weekly interesting. Mainly due to the last 3 weeks we have seen higher volume with each week's spread narrowing. Just not sure as of yet if it is buying or trying to absorb the bulls to push down and through the OCT 2011 levels.

Here is a 12h chart of the US Dollar, as of right now it looks as if dollar is in distribution mode. Because of this, I think I favor the weekly chart as AU strengthening, but not enough to take a position either way, would be nice if daily was more convincing for the bulls.
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  • #24,419
  • Jun 2, 2013 11:35pm Jun 2, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting ieatbanana
{quote} We're still here and I'm still using that crap you called "VSA" . I've been aggressively trading, which resulted in +14% And I've been looking for a new job, lol. So yeah.. been busy vamping up my resume and stuff. Have a good trading week, all!
Excellent! Happy to hear you are doing well with VSA. Last week was a great week for VSA trading.

Good luck on your job hunting.
  • #24,420
  • Jun 3, 2013 1:28am Jun 3, 2013 1:28am
Not sure where it's going, but my bias is up at the moment. I'm seeing a few down bars with increasing volume, closing near the mid.

Just waiting to see because I could be wrong
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Yes, I do enjoy eating bananas. Very much.
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