vsa with Malcolm

ES Short

Placed an ES pending short at 1640 around 50 minutes ago which has since triggered. Target is just above low fib at 1633 for 7 point gain if hit. SL above 50% at 1647 making this a 1:1 trade. Will close both halves at 1:1 since it's Friday.

Signal bar marked which was that UT into 50%. Price headed down and all the way back up again but is now headed the right way again

I fucked up today.

Got in on a nice Swissy short, entry at 0.9650 and targeting 0.9600 for 1:1. Set the order, got taken in and it was pretty much straight down to the target. Except I forgot to set the target order so it didn't close. Reversed and made it's way back up helped along by US news. Closed at BE+1. Now, as I type it has pushed back down to my initial target area.

Me ---> <--- Everyone at VSA with Malcolm.

Ouch! Take the good from the trade and move on. The trade was a good one, your analysis and even target / SL placements were good.

Close but no cigar. Decided to close on the retrace up at 1637 for 3 points x 2 positions... better than a kick in the teeth I suppose

Short EU at 2928 after a 1hour 2BR at 50% (Wednesday zone) closing back below and on the low. TP1 at at 2903 (high of yesterdays 1hr zone. 15pip SL will move to BE at this point and let run to target for better than 1:1. Again will manage both parts the same for this trade and not per my normal plan. Friday plan in effect.

Will post chart later.

When can I download this mt4 scanner buddy.

Did anyone else get an email from Gavin claiming their websites had been "attacked" just before his latest webinar on the most manipulated markets in the world?

Trillions a day traded, really don`t think "they" will be worried about a few tradeguider users.

Why the hard sell all the time Gavin?

Yes I got it too..............

I think maybe they got word I was going to post this chart

Tradeguider's dirty little secret:

I've posted a chart like this before, but I have been playing around with the concept again. So here's the rub. Determine the direction of the trend any way you choose. If the trend is UP look for down bars on volume less than the previous two (Tests/No Supply) to get long. If the trend is DOWN, look for up bars on volume less than the previous two (No Demand) to get short.

Take a look at the chart below. Notice that volume is not even on the screen.

All one has to do is code for up/down bars on volume less than the previous two. You can go a step further and code for narrow range up/down bars on increasing volume (squats/end of a rising market/bag holding/basic Tests). Notice on the chart below you don't even need to know if it is a Test/No Supply signal, which is on low volume. Or if it is a Squat, which is a high volume signal. Either way, in the right place, you would want to enter....

Anyway, I don't want to say too much on this subject. I just wanted to get some people thinking outside the box.

I should add one thing for those who understand the basic definition of trend. Once we see a Lower Pivot High (LPH), we know we are in a down trend. We can't be in an up trend if we are making lower pivot lows and lower pivot highs. Then we see a Higher Pivot Low (HPL). Although the definition of an up trend is Higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows, we don't actually know the trend is up until prices makes it above the most recent LPH. At that point the market would be making a higher pivot high and higher pivot low: an Up trend.


**EDIT**


Just added another picture. This picture shows the secret even more. After a Lower Pivot High (LPH) which confirms the trend is down(You can't be in an up trend if you are making lower pivot lows and lower pivot highs) we see the start of a "selling cycle". The definition of a selling cycle is not important. What is important is this. When the trend is down we see an up bar on volume less than the previous two intervals. Technically this is not a No Demand as the range is not narrow. Yet, we know that there are no real buyers here as the activity is low. Again, we could simply sell this bar and not ever had to look at a volume histogram to do it. Because we have already established that low volume signs of weakness in a down trend are ideal places to get short.

Obviously traders evolve their trading activity...Mantra "Charts never lie" with only one time frame , price and volume bars transformed to at least 3 time frames, moving averages and some other indicators....Trading is simple endless ongoing learning process.

Wow, this thread is nicely boiling

I have been studying median lines by Tim Morge lately and they seem to be a very powerful tool to have in your arsenal.

This is an hourly FTSE100 chart, from a VSA perspective you can clearly see the SM but just look at how price responds to the median line and then respects the lower warning line.

Pending EU short into the 50% of that May 22nd 1hr UHV, UWRB zone. Will set if confirmed by 15 min close...

Edit 1 - Confirmed with 15min NBP but trade has not triggered yet. Adjusted entry to be at low of 15 min bar and will wait 2 bars unless we close back above 50% on the 1st bar then I will cancel.

Edit 2 - And void...

Gez40 - Yes I also got an email from Gavin that they are attacked. Looks like a marketing gimmick to me.

For those who are starting out in VSA or working on improving your win ratios try working on just these types of setups.

Use the previous US session and Asia session as your background, this will put the odds heavily in your favor. You won't see as many setups as you would like just using these types of setups, but you will definitely improve your win rate and come out profitable.

Here is our AU chart for 15m, you can very easily see that US session sold, Asia came in today and sold again as well. So our background (both US and Asia) is weak but our trend is still up. So from here we are just patiently waiting for the trend to change then we can start selling those UTs and NDs.

Under my profile a while ago, I use to have Mark Douglas Trading in the Zone listed as my favorite trading book. I think most of us who frequently visit this thread have read it. The main idea is that trading is a game of number, you find an edge greater than 50% win rate and you take every setup. Its good advise for most, in my very humble opinion I think VSA is more than just a MA crossover system mixed with some random indicator that gives the trader a 54.78654% advantage over the market. I think VSA shows us how to actually read the market, know what is going on, so for me a numbers game isn't how I should/want to trade. I start with simple obvious setups where I know with great certainty what is happening, and as I get better with my skills I can slowly move up to trickier setups.

Sorry for the long post, just voicing some thoughts rattling around in my head.

I'm officially not talking to USD/CHF any more. Temperamental bitch.

1. Last Friday.

2. Overnight/Today.

There is one thing I can take from this trade. The place where I got stopped actually completed a buy signal (staggered top) but I decided not to take it as it was right below that zone. I could've chased it and got stung twice. Happy I didn't.

Still trying to figure out where everyone went? Was it something I said?

Anywho... as HG likes to say "chart dump"!

Same old EU levels that have been on here all month, still being respected as prices moves. We made our way up to a shared level (May 2nd and May 9th 1 hr zones) at today's current high, this level as expected was respected and there was some supply present (or at least profit taking...) Either way price touched and stopped at this level even if only temporarily.

Nice...

I hope everyone is quietly making some big pips using VSA, perhaps there is nothing left to learn or to teach here...

I mentioned gold a week or so ago, anyone bullish?

weekly chart.

Not yet for me not from a longer term, higher TF perspective. Loads of effort on that upbar yesterday so the next days will be key to seeing true direction.

Now for my lower TF intraday trading bullish and bearish doesn't matter too much to me personally. Trade the swings within the larger moves.

That`s a weekly chart not daily, how high do you go?

Yeah I realized that after I posted and then looked at my own Gold chart. Last week was increased effort closing below 50% of that weekly UWRB that had some obvious buying in it but no major follow through after and then it dropped off hard again towards the low but again we have found buyers. If this week closes above 1400 we could / should see at minimum a return to the 1495 high of that crazy WRB. Although thus far the volume this week has been lackluster so another review this weekend is needed.

For higher TF stuff I have been playing with weekly and monthly zones and Daily / 4 hour entries. Still in testing stages at this point so my lower TF intraday stuff though time cosuming and painful to trade for me now is still my # 1 money maker.