vsa with Malcolm

see monthly chart....need to hit somewhere demand to stop down move.

Bad Day

Hahhahahahaahahahaa. That made my day!

OK since I am off work today (great to be off my fulltime job when there are bank holidays since trading is so awesome on those days ) I am posting another follow up post and chart to myself...

Same EU 1 hour chart showing the yellow weekly bar fib zone noted in my earlier post with one thing added... I put a fib on from the weekly zone high (100%) to the zone 75%... why did I so this? Because it fit so well. Split the zone quater into 35 pip pockets and well let's be honest that new sub 50% level has provided some great support (and some resistance) since Wednesday last week.

As I am writing this we have made our way back to the daily high which is almost to the pip the same level as that weekly fib 100% level. The last 3 hourly bars coming up from support have been on ever reducing volume so I would be most surprised to see that level taken out but who knows SM may take advantage of low liquidity to take prices back up and out of the zone...

All I know for sure is I know already what levels I will be watching for trades come LO tommorow...

I use BV which shows selling climax prior to squat...which is supply into demand...Squat just stoped selling and at demand started buying.So yes, that squat was good entry.

As I noted in my earlier post SM could well take out that level which should not have given way on ND simply because they could with everyone having the day off. No matter how much SM like to take advantage or manipulate the markets at a whim the levels laid out to me through VZA still hold true and are very much respected on the way up.

WHO - Me, myself and I, I am responsible to plan my trades and trade my plan, never deviate!

WHAT - VSA and PA set-ups into key levels defined by VZA, always considering BG (how you define BG or trend is up to you, depends also on what type of a trader you are.

WHEN - SM will give the signs, watch closely.

WHERE - VZA gives me the key levels, volume at volume... where SM are active once they will be again.

WHY - Many times the big moves are NEWS driven because the SM are manipulative BASTARD!!!

HOW - My Trade Plan leads the way... if you trade with no plan, then you plan to fail. Every business needs a plan and trading is no different.

Yes they are bastards.


So can you show that weekly or H1 chart where you placed your fibs, please? I still don't understand where and why you put fibs at location you placed them. Thank you.

Mima,

No problem I will try and clear up which bars I applied the fibs to so I got the zones I have been using for my trading. VZA itself is the placement of the zones which with anything is a bit discretionary (line trend lines or channels etc...) simply because of a couple issues;

 

1. Each traders understanding of PA,along with support and resistance placement
2. Each brokers varying volume (my charts right now are FxPro Australia MT4)

The yellow fib was originally (last week) from the November 7, 2012 daily bar but I moved it to the January 8, 2012 weekly bar (see chart 1). This weekly bar for me is the highest volume bar since Jan 2012 and is exactly where price action currently is. Are there highesr volume zones further back, sure are but this zone works and makes sense and is a zone I can trade within and away from. I have removed all other zones to make it nice and clear but I do watch above and below EU current PA by 250 pips for target zones each week.

Now look at chat 2... The green fib is simply adding a fib between the 100% and 75% levels on the weekly (yellow) zone. I did this because it made sense and put a level where we had seen previous S & R and still left room to trade.

Also on the chart 2 I have two blue fibs which are 1hr zones... the lowest one from Friday which was that days highest volume zone right at the bottom showing the buyers that did get picked up at that level. The upper blue zone is from Thursday and again was the highest volume 1hr zone from that day... the time at the high showing the sellers that had come into the market.

You can see on that second chart how price has moved in and around and away from these levels.

I mean just look at today's PA. Weekend GAP up right into the green fib 50%, down and found support at the lower blue fib high, up and we see resistance at that green 50% level... push up and we get a rejection at the low of the upper blue zone which is also the high of that yellow weekly zone, back down to find support at that green 50% back up with more effort / rejection at that shared level, push up through but look where the push up stops... right at another level, this time 50% of that Thursday blue zone (2900ish round number also)...

Hope this explains a bit how I applied the fibs. I could go on forever about all the little nuances that makes up my bastardized trading method called VZA which is VSA combined with good old fashioned PA trading with a little S & R thrown in but this is neither the time nor the place.

Yenny Bears Anyone? Food for Thought (Disclaimer - NOT A TRADE CALL!!!)

Look at both EURJPY and USDJPY (and GBPJPY if you want...) daily closes today. Now there was EUR and CDN bank holidays so lower than normal volumes were seen and expected...


Possible Daily TF trades did set up on both pairs today.

1. USDJPY was a nice NS right into the high of the most recent highest volume daily bar (blue fib) which is basically right at the round 102 level. More topside to come or have we reached a peak? Time will tell. Zoomed out monthly chart shows we have been here before and there is still loads of topside room. The daily bar today made a LL than Friday, dipped below but closed above 102 on the lowest volume in 8 days.
2. EURJPY was a nice test right into 50% and the low of the most recent highest volume daily bar (blue fib) which is (the low) right around the 131 round number level. Again more topside or have we reached a peak? Time will tell. Zoomed out monthly chart shows we have been here before and there is still loads of topside room. The daily bar made a LL than Friday in fact it's the lowest low in 7 bars and the lowest low since we broke that key 131 ressistance (previous swing high). Lowest volume in 10 bars and we closed above both the low and 50% levels.

Now don't get me wrong the Yen pairs have been in crazy uptrends seeing massive Yen weakness for what seems like forever so a trend reversal or at least a correction could and should be expected but I can't ignore these "POSSIBLE" set-ups and thought I would share for everyone's thoughts and comments or perhaps just to clear my head.

Don't forget...

U.S.dollar retreats broadly on caution before Bernanke

U.S.Faces Downgrade in 2013 Without Budget Deal, Moody’s Warns

QEHalt Would Be 'Too Violent' for Market: Fed's Fisher

Oh and ...

DJ:Econ Minister Suggests Yen Strength Largely Corrected

“Many say the yen's excessive strength has been largely "corrected," and further weakness could be harmful, Japan's economy minister said Sunday, suggesting the Japanese government may be happy with the currency's current level.”

So what the hell does that mean? Further weakness could be harmful... OH My GOD Japan is going to start buying the Yen again so everyone should start selling USDJPY and EURJPY and ADJPY and GBPJPY so we are sided with the SM... HMM or is the JapanFinance Minister playing games looking for some free Yen weakness without having to pump tons of money out to do so. Wouldn't it be just as easy to let the Yen sit where it is and monitor quietly...
Nope they are all the same and all love the spotlight to create panic allowing them to do what they choose.

Let the market show you the way. Patience is our greatest virtue as traders. Never chase a moving bus because the bus may stop quickly, pull a U-turn and run you over.

Just for fun I love this one because it fits so nicely with the other 3 recent US news items...

Fed’sEvans: Economy improving ‘quite a lot’

USDJPY M3

Arrow points no demand

GU Pending Shorts

Green line is a 4hr pending short at the low of a ND/UT - Will adjust / close as the next bars form (when I am awake)

Blue line is a Daily pending short at the low of today's NBP - inside bar

AUDUSD H6

arrow shows weak, ehausted demand

It seams that my guessing was correct....

Honestly I have a feeling that this is going to be a messy week. FF calender has a lot of heavy news events for the rest of the week. Going through my charts and thought I would share a longer term view of DX.

First is a 2h chart.

on 5/17 we had some big volume on a weak closing up bar, that as of right now is at the top of the chart. The trend appears to be starting to weaken and an UT that just printed.

Daily.

5/10 weak up bar with very little volume, no interest from the bigger players perhaps? Big volume on a up bar on 5/16 followed by a 2 bar at the top of the chart.

What do you mean the X/JPY pairs are weak?

A wide spread up bar with high volume followed by effort to rise then an UT mixed with a ND and a failed test is good for higher prices, right?

Just a chart dump....

There's a reason the new MT4 scanner will go back 25 intervals. There's also a reason why the scanner focuses on tend.

My point is that people (not here) but in other forums and in the news keep calling tops but higher TF price action shows that we could still see more topside before anything more than a mere correction...

AUDUSD H6

arrow shows sellers strike in back ground of weak demand

Good to see some posts again mate, couldn't stay away for too long!

Nice call on GU helped along by a bit of news so far. I've annotated a GU chart for the past few weeks. There's a nice short highlighted from the low of a higher zone. Unfortunately didn't catch that one. Yesterday I took a long for the up move based on the following which i've marked as well.

Two charts, one zoomed out to show where the lower zone came from and the other with the above annotations.

A different view for the GU shorts that pres78 spoke about today. These zones are carried over from the 1hr HLC chart instead of being zones based on PnF columns, like the last charts I posted previously.

This is going back to something I spoke about a while ago and I'm still experimenting with, 3 box reversals with low volume representing No Demand or No Supply. I have my six favoured PnF signals that I look for but these aren't always there. So i've been looking for another way to trade these Volume Zones. I call it VPZFA (Volume Point Zone Figure Analysis)