I know this is late but I'll just post my opinion anyway 
. I think what the OP wants here is a free lunch, a guaranteed money-making formula that will never fail. I don't believe such a thing can exist in something as complex as the financial market. When someone decides to start their own business, do you they have a formula that has pre-calculated the positive or negative expectancy of their business in the long run? No, and as a matter of fact it is known that 90-95% of all new business fail in the first 5 years (like traders?
). Nevertheless, some businesses do become successful for a great number of years. These businesses haven't figured out a secret money-making formula that will always produce profits. RISK is always there and past results are no guarantee of future performance. Same with trading and all of finance. With that said, one of the principals of TA is that trader behavior repeats itself and therefore price movement can be exploited. If you don't believe that then this debate will never be resolved.
Also, those negative expectancy calculations that you applied to casino games are valid because casino games are DESIGNED based on mathematical formulas that will produce more profit for the casino than the player. I just don't see how you can apply such calculations to the market as if the market has a grand architect who designed it to operate according to a certain formula.
. I think what the OP wants here is a free lunch, a guaranteed money-making formula that will never fail. I don't believe such a thing can exist in something as complex as the financial market. When someone decides to start their own business, do you they have a formula that has pre-calculated the positive or negative expectancy of their business in the long run? No, and as a matter of fact it is known that 90-95% of all new business fail in the first 5 years (like traders?). Nevertheless, some businesses do become successful for a great number of years. These businesses haven't figured out a secret money-making formula that will always produce profits. RISK is always there and past results are no guarantee of future performance. Same with trading and all of finance. With that said, one of the principals of TA is that trader behavior repeats itself and therefore price movement can be exploited. If you don't believe that then this debate will never be resolved.Also, those negative expectancy calculations that you applied to casino games are valid because casino games are DESIGNED based on mathematical formulas that will produce more profit for the casino than the player. I just don't see how you can apply such calculations to the market as if the market has a grand architect who designed it to operate according to a certain formula.
