NZD/USD

nice end to the week. after selling into the bounces, i was able to reload my longs again at 0.7965. Average cost now 0.8044, not counting for about 8pips in swap collected since the ride started. better luck to all (kiwi longs that is) next week!

you i have a bad feeling about NZD this is the most stupid currency at all. the stupid most i am getting sever losses in this currency like NZDUSD

Why Stupid ? not more stupid than other. and less than EUR trust me !

Thats they way to do it brother, hold with confidence as the Kiwi will not stay here, if you can hold until .3 then you have nothing to worry about and it just like your funds are in a savings account paying decent interest.

That is playing it safe...

Good stuff

An attractive girl trading? Never seen this before, i am impressed

xetrader

interesting move on NU: friday, end of month, are some traders getting rid of the losers? dressing up the charts? Harvesting the weak longs?
I suspect there were significant SL's harvested at just below 0.80, and again below 0.7955.
It's good to look at charts, but the big players are looking at them too. And is there a better time than late on a Friday, to move the market? I do not try to anticipate these apparently irrational moves, but i don't get frustrated when they happen. Usually they do present a nice trade opportunity. As the vetereans here state again and again, trade within your means and comfort zone.

Looking at CNY PMI today 1 pm NZ Time. Is Kiwi going toward a low 78 handle? All positions deep in profits at current.

Hello,
Well it's been almost month I have not touched NU. Don't know why but I am not feeling comfortable. Now it's May end so we can expect some bullish movement but if I look at my charts, I feel still it can touch bottoms. I have attached my weekly,daily and h4 charts.

Weekly:

I have added fib from lowest of 2008 and to the highest of 2011. I suppose it's enough time frame for analysis. We know the 2008 collapse had some different reasons but still I will consider it. So looking at fib, RSI and AC I can see a probability of drop around .76 to .75 in next couple of months. But again if we look at the trade-line this probability minimizes to around .78x
So we can expect some 100-200 pips drop if the coming in June turns out to be bad for NZD.


Daily:

Now if we consider daily chart, it's near to the oversold region. So we can expect some north. But how much? Well if the trend reversal (which is likely to happen as May sell off is almost over) takes place then we can see .84 or .85 too but if the current trend continues then you can see the channel this pair is following. This chart doesn't contain the 2nd fib (I removed to minimize mess)but if we add fib to Jan 2011 low to June 2011 high it's already at 50% retracement level. So again we can expect it to come down to 38.2% (.77x) or at worst 23.6%(.75x)
RSI oversold so if the current trend continues we can expect the bull to touch the upper trade channel which is around .81x


h4:

Now if you look at daily and h4 we can see a confirmation of some north movement with some little south. This too shows the possibility of .81x
So for now considering current trend we can enter in the market for long with r/r of 1:1 or 1:1.5

Disclaimer:
This analysis is completely based on my knowledge. I am a semi pro trader so I may lack in some points. Also this analysis is considering current down trend. Trend reversal can void it's existence. I will scalp based on this h4 and my h1 with tight SLs but for macros, I will wait till mid June for clear trend confirmation. Even if last couple of years market shown some trend reversal patterns, it's not necessary to happen again as no one can predict the fundamental moves which are mainly based on big players. So considering a confirmation of trend reversal on the basis of last couple of years and entering in market for longs with huge r/r can be dangerous.

Again I will be glad to receive your comments, suggestions or even lacking/missing points from this analysis are most welcomed.

The stochastic is telling us that a primary bottom on the Kiwi is just in formation, but something is still missing ...

Another view. Will it hold or will it fold?

and another.

My thoughts are that this is becoming a great buying opportunity and i will likely be jumping into it if we start to touch the lines shown on this monthly chart.

The Monthly closing for NZDUSD hit the trendline and the month of June will determine for us where this pair will be heading in the near future. As of now, I maintain a bearish view on this pair given that the bear force is still strong after uncertainty wick formed previously.... click on my attached file for more details

Alternatively, you may visit for more ccy analysis on http://alternateforexiew.wordpress.com and please feel free to drop me any comment!

Hopefully we will see a small bounce from this level- at least to 0.8000 I would think.

H4 Chart

also take a look at the AU charts. As the aussi goes, so does the kiwi. Much more bullish picture there.

damn!!! i like June a load better than May. closed 1/5th of my NU long armada at 0.8100 with 111 pip green. the rest is getting a new SL. i think this is the reversal, but it could be another deja vu all over again

Let's see what happens later today NZ time with regards to the Aussie OCR (RBA). Weaker US data and currency have pushed both pairs higher, but I would like to re-assess the situation later today after RBA OCR announcement.

I don't know NZDUSD but I would go long on AUDNZD after seeing market reaction to AU interest rate announcement, there is really reversal in trend and we have now bounce back which is good entry position, but RB of AU rate announcement so we must watch. NZDUSD is little difficult to judge as it depends on USD with other majors.

Kiwi is looking like a entrancement from last night's enthusiasm. Interested in checking out Aussie entrancement and reaction to OCR later today - flow on affect to the Kiwi undoubtedly.

my remaining longs NU got stopped out early today, locking in nice profit.
the kiwi held above the 80, so i'm adding longs again here. at this point i'm trading strictly off past resistance levels, ignoring apparent momentum. that has worked best for me with this pair.