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Attachments: AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday)
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AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday)

  • #221
  • May 30, 2013 6:20pm May 30, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} i figured as much whatever works right? what bond markets are you into
Currently in two macro trades, long ITDE spread from 250bps and also long USDE spreads from 55bps. Other than that do arb with FTMIB and IT10's or DE10's and DAX.

Sometimes in Gilts but also got long US2s10s on the so called "recovery" and tapering stuff.
  • #222
  • Edited 6:40pm May 30, 2013 6:22pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting JeremyWS
Thoughts re. Short EURNZD here, Stochs and RSI are good, also at overextension level, move to 23% fib for TP Second shows NZD vs 1Y forward defined swaps. Short term undervaluation for some decent arb via forwards and spot. All in all, looks like NZD could be a tad bullish over coming few sessions {image} {image}
Great short...


That's the exact type of price spike I love to fade. Funny isn't it, how the most illiquid parts of the market happen near the strong reversal levels, creating a strong catalyst to actually reverse.

I will point to Aussie/Yen after April 4th 2013, as the most recent example.

That spike faded 78.6% intitially (and recently, faded 100% to the release point on april 4th), because it reached 200 pips from 2006/2007 highs (whatever it was).. showing monthly divergence potential. They immediately shorted on a 20 pip break of that divergence high. Sometimes it can go 100s of pips higher before actually closing the candle and reversing, but sometimes it will just leave a wick and the level will be traded immediately after a break (such in this case it was like 20-50 pips break, but of course couldn't close above the divergence high)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #223
  • May 30, 2013 6:31pm May 30, 2013 6:31pm
In fact, the entire yen spike over the last 6 months will likely see a big fade to it.

It's extremely inefficient and illiquid, and rightfully so... its central bank intervention based price action.


Any sign of risk off and the yen will rally so hard.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #224
  • May 30, 2013 6:45pm May 30, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Correct, that would make sense to me. Aussie down fall is not just because of yields lowering. It certainly was the catalyst for enough large bets to be placed, to cause the price to fall. I think even more so than the rate cut, Aussie was dying for a technical correction on a 5 year scale. Even if the RBA didn't cut, it couldn't have just consolidated between parity and 1.06 for all eternity. Even if policy didn't chance between the FED or the RBA for the next 50 years, Aussie would have broke down below parity eventually. Besides, now...
I like where you're going. I think .937, and then I'll kick my bearishness lol. It's just what the charts tell me. Although equities are riskier - I thought they were 100 pts ago or more - they won't flop until the fed pulls out. The fed is the only driver to these extremes.

Like I was trying to explain to other patrons of Aussie, it's a culmination of factors that drove it down IMO. Not just fundaments, technicals or whatever. All I can say, even with the dollar down a good % Aussie has no ambition to pop yet.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #225
  • May 31, 2013 2:55am May 31, 2013 2:55am
stock closing bidding auction minute on ASX 4:10 pm. Futures drop 1% in a minute.

Very unusual. Other markets no immediate reaction but started falling around 15 min after. Fundamental news released to privileged ?

Eyes open for extra large range day....
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  • #226
  • Edited 1:51pm May 31, 2013 1:37pm | Edited 1:51pm
Since its about the weekend.. I'll post something a little offtopic to currencies and trading. Although it can be related to trading.

Here is a silver chart.

I am looking at this from an investment stand point.


Investment for me = no stop loss


Look at the Dow/Gold ratio... the most bullish chart in the world for gold.

Watch this video if you have any doubts in the metals... and have any doubt in future central bank inflation.

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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #227
  • May 31, 2013 3:00pm May 31, 2013 3:00pm
Enjoy the weekend folks

Hope you all had a good week

See you next


Inserted Video
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #228
  • May 31, 2013 3:21pm May 31, 2013 3:21pm
another great video... this one isn't recent though

From April 2012.


I had no idea about the NY trading hours and gold... thats insane.


Inserted Video
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #229
  • Jun 1, 2013 11:42pm Jun 1, 2013 11:42pm
Any good ideas on AUDJPY?

Thanks in advance.
  • #230
  • Jun 6, 2013 1:20pm Jun 6, 2013 1:20pm
Been a while since I've posted. Haven't had much time on the computer lately. Other business to deal with.


Took these trades last night and they have really taken off.


Have taken 25% profit off for 175 pips but mostly I want to hold these.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #231
  • Jun 6, 2013 7:22pm Jun 6, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting forexstrah
Any good ideas on AUDJPY? Thanks in advance.
AJ is a disaster. I know the forex market doesn't have gaps but I do see one on my daily chart around 89. I wouldn't think about it until then. AU is probably a better choice if you want to play aussie long.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #232
  • Jun 6, 2013 7:24pm Jun 6, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Been a while since I've posted. Haven't had much time on the computer lately. Other business to deal with. Took these trades last night and they have really taken off. Have taken 25% profit off for 175 pips but mostly I want to hold these. {image}
R2, you have idea for AU? I was thinking retrace back to 99-100 near term. Especially if USD continues.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #233
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:15am Jun 7, 2013 2:15am
Quoting whatever007
{quote} R2, you have idea for AU? I was thinking retrace back to 99-100 near term. Especially if USD continues.

I'll start with a 9750 target.

Hard for me to see it going much higher, at least this month. If we have a nice monthly close those targets (99-100) I think are doable in July.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #234
  • Jun 7, 2013 2:17am Jun 7, 2013 2:17am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} I'll start with a 9750 target. Hard for me to see it going much higher, at least this month. If we have a nice monthly close those targets (99-100) I think are doable in July.

yes i agree too... 97XX
  • #235
  • Jun 8, 2013 11:21pm Jun 8, 2013 11:21pm
Forgot to post one other trade I took Friday

EURAUD short

Back to my old chart setup. It's just too good to ignore.

Was fun trading naked for a while but my understanding of how these EMAs work is just too good




This has some carry potential, but it will need that double top first.

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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #236
  • Jun 22, 2013 3:41am Jun 22, 2013 3:41am
sorry not able to keep this thread very active...

aud crosses all looking saturated, no waves at all... just complete smash...we will see a retrace wave soon... on all of these pairs.


audjpy and audcad look particularly appealing to me

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #237
  • Jun 29, 2013 8:19am Jun 29, 2013 8:19am
Hello,

Please, may i ask you how you see aud/jpy in the next week?

Thank you very much
Don't give up
  • #238
  • Jul 24, 2017 4:20am Jul 24, 2017 4:20am
EUR/AUD sell stop entry @ 1,45691
SL @ 1,48153
Expiry date 25.07.
  • #239
  • May 31, 2019 7:30am May 31, 2019 7:30am
euraud
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The Current Ratios indicator have reached critical value, too many traders expect a downward movement. In this case, we recommend standing aside with short trades. Long trades only.
  • #240
  • Jun 4, 2019 7:21am Jun 4, 2019 7:21am
euraud
Attachment g

The Current Ratios indicator have reached critical value, too many traders expect a downward movement. In this case, we recommend standing aside with short trades. Long trades only.
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