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  • #31,201
  • May 29, 2013 11:08pm May 29, 2013 11:08pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} That should be your number one goal......read all 20 books before you place another trade..................
It is always great to be knowledgeable. However, knowing "how to" and application are two distinct aspects. Experience is the key to successful trading, although learning application shouldn't necessarily be done on a live account.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,202
  • May 29, 2013 11:16pm May 29, 2013 11:16pm
Quoting livingston12
{quote} there is when mix news occur, but now trend is all bad news......all agent also say aud down down down........unless some turn and say aud is going to bull now........but do you hear any? icic, you are bear, then we are on the same ship..........let short until 0.6
Brother it is very likely that the Aussie dollar will never see 0.6 again.

Just compare the respective outlooks for the USA (and the collapse of its currency which is not a case of if but when) and the Australian economy which will be running an annual surplus right around the time that the US goverment national debt tops $20 TRILLION.

Once rates rise which they will do at extreme levels do you know how much the interest alone will be on that note?

It is unsustainable and all we are doing right now is fire fighting until the enevitable. The Aussie will appreciate steadily over time as the Chinese economy grows at between 5 and 7% minimum over the next 10 years. There will be a huge shift in global power to Asia and the Aussie will be forced further and further upward.

The world as you know it will be very different in 2030 and beyond. By all means enter a short and place the TP at 0.6 (in the next 10 years alone the swaps will eat your account ten times over.

If the Aussie gets to 0.6 you can spend the night with my wife every friday for the rest of your life
Money never sleeps...
  • #31,203
  • Edited 11:34pm May 29, 2013 11:18pm | Edited 11:34pm
Since we are hanging out let us discuss this logically.Can someone answer my question please.


Isn't there a good reason for price either to go up or down? If yes then why is that buying at extreme low or selling Top makes sense.Remember price is low or high for a reason.
Why was it good idea in 2012 2011 2010 but not now.Why is "now" different.
I am just trying to make a point that price travels both ways and either way there are reason why and those reasons are not permanent and they change and that's what economics call a cycle ,a wave.Its simply supply and demand.Price goes in maximum momentum push either way then exhaust itself and reverse.That's just nature.Newtonian laws.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.weekly.png Size: 43 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #31,204
  • May 29, 2013 11:31pm May 29, 2013 11:31pm
tried shorting but broke the channel... going long...
  • #31,205
  • May 29, 2013 11:31pm May 29, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting Davit
Since we are hanging out let us discuss this logically.Can someone answer my question please. Isn't there a good reason for price either to go up or down? If yes then why is that buying at extreme low or selling Top makes sense.Remember price is low or high for a reason.
Is that philosophical? lol Tops and bottoms are relative. Intraday top might be great in the short-term but not mean anything long-term. I think we get caught up trying to rationalize everything with preconceived notions. It's like going long because of it's swap. The carry trade in Aussie is clearly not happening currently, so why fight it? Or going long because it is oversold when clearly moves up have not changed sentiment.

I shorted the S&P in Jan. and got stopped out. Again a few months later. "Man this market is out of control. It's way too overvalued." Lost again. It comes to a point where you have to say Feck it and trade it for what is happening in the hear and now.

I have a professor who teaches energy futures for my degree. He tried to conform traditional ideologies as bullish and bearish to students who never heard of this stuff. I think it's a disservice. Inventories in crude and nat. gas, for example. He says if there is a shortage it's bullish and a surplus it's bearish, but it is not as cut and dry as that. Last week's inventories indicated a shortage, according to him was bullish. However it was less than forecasted and crude tanked. If somebody traded on that preconceived notion, they would have lost money.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,206
  • May 29, 2013 11:36pm May 29, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting sandycarrot
{quote} hi,, {image}
Hi sandycarrot. Thanks for pointing out the other formulas in the other thread. Good job sir.
  • #31,207
  • May 29, 2013 11:40pm May 29, 2013 11:40pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Is that philosophical?.
I was not being philosophical at all.I posted weekly chart to illustrate that price hitting low or high had its reasons so sky is not falling and yes price will go up again which it has done so repeatedly before despite of reasons that it was where it was..
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #31,208
  • May 29, 2013 11:43pm May 29, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}I was not being philosophical at all.I posted weekly chart to illustrate that price hitting low or high had its reasons so sky is not falling and yes price will go up again which it has done so repeatedly before.
OK, I get that. Aussie jumping 80 pips in a decline of 1000 is nothing to write home about, and I posted the same chart you did weeks ago which was my main... eh, I give up
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,209
  • May 29, 2013 11:46pm May 29, 2013 11:46pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: funnytraderemotionchart.jpg Size: 42 KB
.
  • #31,210
  • May 29, 2013 11:48pm May 29, 2013 11:48pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} OK, I get that. Aussie jumping 80 pips in a decline of 1000 is nothing to write home about, and I posted the same chart you did weeks ago which was my main... eh, I give up

Chart I posted Aussie went 1052pips weekly chart!!!! may of 2012
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.weekly.png Size: 42 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #31,211
  • May 29, 2013 11:48pm May 29, 2013 11:48pm
Quoting HelloOz
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=965298&d=1337337033
Hahahha

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ea7POA68MbY
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,212
  • May 29, 2013 11:50pm May 29, 2013 11:50pm
Quoting HelloOz
{image}.
brilliant!
ahhaha
  • #31,213
  • May 29, 2013 11:54pm May 29, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting HelloOz
{image}.

HAHAHAH THATS ME! I'm drowned in my shorts ATM and Im laughing!
  • #31,214
  • May 29, 2013 11:56pm May 29, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Chart I posted Aussie went 1052pips weekly chart!!!! may of 2012 {image}
And I was talking about the -1000 over the last month. It took three months for that move. I am not arguing that price may or may not go up. I posted a bounce would happen at .955 and Im looking at +120. These micro-moves happen, but it's not a game changer. Don't get me wrong either, micro-moves can make you money, but I think at this point 1.00, let alone 1.06 is far, far, far, far away as long as current market conditions exist.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,215
  • May 29, 2013 11:56pm May 29, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Chart I posted Aussie went 1052pips weekly chart!!!! may of 2012 {image}
May 2012, RBA made a surprise 0.50 rate cut, economists predicted 0.25 cut.
May 2013, RBA made a surprise 0.25 rate cut, economist predicted no cut.

i found alot of similarities ...

bloomberg surveyed 75% chance RBA will cut another 0.25 next month.
if RBA does not cut next week... guess where will AUD go???
  • #31,216
  • May 29, 2013 11:56pm May 29, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} HAHAHAH THATS ME! I'm drowned in my shorts ATM and Im laughing!
Psychosis?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,217
  • May 29, 2013 11:58pm May 29, 2013 11:58pm
Pip Anon
You still have not answered my questions at all.
If price has fundamental reasons to be low or high then why is that it does not stay UP or Down for prolong period of time.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #31,218
  • May 29, 2013 11:58pm May 29, 2013 11:58pm
Quoting HelloOz
{quote} May 2012, RBA made a surprise 0.50 rate cut, economists predicted 0.25 cut.May 2013, RBA made a surprise 0.25 rate cut, economist predicted no cut. i found alot of similarities ... bloomberg surveyed 75% chance RBA will cut another 0.25 next month.if RBA does not cut next week... guess where will AUD go???

No where? lol. No rate cut still leave Aussie in it's current position. Don't know how optimistic that expectation is.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,219
  • May 29, 2013 11:59pm May 29, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} HAHAHAH THATS ME! I'm drowned in my shorts ATM and Im laughing!
me too.. im laughed too hard.. ended up crying..
loll..

look at the chart,
we have inverse LS and H.. .969 is neckline..
if price comes down to form RS today or tomorrow..
we are set to run up next week..

daily candle also looks bullish..
  • #31,220
  • May 30, 2013 12:06am May 30, 2013 12:06am
Quoting Davit
Pip AnonYou still have not answered my questions at all.If price has fundamental reasons to be low or high then why is that it does not stay UP or Down for prolong period of time.
You tell me? Do you think the US economy is driving all-time equity highs? When you try to narrow it down into singular reasonings you shut out the other shit that is happening.

I am not driving Aussie down. Do the fundamentals stink? Sure. Is it a technical mess? A little. Do I analyze the current fundamentals, technicals and sentiment to determine an overall outlook? Yea.

It really doesn't matter what I say because none of it will suit you. To be honest, I don't care what any of it really is as long as it allows me to accurately analyze it, and I think my charts have proven so.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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