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Attachments: AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday)
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AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday)

  • #181
  • May 27, 2013 4:45pm May 27, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Mr.C
Hey guys. AUD/JPY - short from 97,42.

Closed at b/e. Decided not to leave through the night.
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #182
  • May 27, 2013 8:09pm May 27, 2013 8:09pm
Quoting whatever007
Was just looking at AJ, to me it looks like long as long as it holds 97. {image}
Decent looking move off 97.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #183
  • May 27, 2013 8:45pm May 27, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting whatever007
{quote} Decent looking move off 97.
Or a chance to short, we'll see.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #184
  • May 28, 2013 6:53am May 28, 2013 6:53am
Quoting whatever007
Was just looking at AJ, to me it looks like long as long as it holds 97. {image}
AJ still trucking. The 99.5-100 area should be interesting.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #185
  • May 28, 2013 6:24pm May 28, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Anyways with Aussie. Currently at 78% Fib, which is acting like resistance. May was to retest. My swing low theory is void if it fails to break this resistance. Target 1 .9665 hit. Next .955 {image}
Boom, got it again
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #186
  • May 28, 2013 6:27pm May 28, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Boom, got it again
Nice no bottom in sight for that thing.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #187
  • May 28, 2013 6:27pm May 28, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Boom, got it again

how low you think this baby is going to go?
  • #188
  • May 28, 2013 10:07pm May 28, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} how low you think this baby is going to go?
Personally, after it broke parity I had 3 targets: .9665, .955 and .94 - 2 of three hit in last two weeks. My target get closer together as we go down as there is a greater change for a bounce.

I personally think Aussie was doomed when the carry trade died. It really was the only thing holding it up. Traders can get better returns in equities. HOWEVER, I have a growing suspicion that if equities tank this summer, Aussie will be revived with a carry trade again. Traders basically cycling for yield.

Short-term though, I previously posted .955 should produce a bounce to .98ish. The downward moves have been violent, but with every action is an equal, and opposite reaction. Nevertheless, I am still bearish.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #189
  • May 29, 2013 2:15pm May 29, 2013 2:15pm
took a long audjpy 97.13,

other than that, no trades this week, other than little scalp not worth mentioning


havent been at my computer all week..

iPad trading has been really good to me. doing other things while trading (instead of staring at the charts for 8 hours a day) has really helped me out


seriously i dont see any reason to look at the chart more than 4 times an hour (once every 15 minutes)

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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #190
  • May 29, 2013 2:17pm May 29, 2013 2:17pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Boom, got it again
Great trades.

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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #191
  • May 29, 2013 2:23pm May 29, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
took a long audjpy 97.13, other than that, no trades this week, other than little scalp not worth mentioning havent been at my computer all week.. iPad trading has been really good to me. doing other things while trading (instead of staring at the charts for 8 hours a day) has really helped me out seriously i dont see any reason to look at the chart more than 4 times an hour (once every 15 minutes) ------
Just caught this thread.

Likewise, I'm long AJ from the same area. Looking for it to get up to around 99.40 or so before it turns back down to form a new low.
  • #192
  • May 29, 2013 2:24pm May 29, 2013 2:24pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Personally, after it broke parity I had 3 targets: .9665, .955 and .94 - 2 of three hit in last two weeks. My target get closer together as we go down as there is a greater change for a bounce. I personally think Aussie was doomed when the carry trade died. It really was the only thing holding it up. Traders can get better returns in equities. HOWEVER, I have a growing suspicion that if equities tank this summer, Aussie will be revived with a carry trade again. Traders basically cycling for yield. Short-term though, I previously posted .955...

The carry will emerge again. Yields are still okay.



Just needs better levels to buy from.



I think Aussie will have a carry trade type turn around if we see 8200-8500


After all its almost like owning gold vs USD, except it gives a daily yield and gold does not.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #193
  • May 29, 2013 2:31pm May 29, 2013 2:31pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} The carry will emerge again. Yields are still okay. Just needs better levels to buy from. I think Aussie will have a carry trade type turn around if we see 8200-8500 After all its almost like owning gold vs USD, except it gives a daily yield and gold does not.
Seriously??
What yield, AUD 1 year swaps are at 227, thats nothing, little more than the 10Y US. Basically the yield aspect of this Pair is gone.

Doesn't mean it won't rally, but it won't be Yield behind it
  • #194
  • May 29, 2013 2:32pm May 29, 2013 2:32pm
Quoting thegunslinger
{quote} Just caught this thread. Likewise, I'm long AJ from the same area. Looking for it to get up to around 99.40 or so before it turns back down to form a new low.
Nice, welcome to the thread. Feel free to post anytime.


My target is around 98.80 but I'll definitely trail my stop.


June is upon us. Will it go immediately down, or will June see more bullish/consolidation and then finally in July this thing tanks?



Speculation
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #195
  • May 29, 2013 2:34pm May 29, 2013 2:34pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} Seriously??What yield, AUD 1 year swaps are at 227, thats nothing, little more than the 10Y US. Basically the yield aspect of this Pair is gone. Doesn't mean it won't rally, but it won't be Yield behind it

This is still the best MAJOR pair to own bar none.

It's just the most overvalued, there was no more room for carry. It needed a down wave badly. The RBA gave it to us.

What other major currency pair offers better yield?

AUDJPY is better but its not a major. Same with EURAUD.

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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #196
  • May 29, 2013 2:38pm May 29, 2013 2:38pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} This is still the best MAJOR pair to own bar none. It's just the most overvalued, there was no more room for carry. It needed a down wave badly. What other major currency pair offers better yield? AUDJPY is better but its not a major. Same with EURAUD. ------
You can't just think retail level here. you have to think ideas like ITUS spreads or ESUS spreads impacting the yield, or ITDE/US spreads. The hunt for yield in terms of depo rates is dead atm, think TRY, MXN, ZAR etc. etc.
  • #197
  • May 29, 2013 5:16pm May 29, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} You can't just think retail level here. you have to think ideas like ITUS spreads or ESUS spreads impacting the yield, or ITDE/US spreads. The hunt for yield in terms of depo rates is dead atm, think TRY, MXN, ZAR etc. etc.
of course i was excluding exotics


anyway carry trades will never give you much gain anyway unless its an exotic.


its just a bonus if you can find setups for them.


the real money is in price fluctuation of course.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #198
  • May 29, 2013 5:40pm May 29, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} of course i was excluding exotics anyway carry trades will never give you much gain anyway unless its an exotic. its just a bonus if you can find setups for them. the real money is in price fluctuation of course.
Fair enough if you exclude EM FX, and true that carry trade is dead and gone therefore "trading" is how to make money atm.

But there is no major today that has any dependence on carry, AUD swaps have contracted ~150bps in a couple of years and now 22 above NZD

R differentials do however matter but that is relatively exogenous from carry and more FI relative performance reflecting varying risks therefore affecting FX.
  • #199
  • May 29, 2013 7:29pm May 29, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} The carry will emerge again. Yields are still okay. Just needs better levels to buy from. I think Aussie will have a carry trade type turn around if we see 8200-8500 After all its almost like owning gold vs USD, except it gives a daily yield and gold does not.
I think it will reemerge once equities flop over. Right now there is no incentive to carry Aussie because their is better yielding assets right now. When that happens Aussie should pop hard, but untill then there is no point.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #200
  • May 29, 2013 9:25pm May 29, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
took a long audjpy 97.13, other than that, no trades this week, other than little scalp not worth mentioning havent been at my computer all week.. iPad trading has been really good to me. doing other things while trading (instead of staring at the charts for 8 hours a day) has really helped me out seriously i dont see any reason to look at the chart more than 4 times an hour (once every 15 minutes) ------
closed half for +70 pips 97.84

will reload it with TIGHT sl (bonus) if i see an opportunity.


this move is very inefficient, should fall back first before continuation.


80 pip countertrend move in 15 mins? weak liquidity, will see a wave down likely.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
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