What's the best way to close these winning trades? | Forex Factory

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What's the best way to close these winning trades?

  • #1
  • First Post: May 29, 2013 9:55am May 29, 2013 9:55am
Here's the situation with my cash account.

I've been selling the FTSE100 index which has been dropping with the S&P over the last few days.

I have several short positions taken over that time - about a dozen of them - as the price kept dropping. The trades are all at different prices and all in profit (I kept moving the stops to just above previous swing highs).

What would you recommend I do with them? Close some? Move some to BE? Move all the stops to the same point above the last swing high? Something else?

(I'm not asking for advice on where you think price is going, but on your opinion for the best way to manage those trades from here). Thanks.
  • #2
  • May 29, 2013 11:08am May 29, 2013 11:08am
There is no amazing technique to manage those trade in best outcome, because you do not know where the price is heading to. For this case, you may do scaling out some positions and move the stop as you said, to previous swing high.

One word, follow your plan and trade with your plan.
  • #3
  • May 29, 2013 11:15am May 29, 2013 11:15am
Darn! I was hoping a mathematical solution existed to make best use of the existing positions given the future unknowns.
  • #4
  • May 29, 2013 1:13pm May 29, 2013 1:13pm
Well, advanced mathematics can provide you an idea on how to mange trades and a few apps, do exist. But when it comes to it, you need to stay the course, track your trades and optimize for better ROI..
  • #5
  • May 29, 2013 4:21pm May 29, 2013 4:21pm
IMHO the decision process of where to exit a trade is much more difficult than with entries.
Rarely, if ever, will you manage to exit at the optimum point.

At the moment, you are sitting with unrealised profits, how painful would it be if price retraced and took out your existing stops?
If you believe it would be too painful and that you would be fuming because you would give back too much of your profits, then consider tightening your stops and/or exiting some of your positions.

But then again, if you tighten your stops and market retraces enough to hit them. and then sails off in your direction, how would you feel?
Will you be kicking yourself because you could have made so much more profit?

Maybe you could think about what you would do if you had no open positions at this time.
Would you be considering an entry? If not, than maybe it is time to exit your positions

In reality, there is no good answer to your question, because whatever you do, you are unlikely to exit with maximum possible profit.
The question is whether you are the type of trader that will dwell on "What could/should have been"
I used to be like that, even with a winning trade, I would focus too much on profits left on the table, Even with a winning trade, I would feel like a loser.
I believe that it is important to have a defined exit strategy before entering a trade and I no longer get annoyed because I have a plan and I stick to it.

The bottom line is that it is your account, your trades, your decision and your responsibility.
My response to your post is vague for a reason. If I give you advice and it doesn't work out well for you, then you have the opportunity to shift responsibility to me and I don't want that.
I just want you to have a few things to consider, but make your own decision.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #6
  • May 29, 2013 5:04pm May 29, 2013 5:04pm
I'm aware and comfortable with the fact that I won't exit at the optimum point. Whatever happens, I won't have recriminations. Where I make mistakes, I'll smile and add it to the cost of the tuition making sure I've learned something in the process. So, don't worry, I won't blame you.

As you say, it's an individual thing and in the absence of a firm plan for exits, the positions must be exited at prices the individual is comfortable represent the best return to him given his appetite for holding vs closing.

Let me ask you a different question: What is your plan for exits?

If you're working to a bot, you exit when you reach x pips or a fixed TP which is a multiple of the distance between the opening price and your stop or some other such pre-determined target. How do you go about determining exits when you're gotten to a stage where your analysis of price action is giving you great entry points (assume negligible pip risk) and the ability, if you want, to move to BE within a minute or two of opening the trade? One can sometimes work out the likely point at which price will turn. Sometimes it's less easy like with last week's drop in AUDUSD where it blasted through all resistances i.e. trying to estimate where price is going to turn is not a game for markets that are in a strong trend.
  • #7
  • May 29, 2013 6:03pm May 29, 2013 6:03pm
Quoting WideEyed
Here's the situation with my cash account. I've been selling the FTSE100 index which has been dropping with the S&P over the last few days. I have several short positions taken over that time - about a dozen of them - as the price kept dropping. The trades are all at different prices and all in profit (I kept moving the stops to just above previous swing highs). What would you recommend I do with them? Close some? Move some to BE? Move all the stops to the same point above the last swing high? Something else? (I'm not asking for advice on where...
A simple way to keep the positions and let them run in case the FTSE100 keeps moving lower. I anticipate it will probably do so, only if the ES fails the 1622 level on the downside.

Here is the method. Trace a Fibonacci retrace from highs to lows and cover all the adds that are below the 61.8% if price retraces into the entry point, keep all the positions above the 61.8% until price pierces the 61.8% level. When that happens close all.
Keep tracing the fibs as price moves lower, this way the 61.8% should also move lower.

Hope this helps.
Good luck.

PS: visit my blog to get more info on this technique.
Cheers

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #8
  • May 29, 2013 6:32pm May 29, 2013 6:32pm
>right click positions
>click "close position"
>????
>PROFIT!
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #9
  • May 29, 2013 8:18pm May 29, 2013 8:18pm
Quoting WideEyed
I'm aware and comfortable with the fact that I won't exit at the optimum point. Whatever happens, I won't have recriminations. Where I make mistakes, I'll smile and add it to the cost of the tuition making sure I've learned something in the process. So, don't worry, I won't blame you. As you say, it's an individual thing and in the absence of a firm plan for exits, the positions must be exited at prices the individual is comfortable represent the best return to him given his appetite for holding vs closing. Let me ask you a different question:...

Hi again

Quote
What is your plan for exits?

I have a few exit strategies, depending on the situation.
My main strategy is to set a SL at S/R when opening a trade without a TP
I will move SL to BE quite quickly if price appears to be stalling
As new likely S/R levels appear, I will move my stop to lock in profit (or limit potential loss if trade not yet in profit). Effectively a trailing stop.
Sometimes I will enter a trade, but if I know that I will not be able to monitor the trade properly, I will set a TP at a reasonable S/R level.
My way of trading will return a lot of small winners and losers, with the occasional one that gets in at the right time for a big move.
Mind you, in my trading recently the big movers (that I catch) are VERY occasional That means that I have only increased my account by about 4% total in the last 2 months. I'm quite happy with that though.
Please Do Not PM Me With Coding Enquiries
  • #10
  • May 29, 2013 8:32pm May 29, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting WideEyed
Here's the situation with my cash account. I've been selling the FTSE100 index which has been dropping with the S&P over the last few days. I have several short positions taken over that time - about a dozen of them - as the price kept dropping. The trades are all at different prices and all in profit (I kept moving the stops to just above previous swing highs). What would you recommend I do with them? Close some? Move some to BE? Move all the stops to the same point above the last swing high? Something else? (I'm not asking for advice on where...
Its very simple actually and you don't have to think too much. You are too stressed. Are you satisfied with your profits? if you are, then you close them all. The currency market is never ending. the next day, very soon, you will get your signal to trade again.
  • #11
  • May 29, 2013 9:20pm May 29, 2013 9:20pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
>right click positions>click "close position">????>PROFIT!
Best answer
  • #12
  • May 30, 2013 12:48am May 30, 2013 12:48am
Quoting PATR8der
{quote}Its very simple actually and you don't have to think too much. You are too stressed. Are you satisfied with your profits? if you are, then you close them all. The currency market is never ending. the next day, very soon, you will get your signal to trade again.
Good statement. That's why i suggest him to follow plan and trade with the plan. That is no best and worst solution to close trade, but if oneself discipline the game, this will be the best way for long term trading.
  • #13
  • May 30, 2013 1:40am May 30, 2013 1:40am
Determine if you are in a daily or weekly trend, draw a line, when the trend is violated, close everything.

And I forgot, when done, switch on the tv, have a beer and start fresh and happy the day after
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #14
  • May 30, 2013 2:21am May 30, 2013 2:21am
Quoting GnarlyPips
>right click positions>click "close position">????>PROFIT!

Very droll.

Also, not always smart.

Some of the best traders got where they are by learning how to close losers and ride winners, not by getting excited at the first hint of green. One of the reasons I'm profitable is because I know when to close losers and I am ruthless with closing them. Now I'm seeking to better learn how to ride winners from those who may have words of wisdom on the subject.

Quoting PART8der
Its very simple actually and you don't have to think too much. You are too stressed.
See my reply to GnarlyPips above. And, no, I'm not stressed. Or wasn't earlier. Jeez! And you may prefer to not think, but I suggest that when you're trading you should always keep your thinking hat on!

Gumrai, fibstalker, broketrader and others, thanks for your replies.
  • #15
  • Last Post: May 30, 2013 4:05pm May 30, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
>right click positions >click "close position" >???? >PROFIT!
That's the perfect answer..though the trick lies in realizing when to close a trade..
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