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NZD/USD

  • #2,081
  • May 28, 2013 10:41pm May 28, 2013 10:41pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Man I'm good!
i was following that call, doubting thomas i was.
amazing call on the aussi, very impressive!

fonterra increased milk price forecast from 5.80 to 7.00 time to go short on aud/nzd?
  • #2,082
  • May 28, 2013 10:49pm May 28, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting iNZane
{quote} i was following that call, doubting thomas i was. amazing call on the aussi, very impressive! fonterra increased milk price forecast from 5.80 to 7.00 time to go short on aud/nzd?
Lol I was just sticking to me guns. I'll have to check Aussie/Kiwi - can only remember trading it once. I'll have to check. How's that pair been treating ya?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #2,083
  • May 28, 2013 10:58pm May 28, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting iNZane
{quote} i was following that call, doubting thomas i was. amazing call on the aussi, very impressive! fonterra increased milk price forecast from 5.80 to 7.00 time to go short on aud/nzd?
Looks like AUDUSD a bit. It is a bit oversold with an exponential RSI of 6 lol I wouldn't short just yet. I would expect a bounce as it is sitting on the 61.8 Fib. If it cannot break I would expect a bounce to 1.935-69. If it does break I would target 1.75. Like I mentioned, I don't trade this but going of the chart I feel confident in those short-term outlooks.

If Chinese Manufacturing data misses, I would expect it to hit the bottom of the small channel around 1.7. Aussie should tank too. China's numbers are sketchy so they may have a big report.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #2,084
  • May 28, 2013 11:59pm May 28, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Looks like AUDUSD a bit. It is a bit oversold with an exponential RSI of 6 lol I wouldn't short just yet. I would expect a bounce as it is sitting on the 61.8 Fib. If it cannot break I would expect a bounce to 1.935-69. If it does break I would target 1.75. Like I mentioned, I don't trade this but going of the chart I feel confident in those short-term outlooks. If Chinese Manufacturing data misses, I would expect it to hit the bottom of the small channel around 1.7. Aussie should tank too. China's numbers are sketchy so they may have a...
already long on NZD/USD. down a few, but not serious.
i would tend to add longs on AUD/USD or NZD/USD given some signal, not ready to cut my losses and go short.
as for AUD/NZD: i don't think there's much trading in the pair, but it helps to look at as it depicts relative strength of these very related currencies. so for now i'm just sitting tight, hoping for that bounce...
  • #2,085
  • May 29, 2013 12:05am May 29, 2013 12:05am
Quoting iNZane
{quote}already long on NZD/USD. down a few, but not serious.i would tend to add longs on AUD/USD or NZD/USD given some signal, not ready to cut my losses and go short.as for AUD/NZD: i don't think there's much trading in the pair, but it helps to look at as it depicts relative strength of these very related currencies. so for now i'm just sitting tight, hoping for that bounce...
.850 has held for decent support. If breaks I'd cut lose. On the daily I can see .82 open, but intraday resistance around .8086 (20EMA) and .8122 (50 EMA). Decent returns depending on your cost basis.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #2,086
  • May 29, 2013 6:17am May 29, 2013 6:17am
Quoting iNZane
{quote}already long on NZD/USD. down a few, but not serious.i would tend to add longs on AUD/USD or NZD/USD given some signal, not ready to cut my losses and go short.as for AUD/NZD: i don't think there's much trading in the pair, but it helps to look at as it depicts relative strength of these very related currencies. so for now i'm just sitting tight, hoping for that bounce...

There is the bounce!!!!

The best things come to those who wait (and who feed their babies in the middle of the night and catch it)
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,087
  • May 29, 2013 7:25am May 29, 2013 7:25am
NZD/USD is stuck in a range for the past 9 days...something has to give soon!
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  • #2,088
  • May 29, 2013 8:30am May 29, 2013 8:30am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} .850 has held for decent support. If breaks I'd cut lose. On the daily I can see .82 open, but intraday resistance around .8086 (20EMA) and .8122 (50 EMA). Decent returns depending on your cost basis.

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #2,089
  • May 29, 2013 10:00am May 29, 2013 10:00am
Hello fellow traders,

In range we can make some $$ just like in trend.
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  • #2,090
  • May 29, 2013 11:33am May 29, 2013 11:33am
Quoting ladylike
Hello fellow traders, In range we can make some $$ just like in trend. {image}

excellent point and that has been my trading style as well as others.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,091
  • May 29, 2013 11:37am May 29, 2013 11:37am
I have closed few legs to add better legs at the bottom and shuffled my funds to increase short on UC
I believe May selling cycle is coming to an end and June could be corrective phase.
My orders still open.Why rush to close when I get paid to wait.
green pips everyone
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,092
  • May 29, 2013 11:41am May 29, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Davit
I have closed few legs to add better legs at the bottom and shuffled my funds to increase short on UCI believe May selling cycle is coming to an end and June could be corrective phase.My orders still open.Why rush to close when I get paid to wait.green pips everyone

Similar story brother, closed all out on NZD (overall a slight profit of 50pips) only have 4 open now on UCAD which im going to leave for at least 1.02

Im happy right now if it goes either way, up and I add more, down and I close them out and look for something new.

Well done for holding bro, it takes real strength of mind.
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,093
  • May 29, 2013 11:50am May 29, 2013 11:50am
Quoting inpatient
{quote} Similar story brother, closed all out on NZD (overall a slight profit of 50pips) only have 4 open now on UCAD which im going to leave for at least 1.02 Im happy right now if it goes either way, up and I add more, down and I close them out and look for something new. Well done for holding bro, it takes real strength of mind.

Steph I am glad you closed the Kiwi.I was concern about you.Since you were heavy long.
I reduce my lot sizes so I don't have to worry too much.
Its great that you can relax now.Regards bro.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,094
  • May 29, 2013 11:59am May 29, 2013 11:59am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Steph I am glad you closed the Kiwi.I was concern about you.Since you were heavy long.I reduce my lot sizes so I don't have to worry too much.Its great that you can relax now.Regards bro.

I can place 10 trades total at 1 lot each and yes I was close to my max which is never a fun feeling.

Feeling better now though with 6 available and will throw another 2 of them on Ucad if it climbs any further.

For sure more relaxed now
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,095
  • May 29, 2013 12:16pm May 29, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} I can place 10 trades total at 1 lot each and yes I was close to my max which is never a fun feeling. Feeling better now though with 6 available and will throw another 2 of them on Ucad if it climbs any further. For sure more relaxed now

Please reduce your 1 lots to .50 and you will have twice more opportunity and less stress.You can still easily hit 10% a month without worrying about margin call.Think of your account in terms of soldiers in reserve.You always want vast back up in case of surprise attack or new opportunities to attack another pair.
Military tactics is my favorite things to watch and learn.Trading is all pure war.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,096
  • Edited 5:15pm May 29, 2013 4:37pm | Edited 5:15pm
My view on this situation is:

Sill looking to the downside on the Kiwi. Market talked down (again), and interested in reviewing CNY PMI (NZ Saturday 1 pm) Building consents this morning (NZ need) to be offset with reality of constrained supply inn the housing market post GFC and the effects of the Christchurch earthquake. Whilst various Bank analyst have hinted at rate rises by mid next year, NZRB have reminded the market of the use of non-monetary leavers I.E. Bank collateral requirements as a means of 'cooling' property market - OCR to remain lower for longer!

However, income growth, inflation and weak China - where's all of this property bubble. I am not so sure that Fonterra's pay-out leads to economic growth - need to review further - but I think CNY situation is core driver. OMO support downside too - properly ineffective as a direct lever - but nonetheless rhetoric supports.

I think a round number (.80) and a leg down is evident. Might run a few specy's to the up side on short term charts, but 4 hours, daily and weekly reviewing confirmation of the down break below a neat .80.
  • #2,097
  • May 29, 2013 10:33pm May 29, 2013 10:33pm
Going to try pick this top EURNZD
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  • #2,098
  • May 30, 2013 12:39am May 30, 2013 12:39am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Looks like AUDUSD a bit. It is a bit oversold with an exponential RSI of 6 lol I wouldn't short just yet. I would expect a bounce as it is sitting on the 61.8 Fib. If it cannot break I would expect a bounce to 1.935-69. If it does break I would target 1.75. Like I mentioned, I don't trade this but going of the chart I feel confident in those short-term outlooks. If Chinese Manufacturing data misses, I would expect it to hit the bottom of the small channel around 1.7. Aussie should tank too. China's numbers are sketchy so they may have a...
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #2,099
  • May 31, 2013 5:22am May 31, 2013 5:22am
Double low on the Kiwi:
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  • #2,100
  • May 31, 2013 11:27am May 31, 2013 11:27am
Quoting Davit
I have closed few legs to add better legs at the bottom and shuffled my funds to increase short on UC I believe May selling cycle is coming to an end and June could be corrective phase. My orders still open.Why rush to close when I get paid to wait. green pips everyone
Totally agree with that Davit we have the same trading style !!

my order still open with -1980 pips for now but swap are positive and my account can handle nzd at 0.30 if needed.

trade end in green this is always a question of time.

Green pips to all and have a nice week-end.
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