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  • #31,061
  • May 28, 2013 7:12pm May 28, 2013 7:12pm
Quoting Peepo
{quote} hello, you gave me something to think about with your last two comments, so you did not buy before because price had lower highs and lower lows,, but now plan to buy in the retest. how you think that I can determine if it is good or you trade with breaks or bounces?
yes. if you watched the price action you would clearly see that sellers were in control and buyers were just staying a side. price was making lower lows and lower highs. bull did not defend the zone at all and came along couple of big sellers and pushed down the price very easily. if buyers are not defending the zone you never go long. indicators do not tell you these things, that is why i stay away from them to have a clear picture what is going on in the market and how people behaving just looking at the bars or candles.
if planning long make sure buyers react strongly at a specific level then watch smaller time frame how retest is done, at retest if you feel sellers running out of steam and not as strong as first time, get in and set very tight sl. as soon as in profit after about 10 pips set be.
i do not advise trading against prevailing energy unless you are experimenting smth or have very strong reasons.
As Above, So Below
  • #31,062
  • May 28, 2013 7:12pm May 28, 2013 7:12pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} it happened.now... {image}
I am watching this one to see what happens......
  • #31,063
  • May 28, 2013 7:22pm May 28, 2013 7:22pm
Earlier I made a comment that it appeared as if the bulls were being led to water. Well I was talking about the fake breakouts highlighted on the chart below in white triangle. Now there is some pressure building up on the shorts and at some point the trend may take a rest, but price has clearly been failing to take off to the upside - even after breaking through some resistances. So the market movers clearly don't seem to want Australian dollars. I would guess that price does retrace to retest what-is-now a resistance at ~9625, but the problem is how much are you willing to risk versus the predominant trend to be long? Then you have to ask, is it worth it?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au h1 5-29-13.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #31,064
  • May 28, 2013 7:24pm May 28, 2013 7:24pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} yes. if you watched the price action you would clearly see that sellers were in control and buyers were just staying a side. price was making lower lows and lower highs. bull did not defend the zone at all and came along couple of big sellers and pushed down the price very easily. if buyers are not defending the zone you never go long. indicators do not tell you these things, that is why i stay away from them to have a clear picture what is going on in the market and how people behaving just looking at the bars or candles.if planning long...
Wow. We pretty much said the same thing.
  • #31,065
  • May 28, 2013 7:25pm May 28, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} yes. if you watched the price action you would clearly see that sellers were in control and buyers were just staying a side. price was making lower lows and lower highs. bull did not defend the zone at all and came along couple of big sellers and pushed down the price very easily. if buyers are not defending the zone you never go long. indicators do not tell you these things, that is why i stay away from them to have a clear picture what is going on in the market and how people behaving just looking at the bars or candles.if planning long...

tahskent, I really appreciate your explanation, I was looking for long there in advance and I saw it bounce at that level, as seen in the graph, so, you think I should expect a more energetic reaction of buyers, like several bounce, before buying In this example, I just wait once.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_buy_fighting.png Size: 53 KB
  • #31,066
  • May 28, 2013 7:39pm May 28, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting Peepo
{quote} tahskent, I really appreciate your explanation, I was looking for long there in advance and I saw it bounce at that level, as seen in the graph, so, you think I should expect a more energetic reaction of buyers, like several bounce, before buying In this example, I just wait once. {image}
exactly. i do not know why you are trying to buy this... but i can tell you that: before going long make sure how bigger players react at that level, never enter at first drop, wait for retest and watch how traders react. if the reaction is convincing with good momentum this is a reason to go long. when you go long never bet all your money. if you have 1000 usd, use 100 usd first and keep adding more when you see higher high and higher lows. while trading against the bigger energy, be quick, get in and get out as soon as you see something that you do not like, if you get greedy and wait too long you will not even notice what struck you. that will happen suddenly and fast
As Above, So Below
  • #31,067
  • May 28, 2013 7:41pm May 28, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Wow. We pretty much said the same thing.
good analysis! we are on the same page on aussie
As Above, So Below
  • #31,068
  • May 28, 2013 7:43pm May 28, 2013 7:43pm
Quoting Peepo
{quote} tahskent, I really appreciate your explanation, I was looking for long there in advance and I saw it bounce at that level, as seen in the graph, so, you think I should expect a more energetic reaction of buyers, like several bounce, before buying In this example, I just wait once. {image}
you see what is happening right NOW?
we want higher high on lower TF or the next retest will be another breakout.
As Above, So Below
  • #31,069
  • May 28, 2013 8:04pm May 28, 2013 8:04pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} exactly. i do not know why you are trying to buy this... but i can tell you that: before going long make sure how bigger players react at that level, never enter at first drop, wait for retest and watch how traders react. if the reaction is convincing with good momentum this is a reason to go long. when you go long never bet all your money. if you have 1000 usd, use 100 usd first and keep adding more when you see higher high and higher lows. while trading against the bigger energy, be quick, get in and get out as soon as you see something...

great, undestood, wel I am just playing with small capital, playing 1 trade at time, but get the concept.
  • #31,070
  • May 28, 2013 8:12pm May 28, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting tashkent
{quote} you see what is happening right NOW?we want higher high on lower TF or the next retest will be another breakout.
I had this atm, I guess i need more watching screen to get use to this, as this is a new lvl in my trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #31,071
  • May 28, 2013 9:04pm May 28, 2013 9:04pm
I supposed EURAUD is in buying position, look at weekly, also yesterday closed bullish bounced from support and heading to make another 100 pips. Going long here
kiss the trend
  • #31,072
  • May 28, 2013 9:38pm May 28, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting fx-trader777
I supposed EURAUD is in buying position, look at weekly, also yesterday closed bullish bounced from support and heading to make another 100 pips. Going long here
Talking out loud is all I am doing.....don't trade this because of me, just taking notes...134.40 long , yes the week is long, the daily is nearing a top, the H4 has dropped , mixed...........

H1 is weakening....................IMO.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #31,073
  • May 28, 2013 9:51pm May 28, 2013 9:51pm
AU just went positive for the Day..............up 0.02 %
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #31,074
  • May 28, 2013 10:38pm May 28, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting forexalien
AU just went positive for the Day..............up 0.02 %
Grrr, i did well last night with the spike up. But today i placed 3 pending longs at 95850 95900 95940 the fall picked them up.
  • #31,075
  • May 28, 2013 11:34pm May 28, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} Grrr, i did well last night with the spike up. But today i placed 3 pending longs at 95850 95900 95940 the fall picked them up.
Are you under the water now?
daddybearforex. com
  • #31,076
  • May 28, 2013 11:46pm May 28, 2013 11:46pm
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} Grrr, i did well last night with the spike up. But today i placed 3 pending longs at 95850 95900 95940 the fall picked them up.
May 16th I said .9665 and .955 (hopefully .937) but no one wanted to hear me out lol. Hope your trades work out, but you shouldn't go against the trend. Just because it is overextended should not be a reason to go long. When I first started I got burned doing that. IMO your orders are waaaay to close together. You could have just traded the mean quote of those three. Place them at reliable support targets.

Let trades come to you. It would be more prudent to make 1,2, 3 high probability trades a month oppose to trying to catch every intraday jump
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #31,077
  • May 28, 2013 11:53pm May 28, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote}Are you under the water now?
Yep a little under water... ill probably close part of them off just to be safe.

Thanks for your tip Alien!
  • #31,078
  • May 29, 2013 12:08am May 29, 2013 12:08am
Quoting Arman_A
{quote} Yep a little under water... ill probably close part of them off just to be safe. Thanks for your tip Alien!
When EJ moves down, AU moves up [Not always]. May be these two pairs can be traded at the same time to hedge each other.
daddybearforex. com
  • #31,079
  • May 29, 2013 12:14am May 29, 2013 12:14am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} May 16th I said .9665 and .955 (hopefully .937) but no one wanted to hear me out lol. Hope your trades work out, but you shouldn't go against the trend. Just because it is overextended should not be a reason to go long. When I first started I got burned doing that. IMO your orders are waaaay to close together. You could have just traded the mean quote of those three. Place them at reliable support targets. Let trades come to you. It would be more prudent to make 1,2, 3 high probability trades a month oppose to trying to catch every intraday...
any tips on to with the eb and flows in your account with only a few trades a month

i would imagine at times you could be in the red while waiting for the longer trend to be in your favour. i can imagine this would kill me!
  • #31,080
  • May 29, 2013 12:25am May 29, 2013 12:25am
Quoting flash4
{quote} any tips on to with the eb and flows in your account with only a few trades a month i would imagine at times you could be in the red while waiting for the longer trend to be in your favour. i can imagine this would kill me!
You have to trade according to your account size wise. For instance, I'll find a trade and trigger an order. Before I place the order I already have picked out my overall size, SL and targets. Generally I will have 2 SL and 3 targets. I may trade a lot, but break it up in quarters. The markets move and you can't change that, but you can manage it.

Check out my posts on Aussie. May 16th I picked out my targets. 400+ pips lower since those calls. Trying to trade it intraday would be mind numbing

I been bearish the EURUSD for months. While everyone was trying to play short squeezes and news blurbs I was playing the trend. I had a plan and I stuck to it. If you sold the rallies since Feb you'd be making out pretty good right now.

I think an issue with traders is they are afraid of red. As long as it is managed, you'll be fine. You will never always stay in the green. We have to learn to accept this in order to prosper.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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