Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade
- #4,222
- May 23, 2013 7:45pm May 23, 2013 7:45pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
{quote}Hi CNTraderOn further revision of my chart I see that there was no confluence at point 'D' of the 88% of XA and the 161 fib of AB.Hence a PRZ was not formed.Is this the non validation point of the Bat pattern that you saw? ThanksJ
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
- #4,223
- May 24, 2013 8:54am May 24, 2013 8:54am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
FOREXXXXXX! I hate being wrong even when I'm right! Wrong basis, correct trade (one for today). Probably because I'm not yet consistent with my real time analysis! Wrong take profit and entry point , but pips are pips ! yummmy!
- #4,224
- May 24, 2013 10:14am May 24, 2013 10:14am
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Currently rolling stops on a short that just hit mt T1 but here is a look at a 15m chart of Eur/Gbp for a few potential pips to capture if the behavior presents itself.
Enjoy, have fun, make a great day, do your Due diligence, trade your plan, and may we all make bank
Enjoy, have fun, make a great day, do your Due diligence, trade your plan, and may we all make bank
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
- #4,225
- May 24, 2013 12:12pm May 24, 2013 12:12pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
Mr pip,
How would you describe the long term order flow at the yellow arrow, in terms of NSH, etc? Would the predicted long term order flow have been down?
How would you describe the long term order flow at the yellow arrow, in terms of NSH, etc? Would the predicted long term order flow have been down?
- #4,226
- May 24, 2013 1:12pm May 24, 2013 1:12pm
- Joined Jul 2012 | Status: "Winners knowl"!! | 2,171 Posts
Currently rolling stops on a short that just hit mt T1 but here is a look at a 15m chart of Eur/Gbp for a few potential pips to capture if the behavior presents itself. {image} Enjoy, have fun, make a great day, do your Due diligence, trade your plan, and may we all make bank
Enjoy, have fun, make a great day, do your Due diligence, trade your plan, and may we all make bank
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
- #4,227
- May 24, 2013 2:32pm May 24, 2013 2:32pm
Currently rolling stops on a short that just hit mt T1 but here is a look at a 15m chart of Eur/Gbp for a few potential pips to capture if the behavior presents itself. {image} Enjoy, have fun, make a great day, do your Due diligence, trade your plan, and may we all make bank
You are having way too much fun with your trading my friend
I am long term short here also, We are thinking too much alike Ruin is a foot 
Have a great memorial weekend , and please be safe. see you ALL next Week for trading
Take Care
Always Learning
- #4,228
- May 24, 2013 3:11pm May 24, 2013 3:11pm
{quote} That's a very good observation to start with. Now try redrawing it the correct way. When you do post it then study it and price behavior. Thats all for now but go ahead and start with that and maybe i'll discuss more if I'm in a giving mood. lol
Below is the chart I have redrawn, showing 2 points where the Bat pattern failed. in Mr Pips template, the 88% and 161 Fib are much closer together for a valid pattern....is this always the case?
Also attached a zoom out of same chart showing perhaps an aggressive C buy was ripe for the picking.
Cheers J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
{quote} Hey Traders here is an update on Eur/Aud 15m chart. Mislabeled in previous post as eur/gbp. Sorry bout that. My previous short hit T1 and remaining was taken out BE. Have reentered at the Gartley. Have a fantastic weekend and for those in the USA enjoy the holiday time with familia and friends
I'm seeing a possible further short, we'll see how it pans out.
- #4,233
- May 26, 2013 1:09pm May 26, 2013 1:09pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
I've begun to realize that there is a correspondence to my concept of flow lines, fibonacci, and confluence.
Flow is defined as the relation between highs, lows, and swings. Fibonacci circles are used and the only percents used is 100%, 61.8%, and 161.8% (always!).
Using flow lines is like using fibonacii extensions and retracements: except, it uses diagonal lines (produced objectively using a technique) and Fibonacci circles [aka fibonaci extensions/retracements] to relate the placement of diagonal flow lines (of the same slope, and even different slope) together.
The motto for me when using this technique is "The flow must continue. There is no exception." Translated, this means
(a) The same slope of flow lines will continue to be valid throughout the market session. Flow lines relate transition areas together.
(b) The placement of the flow lines will be related via fibonacci circles (diagonal fibonacci extensions/retracements). The resulting placement of the flow lines will highlight important relations between transition areas (which can be stalling, sudden high volume candles which represent breaking of a support line which the flow line can act as, ...) . Basically, the result will be an offset in flow lines to various swings, using a rule-based manner.
The ideal is that price will go down the path of least resistance; there will never be a sudden transition in flow. Therefore, the concept of 'flow' and the motto "the flow must continue. there is no exception" is an outline of the ideal that price will always go down the path of least resistance, and that price will hint at before hand what it wants to do.
An important trader's corollary of this motto is that, before a swing even begins (every swing), its endpoint and certain characteristics should already be known. In other words, trading from swing to swing.
A simple example of these diagonal Fibonacci extensions/flow lines.
First, a downward slope and upward slope line ('flow line') are produced. Different slopes can be produced, but the one which fits best should be used. Actually, its interesting, but Im farely sure that it doesnt matter which of the possible flow lines is used, because if the slope changes, the initial placement changes because the slope will highlight different relations between the different transition areas (best).
Next, I show how an upward flow line which doesnt fit the price very well (but it does highlight a very local gap in price at a transition area), can be related to a downward flow line which does fit price, by using the 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci circle radius. Notice that if we got it into our head that we needed to place a downward flow line around this area, we could have WITHOUT using the upward flow line; instead we use our experience with flow lines highlighting relations between price. Therefore, we have verification/confluence!
Finally, we use a Fibonacci circle and the 161.8 radius to project the endpoint flow lines. Then, a diagonal line is reflected off the flow line where price is currently at and the intersection of it with the 161.8 flow lines produces a PRZ. Neat how price structure fits together huh!
Now, this is also the 161.8 horizontal fibonacci extension from low to high, but remember we only use the 100%, 61.8%, and 161.8% Fibonacci circle radius, so thats a coincidence in general..... the technique isnt redundant....
Flow is defined as the relation between highs, lows, and swings. Fibonacci circles are used and the only percents used is 100%, 61.8%, and 161.8% (always!).
Using flow lines is like using fibonacii extensions and retracements: except, it uses diagonal lines (produced objectively using a technique) and Fibonacci circles [aka fibonaci extensions/retracements] to relate the placement of diagonal flow lines (of the same slope, and even different slope) together.
The motto for me when using this technique is "The flow must continue. There is no exception." Translated, this means
(a) The same slope of flow lines will continue to be valid throughout the market session. Flow lines relate transition areas together.
(b) The placement of the flow lines will be related via fibonacci circles (diagonal fibonacci extensions/retracements). The resulting placement of the flow lines will highlight important relations between transition areas (which can be stalling, sudden high volume candles which represent breaking of a support line which the flow line can act as, ...) . Basically, the result will be an offset in flow lines to various swings, using a rule-based manner.
The ideal is that price will go down the path of least resistance; there will never be a sudden transition in flow. Therefore, the concept of 'flow' and the motto "the flow must continue. there is no exception" is an outline of the ideal that price will always go down the path of least resistance, and that price will hint at before hand what it wants to do.
An important trader's corollary of this motto is that, before a swing even begins (every swing), its endpoint and certain characteristics should already be known. In other words, trading from swing to swing.
A simple example of these diagonal Fibonacci extensions/flow lines.
First, a downward slope and upward slope line ('flow line') are produced. Different slopes can be produced, but the one which fits best should be used. Actually, its interesting, but Im farely sure that it doesnt matter which of the possible flow lines is used, because if the slope changes, the initial placement changes because the slope will highlight different relations between the different transition areas (best).
Next, I show how an upward flow line which doesnt fit the price very well (but it does highlight a very local gap in price at a transition area), can be related to a downward flow line which does fit price, by using the 100% and 161.8% Fibonacci circle radius. Notice that if we got it into our head that we needed to place a downward flow line around this area, we could have WITHOUT using the upward flow line; instead we use our experience with flow lines highlighting relations between price. Therefore, we have verification/confluence!
Finally, we use a Fibonacci circle and the 161.8 radius to project the endpoint flow lines. Then, a diagonal line is reflected off the flow line where price is currently at and the intersection of it with the 161.8 flow lines produces a PRZ. Neat how price structure fits together huh!
Now, this is also the 161.8 horizontal fibonacci extension from low to high, but remember we only use the 100%, 61.8%, and 161.8% Fibonacci circle radius, so thats a coincidence in general..... the technique isnt redundant....
- #4,234
- May 26, 2013 6:05pm May 26, 2013 6:05pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
i predicted slw will reach its first target at $30.59 on my birthday, 6/30! Lol
- #4,236
- May 27, 2013 4:04pm May 27, 2013 4:04pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
Hi there, New time trader here, I just wanted to know what would one do when presented with loads of what look like conflicting signals. This is a chart of the EUR/JPY 15M. Are there some patterns that are more valid than others i.e. does a gartley pattern have a greater probability of success than a bat or a butterfly patter? ps. I didn't post the fib levels because I eventually got confused but i sure these patterns fit within the rules mention at the beginning of the thread. {image}
edit: woops i was wrong, yeah someone else comment
- #4,237
- May 27, 2013 4:52pm May 27, 2013 4:52pm
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,204 Posts
Hi there, New time trader here, I just wanted to know what would one do when presented with loads of what look like conflicting signals. This is a chart of the EUR/JPY 15M. Are there some patterns that are more valid than others i.e. does a gartley pattern have a greater probability of success than a bat or a butterfly patter? ps. I didn't post the fib levels because I eventually got confused but i sure these patterns fit within the rules mention at the beginning of the thread. {image}
Low volume day... Anyways this is what i meant by drawing those diagonal lines (except i tried to do it in my mind in the previous post). This is only ratios in the sense that i use the fibonacci circle to relate the placement of the diagonal lines. First picture is where i produced each diagonal line and the second is the placement to form a wedge and an intersection point....
So it looks like your blue one was a winner! Maybe someone like CNTrader could comment on how he would go about picking which one to trade...
Practice and asking questions makes you more consistent, keep it up!
