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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,941
  • May 19, 2013 4:34pm May 19, 2013 4:34pm
I have used the chart below to help with my bias. The green line is the CFTC non-com shorts, and the red is the non-com longs. Clearly you don't want to be short when the green line is elevated... as it is right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Aussie May.png Size: 66 KB
  • #5,942
  • May 19, 2013 4:41pm May 19, 2013 4:41pm
USD/JPY is coming off the top of it's channel quite nicely too. That would support my view of the Aussie Dollar rising from here. (I know that is perverse but it's too hard to explain here just trust me hehe)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YenMay.png Size: 52 KB
  • #5,943
  • May 19, 2013 4:42pm May 19, 2013 4:42pm
Damn! correction to my Aussie chart, Red line is the shorts!!! Green line is the longs... apologies for any confusion.
  • #5,944
  • Edited 5:27am May 20, 2013 5:13am | Edited 5:27am
Is this an H&S that the EU is forming on the Weekly, if it is than the 21 - 20 support zone will be compromised after the break of the neckline.

Regards,
B.R.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_W1.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU_D1.png Size: 56 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,945
  • May 20, 2013 7:33am May 20, 2013 7:33am
Quoting Hyperion
I have used the chart below to help with my bias. The green line is the CFTC non-com shorts, and the red is the non-com longs. Clearly you don't want to be short when the green line is elevated... as it is right now. {image}
Very nice chart Hyperion. what do you use for your COT chart?
  • #5,946
  • May 20, 2013 7:36am May 20, 2013 7:36am
possicle move for gold:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdh4_37.png Size: 37 KB
  • #5,947
  • May 20, 2013 7:39am May 20, 2013 7:39am
Quoting bassramy
Is this an H&S that the EU is forming on the Weekly, if it is than the 21 - 20 support zone will be compromised after the break of the neckline. Regards, B.R. {image} {image}
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
  • #5,948
  • May 20, 2013 7:48am May 20, 2013 7:48am
Quoting Hyperion
USD/JPY is coming off the top of it's channel quite nicely too. That would support my view of the Aussie Dollar rising from here. (I know that is perverse but it's too hard to explain here just trust me hehe) {image}
Yea, I shorted UJ as well. 4H chart shows a three drive pattern. and COT shows a bearish divergence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 17 KB
Attached Images
  • #5,949
  • May 20, 2013 9:12am May 20, 2013 9:12am
UCHF Daily Channel, to short or not to short, that is the Question.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF_D1.png Size: 59 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,950
  • May 20, 2013 3:46pm May 20, 2013 3:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Very nice chart Hyperion. what do you use for your COT chart?
I use Reuters. I pick out the break down of longs and shorts by category from the CFTC. I know it's a small snapshot of the FX universe but I think it's safe to assume the biasa there is a mirror of the wider FX comunity. I also watch the Tokyo Futures Exchange who provide heaps of commitment info on their website show the consensus of all the "Mrs Watenabe's".
  • #5,951
  • May 20, 2013 4:39pm May 20, 2013 4:39pm
Hey guys which is the best timeframe to follow the COT trend?
  • #5,952
  • May 20, 2013 5:10pm May 20, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting Amadeus8
Hey guys which is the best timeframe to follow the COT trend?
Each to their own but I generally use it on a daily chart. I only take notice at extremes in sentiment as above. That tells me whether I should still be with the crowd or to leave the party early and even fade it.
  • #5,953
  • May 20, 2013 10:15pm May 20, 2013 10:15pm
Thanks hypherion....I am going to keep waiting for short setups in the EURSUSD since large commercials are only 65% net short. What do you think about that?
  • #5,954
  • May 21, 2013 1:11am May 21, 2013 1:11am
"Count Dough, Lick Wound" threshold..
Attached Image


Euro COT @20130514
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130514-4 years.png Size: 125 KB
  • #5,955
  • May 21, 2013 12:48pm May 21, 2013 12:48pm
I'm looking to take a long... I want it to touch 1.51 and bounce up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,956
  • May 21, 2013 7:53pm May 21, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting Amadeus8
Thanks hypherion....I am going to keep waiting for short setups in the EURSUSD since large commercials are only 65% net short. What do you think about that?
Hi Amadeus, don't worry about what I think but as you asked - My only observation about your question is, whether you buy or sell, I hope you use more inputs for your desision than just the fact that the commercials are 65% net short. For me, that number is in the middle. Like I say I persoanlly can only find value in these numbers when they are at an extreme, extreme position on or extreme no position. Cheers.
  • #5,957
  • May 23, 2013 7:08am May 23, 2013 7:08am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yea, I shorted UJ as well. 4H chart shows a three drive pattern. and COT shows a bearish divergence. {image} {image} {image}
I got stopped out and re-entered the short position at UJ. It finally worked out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 2.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #5,958
  • May 23, 2013 7:27am May 23, 2013 7:27am
It seems that the equity market has developed a significant top (attached: E-mini S&P500 future).
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  • #5,959
  • May 24, 2013 3:53am May 24, 2013 3:53am
Something interesting i posted on another thread.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #5,960
  • May 24, 2013 4:43am May 24, 2013 4:43am
Quoting bassramy
Something interesting i posted on another thread.

I'll stay aside, too. I'm happy with having got UJ&EJ shorts, and that is it for this week.
Have a great weekend guys
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