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  • #24,361
  • May 23, 2013 1:15pm May 23, 2013 1:15pm
EU Pending Short

Late in the day but I decided to set a pending short below that 1hr ND into the 50% level. Entry would be 2930, SL would be either 2940 at the top of the ND since it's late and to keep target close or perhaps at 2955 at the days high... that I have not decided yet. Will decide if and when I get triggered. Right now price is drifting back up above the 50% so we will see. Draghi in 75 minutes...
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,362
  • Edited 2:27pm May 23, 2013 1:25pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} Wouldn't worry about posting to the minute updates mate, can always wait until you're home to do that! {quote} Ok, i'll post something. I spent today looking at EUR/JPY for the most part, it looked the most promising from a PnF perspective with the potential for a triple top break. This eventually came to pass and it went 60pips from the entry and before there was a decent reversal. I suffered from some indecision and ultimately decided not to take the trade. We'll forget about the PnF side of things as it was the 1hr HLC that made my mind...
I am a bit confused you talk about triple top breakout but we are below yesterdays high by quite a bit come LO today. Can you post a PnF chart also so I can compare and see what you were looking at real time. Yes that sell off in EJ started on that 1hr UT yesterday and continued hard through Asia with LO bringing in some support and eventual buying (and profit taking) before pushing price back up over 200 points from the days low which printed during the second 1hr bar after LO (counting LO as the first).

Lovely how the round numbers play key roles as well. Low was right into 130. We have moved back up and are finding some resistance right now at 132. There was some struggle to push back up through 131.

On the way down we found pause and support at the end of day yesterday right at 132 and a little support even into LO at 131 before the last push down. Cool stuff.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,363
  • May 23, 2013 1:46pm May 23, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} I am a bit confused you talk about triple top breakout but we are below yesterdays high by quite a bit come LO today. Can you post a PnF chart also so I can compare and see what you were looking at real time. Yes that sell off in EJ started on that 1hr UT yesterday and continued hard through Asia with LO bringing in some support and eventual buying (and profit taking) before pushing price back up over 200 points for the days low which printed during the second 1hr bar after LO (counting LO as the first. Lovely how the round numbers play...
I was trying not to confuse things by posting a PnF chart

Anyway, two charts attached below, zoomed out showing the origin of the lower zone and zoomed in showing the triple top buy signal i'm talking about.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,364
  • May 23, 2013 2:07pm May 23, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting pres78
{quote}GU looks a tad different with price coming down to 50% on NSP but remains above so I will hold this one at BE for a bit longer.
Decided to close GU as well as we are still drifiting down to that 50% level. Will evalute daily TF trades tonight and intraday stuff again tommorow.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,365
  • May 23, 2013 4:20pm May 23, 2013 4:20pm
Interesting Daily charts accross the board...

Possible SO's formed on EJ, GJ, UJ (not as obvious), AJ, ES and Oil and these are just ones I looked at

Effort to rise / squat formed on GU

Not sure what to make of EU... higher volume (highest in quite some time), lower low, close towards but still off the high... seems like effort to rise that was sold inot but the spread was not narrow by any means.

Looks like we could be signalled for some continued US strength and Yen weakness and EURO confusion tommorow and into next week... Or SM will absorb the buyers picked up on the SO bars and absorb for lower prices. Right now I am leaning towards the first but time will tell. Checking for some higher TF trades and setting my fib zones for my intraday trades tommorow.

ES was massive volume, I mean crazy UHV... EJ and ES were similar patterns with UT yesterday and SO today... interesting.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,366
  • May 23, 2013 6:25pm May 23, 2013 6:25pm
EJ Long...

Daily zone in white from today's UHV. Set a pending long at the high of the last 4hr bar which was a hidden test. Entry 132, SL 131.40 (50%) and TP1 at 132.85 (H) for 1.4:1 R:R. Banking on today being a SO based on how the daily chart looks. The only fly in the oinment is;

11:55pm-JPY-BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks

See what effect he has on the Yen crosses. Will moitor until I head to bed in a couple hours.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej4hr.gif Size: 32 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,367
  • May 23, 2013 7:47pm May 23, 2013 7:47pm
Quoting pres78
EU Pending Short Late in the day but I decided to set a pending short below that 1hr ND into the 50% level. Entry would be 2930, SL would be either 2940 at the top of the ND since it's late and to keep target close or perhaps at 2955 at the days high... that I have not decided yet. Will decide if and when I get triggered. Right now price is drifting back up above the 50% so we will see. Draghi in 75 minutes...
So this trade triggered during the Draghi fireworks ... Whew it was wild action.

Trade just hit 1:1 at 2905 as I decided on a SL at 2955. Now at BE which may be hit soon as we bounced from 2900ish which coincidentally is today's 1hr zone high (whitefib). Blue fib is that bar from Wednesday.

Just for fun I threw on the magenta line which is the high of 2 high volume bars over the last week... Look at where price paused for a bit on the way up today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 31 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,368
  • Edited 8:28pm May 23, 2013 8:09pm | Edited 8:28pm
GU pending short

30 min ND into 50% hourly level from Wednesday. Entry would be 5080, SL 5095 target 1 at 5050 for 2:1.

Don't normally trade much other than Yen and Aussie pairs during Asia but if a set-up looks good why not set a pending. Let's see if this triggers before bed.

Edit - Part 1 will move to BE at 1:1 and close at 2:1 (or SL), Part 2 will move to BE at 1:1 and remain until I adjust or SL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 27 KB
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,369
  • May 23, 2013 9:52pm May 23, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting Jasus
{quote} Thanks for the reply. I didn't understand why it moves up with low volume though, how does that relate with the heavy supply that there was before? If it moves up with low volume it either means SM is not interested or that there isn't much resistance to the movement right? So in stocks you should be able to see accumulation in the monthly (or 2-month or 3-month timeframe) timeframe? It makes sense because as you say the accumulation is slower there, I'll check some stock charts... By the way, any idea why the accumulation in stocks is usually...
Yup, the biggest thing to remember is if price is rising after accumulation on low volume not to worry, but if you see a major SOW and price rising on low volume then it is time to look for an exit strategy.

But back to your original post of low volume accumulation/distribution areas, to me it doesn't make sense, from the above statement price will rise on low volume after accumulation and will continue to rise until the market is hit with stopping volume. The main thing, which is a hard thing to do, is not call tops/bottoms (accumulation/distribution). You will seeing stopping volume that knocks the market sideways, the market could just as easily absorb the supply, best to wait out these consolidation areas. Today on EU was a perfect example, supply hit EU in US but EU absorbed it and pushed through. Once price pushed through the consolidation area it usually goes and tests that area again (green bar) one last time before a up move.

My best guess on why accumulation/distribution periods are slower on stocks is that I think there are more players. When a stock is being accumulated there is more than just buying. Professionals are buying then test for supply, if they find supply then they must buy more and test again for supply, rinse and repeat till all of the supply is removed.

I think trading stocks off a daily/weekly time frame is a lot easier than forex if you stick to heavily traded stocks. I have a retirement account to which I can only trade stocks on it, lately GE has been my bread and butter for it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,370
  • May 23, 2013 9:55pm May 23, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting pres78
EU Hourly Last bar closed as a hidden test. Pending long set at 2891 looking for that 50% level from yesterday's 1hr zone. Don't like going long below 2900 (or at least this close to it) but the lower level is holding and supply seems gone so...
Very nice trade, simple and VSA at its finest.
  • #24,371
  • May 23, 2013 10:06pm May 23, 2013 10:06pm
US dollar isn't looking so hot for today, first chart.

Second chart EU daily.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,372
  • May 23, 2013 11:18pm May 23, 2013 11:18pm
there are so many different version of VSA, which one is the most official one? does anyone know?
  • #24,373
  • May 23, 2013 11:56pm May 23, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting sweetkiwi
there are so many different version of VSA, which one is the most official one? does anyone know?
http://vsa.pipbuilders.com/mtmv3.pdf
  • #24,374
  • May 24, 2013 1:46am May 24, 2013 1:46am
Hi all,
AUDUSD did more than twice its average daily volume yesterday and closed as a bullish pinbar. This pair has been trending downwards for quite some time and I think the bullish pinbar is a warning of a probable pullback to the upside which should not be ignored.
0.9695 is a support on daily time frame and 0.9612 could hold as a probable support for today.
Let's keep an eye on this pair.
Happy trading!
  • #24,375
  • May 24, 2013 1:55am May 24, 2013 1:55am
Maybe an interesting day for JPY pairs!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.png Size: 31 KB
  • #24,376
  • May 24, 2013 3:10am May 24, 2013 3:10am
Quoting SimpleDev
US dollar isn't looking so hot for today, first chart. Second chart EU daily. {image} {image}
Ugg..

I set an order at 2932.. by the time I hit send price was already at .2938.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #24,377
  • May 24, 2013 4:17am May 24, 2013 4:17am
Quoting pres78
{quote} So this trade triggered during the Draghi fireworks ... Whew it was wild action. Trade just hit 1:1 at 2905 as I decided on a SL at 2955. Now at BE which may be hit soon as we bounced from 2900ish which coincidentally is today's 1hr zone high (whitefib). Blue fib is that bar from Wednesday. Just for fun I threw on the magenta line which is the high of 2 high volume bars over the last week... Look at where price paused for a bit on the way up today. {image}
Second part stopped at BE. Didn't see any long entry I liked so I am flat on EU.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,378
  • May 24, 2013 4:19am May 24, 2013 4:19am
Quoting pres78
GU pending short 30 min ND into 50% hourly level from Wednesday. Entry would be 5080, SL 5095 target 1 at 5050 for 2:1. Don't normally trade much other than Yen and Aussie pairs during Asia but if a set-up looks good why not set a pending. Let's see if this triggers before bed. Edit - Part 1 will move to BE at 1:1 and close at 2:1 (or SL), Part 2 will move to BE at 1:1 and remain until I adjust or SL. {image}
Well this worked like a charm. Trade moved down 19 pips from my entry moving both parts to BE which is where they both died. Currently flat on GU.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,379
  • May 24, 2013 4:24am May 24, 2013 4:24am
Quoting pres78
EJ Long... Daily zone in white from today's UHV. Set a pending long at the high of the last 4hr bar which was a hidden test. Entry 132, SL 131.40 (50%) and TP1 at 132.85 (H) for 1.4:1 R:R. Banking on today being a SO based on how the daily chart looks. The only fly in the oinment is; 11:55pm-JPY-BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks See what effect he has on the Yen crosses. Will moitor until I head to bed in a couple hours. {image}
Closed first trade for 25 at bedtime, moved second part to BE which is where it was taken out. Flat on EJ.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #24,380
  • May 24, 2013 6:42am May 24, 2013 6:42am
Quoting SimpleDev
{quote} Yup, the biggest thing to remember is if price is rising after accumulation on low volume not to worry, but if you see a major SOW and price rising on low volume then it is time to look for an exit strategy. But back to your original post of low volume accumulation/distribution areas, to me it doesn't make sense, from the above statement price will rise on low volume after accumulation and will continue to rise until the market is hit with stopping volume. The main thing, which is a hard thing to do, is not call tops/bottoms (accumulation/distribution)....
I get that, but there are some strange things that I see sometimes that I don't get, like a heavily traded asset going to a bull market without any visible accumulation before, and after a bear market. I'll post some chart examples when I get home.

Forex in daily/weeky is treating me well so far (no time to day-trade now), there are some very nice moves. I'm looking into stocks now as well, but the problem I have there is how to choose between so many stocks... Do you have any filter in a scanner or something to find good potential stocks easily?
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