Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

I agree the wedge is formed and clear to see now. I still dont like trading the jpy pairs to the short side...Will the powers that be allow jpy to strenghten?

Olu

Sold Eur/USD, hopefully your H&S idea will work out.

pre-empting the neckline break are we?

Olu

Hi Olu, Watching the Aussie pairs on Weekly TFs for anticipated Swings. RSIs are approaching extremes where turns have occurred in the past. AG

Hi AlginaDrande

We have similar ideas I believe the commodity currencies have been 'over-crushed' lately and are due a significant bounce. I am still bearish them though as I am commodity bearish long term. Financial disaster is also lurking for the gbp and the euro...

Great charts

Olu

Cotton

Soybean Meal

NzdCad

Olu,

I thought I would post here if you don't mind

I just had a look at the chart and it's an impressive reversal pin that's for sure. I can understand why shorts would be considered. However, as for a new low I'm not sure yet. Personally I am leaving it alone (which probably means it will tank ) I actually favour an alternative bias......

I have been bullish the complex for a little while now (but not long, there is a difference). The Daily price structure looks bullish i.e. HH and HL. I see the clearing of 430 (by measure of a Daily close) more significant that the rejection of 450. The 430 level looks to have been a bit of a key level in the past hence why I like its significance more. What I see unfolding now in the complex is a classic COT Reversal Profile. As you know the COT report forms my sole fundamental analysis. When I look at the makeup of the positions in the market and they way they are trending this guides me to what type of move is being played out in the market. From looking at the positions you can get some idea as to whether price moves are profit taking related or if it's the start of a new trend emerging.

My analysis tells me that the recent moves up have been part of a new trend developing rather than just profit taking in a downtrend. I say that because the Funds (Specs or Non Commercials....basically the trend followers) have not only been reducing their short positions but have been increasing their longs at the same time. If it was a profit taking move then their shorts would decrease but there longs would stay about the same or even decrease as well. If you have a look at the attachment you will see what I am getting at.

So this leads me to think that this pin will probably yield for sure BUT I feel it's the start of a pullback in a new uptrend rather than a continuation of the downtrend so it may be shorter lived. This is a bit like the Short I took on Soybeans on April 30. Good for a quick move but not a sustained one. This pin however is much larger so the reaction could be proportionally larger too.

This is all very theoretical and I could well be wrong (it wouldn't be the first time) but for me I would be looking to buy rejection of support at say 430, 420 or 400. If we go below 400 then the bullish bias is off the table.

Just my thoughts for what it's worth.....good trading to all.

Thanks MPB for your input. I did put in a sell order but it the fish did not bite. I will wait a bit more. I am in shorting mode on commodities because of the the general crb index that is consistently tracking lower. It signals deflation imho.
By the way thanks for you excellent post. I appreciate any post that will help me or the readers of this thread to be better traders

Dollar Index

GbpUsd

Orange Juice

Cotton

Yen Futures

Soybean Meal

Hi Olu, I believe the $ will keep in the retrace mood and might very well pull back deeper. If you look a the USDJPY you see it weekly closed at an important weekly level with an OK solid bear candle, that push me to think it will further retrace to the lower channel support (recent bull trend). Another hint is that the Euro USD H&S is resisting to break and the GBPUSD, as you mentioned, is in the retrace move which might go further up even to test your 68% Fib and forming a 123 swing. I am still bearish with you on GBP and EUR but waiting for the retrace to finish to confirm that bears ressume control. Sorry no charts as I am at work. Have a great week.

Thanks for your post Rehab. I agree with you. This retracement might be deeper but the overall trend is up for the dollar

Olu

EurCad

Orange Juice