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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #6,901
  • May 22, 2013 1:30pm May 22, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting EatPIPs
This pair is so uncertain of what it wants!!
Trading GBP/JPY this week has been a complete waste of time, energy, and margin.
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  • #6,902
  • May 22, 2013 1:36pm May 22, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Trading GBP/JPY this week has been a complete waste of time, energy, and margin.
What's causing this drop ? FOMC minutes ?
  • #6,903
  • May 22, 2013 2:02pm May 22, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Trading GBP/JPY this week has been a complete waste of time, energy, and margin.
I have 65% of mine stuck in this pair!
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #6,904
  • May 22, 2013 2:15pm May 22, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} I have 65% of mine stuck in this pair!
I took the loss and flipped position.
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  • #6,905
  • May 22, 2013 2:19pm May 22, 2013 2:19pm
DOW is getting hit harder now... looking like "risk off".
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  • #6,906
  • May 22, 2013 2:41pm May 22, 2013 2:41pm
First small buy here 154.60 this week, and I will add to that when we'll get lower.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #6,907
  • May 22, 2013 2:50pm May 22, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting KillerWhale
First small buy here 154.60 this week, and I will add to that when we'll get lower.
I really can't see the case for longs here. We've broken significant support. I'll have to check my charts once home, but the uptrend channel may be kaput now. The horizontal support is definitely gone. I'm looking to the 50ema on the daily now (~152.00).

GL though!
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #6,908
  • May 22, 2013 2:58pm May 22, 2013 2:58pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I really can't see the case for longs here. We've broken significant support. I'll have to check my charts once home, but the uptrend channel may be kaput now. The horizontal support is definitely gone. I'm looking to the 50ema on the daily now (~152.00). GL though!
Maybe I'm stubborn, but GU will reach a bottom and finally GJ will go up again.
I don't believe in selling yen pairs since the BoJ and the Japanese Government are the very last institutions in the world that I would trust.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #6,909
  • May 22, 2013 3:01pm May 22, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Maybe I'm stubborn, but GU will reach a bottom and finally GJ will go up again.I don't believe in selling yen pairs since the BoJ and the Japanese Government are the very last institutions in the world that I would trust.
Oh and I'm up 25 pips now
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #6,910
  • May 22, 2013 3:04pm May 22, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Maybe I'm stubborn, but GU will reach a bottom and finally GJ will go up again.I don't believe in selling yen pairs since the BoJ and the Japanese Government are the very last institutions in the world that I would trust.
I made a comment about this (I think it was late last week), but I said something about avoiding GBP/JPY.

I disagree 100% regarding Sterling. In my opinion, the downtrend is back and we'll see lower and lower prices. My reason for avoiding GBP/JPY was largely based on this. Tell me, which tends to have more drastic moves? Sterling or USD/JPY. It's definitely Sterling.

Since GBP/JPY is just a product of the two, we're largely dependent on Sterling for further gains considering the moves in USD/JPY are not nearly as aggressive as they were just after the original BoJ announcement weeks ago.

If Sterling could just hold steady while USD/JPY gains, we'd see higher prices in GBP/JPY. However, this week has proven that's not in the cards. I've been long all week, waiting for a break higher. It didn't come and it was frustrating/irritating. I'm now short with an average of 155.10 and I feel MUCH better about it.

What can't go up, must go down. And GBP/JPY is showing classic signs of that.

The hardest thing to do in this game is to reverse your position, but it's also the most profitable thing you can do.
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  • #6,911
  • May 22, 2013 3:25pm May 22, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I made a comment about this (I think it was late last week), but I said something about avoiding GBP/JPY. I disagree 100% regarding Sterling. In my opinion, the downtrend is back and we'll see lower and lower prices. My reason for avoiding GBP/JPY was largely based on this. Tell me, which tends to have more drastic moves? Sterling or USD/JPY. It's definitely Sterling. Since GBP/JPY is just a product of the two, we're largely dependent on Sterling for further gains considering the moves in USD/JPY are not nearly as aggressive as they were...
Maybe you're right.
Took it out for 32 pips.
Thanks.

Actually I'd expected a comment from you about those nice pics I posted from the GG Bridge.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #6,912
  • May 22, 2013 3:28pm May 22, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Maybe you're right.Took it out for 32 pips.Thanks. Actually I'd expected a comment from you about those nice pics I posted from the GG Bridge.
I wasn't trying to get you to change your mind, just sharing my perspective. You should always trade your own plan.
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  • #6,913
  • May 22, 2013 3:29pm May 22, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I really can't see the case for longs here. We've broken significant support. I'll have to check my charts once home, but the uptrend channel may be kaput now. The horizontal support is definitely gone. I'm looking to the 50ema on the daily now (~152.00). GL though!
Im holding onto my longs dude. I don't know what you gonna be aiming for on the shorts but I can't see it dropping lower than 154.3ish. If it does then ill take the loss depending on how and when. It's dropping for sure but not bailing out yet
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #6,914
  • May 22, 2013 3:30pm May 22, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} I wasn't trying to get you to change your mind, just sharing my perspective. You should always trade your own plan.
I know but you're right, it's too risky.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #6,915
  • May 22, 2013 3:30pm May 22, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting EatPIPs
{quote} Im holding onto my longs dude. I don't know what you gonna be aiming for on the shorts but I can't see it dropping lower than 154.3ish. If it does then ill take the loss depending on how and when. It's dropping for sure but not bailing out yet :thumbs up:
Mentioned it in a previous post.
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  • #6,916
  • May 22, 2013 3:39pm May 22, 2013 3:39pm
Quoting Geppy
{quote} Mentioned it in a previous post.
Gotcha
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #6,917
  • May 22, 2013 7:25pm May 22, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting Geppy
Trading GBP/JPY this week has been a complete waste of time, energy, and margin.
Haha, I pretty much agree with this statement so far. It has been a really boring week especially for the GBP/JPY, since we expect so much from it. I've been trading all week but haven't really gotten anywhere in terms of my P&L and while that sucks, I know it is all a learning experience in the end. All of us traders are trying to sharpen our skills every single day and that is what enables us to learn and grow. Even though it has been a difficult trading week, that doesn't mean that the opportunity is not there. My philosophy is that if a move occurs that is bigger than 4-5 pips, well, that's enough to cover the cost of the spread and it therefore represents a reasonable trading opportunity. We all have things we are trying to work on and improve upon and I am no exception. But if the opportunity is there, I know that I am going to try to seize it. Perhaps I am a little too ambitious, but I can't help it, such is my nature

Quoting KillerWhale
First small buy here 154.60 this week, and I will add to that when we'll get lower.
I think this was a really good buy, KillerWhale. I'm not sure we'll be going below there anytime soon.

Quoting Geppy
I made a comment about this (I think it was late last week), but I said something about avoiding GBP/JPY. I disagree 100% regarding Sterling. In my opinion, the downtrend is back and we'll see lower and lower prices. My reason for avoiding GBP/JPY was largely based on this. Tell me, which tends to have more drastic moves? Sterling or USD/JPY. It's definitely Sterling. Since GBP/JPY is just a product of the two, we're largely dependent on Sterling for further gains considering the moves in USD/JPY are not nearly as aggressive as they were just after...
This is a really good point, Geppy. I hadn't really thought of it like this before, because I tend to avoid the fundamental side of the equation (as opposed to the technical side), and I can see how it could be a useful way of thinking about things. I have always believed that everything you need to know is in the charts, but having a fundamental understanding of *why* the things that are happening are happening can give you even further insight into the picture (if that makes sense, haha). I agree that GBP/USD is more volatile than USD/JPY and it therefore makes sense that if Sterling tends to weaken, it's going to be a drag on the GBP/JPY... With that said, see below...

Quoting EatPIPs
Im holding onto my longs dude. I don't know what you gonna be aiming for on the shorts but I can't see it dropping lower than 154.3ish. If it does then ill take the loss depending on how and when. It's dropping for sure but not bailing out yet
I agree with this as well. Right now, the GBP/JPY made a low around 154.50 and I'm not even sure if it'll get that low again soon... but we shall see...

I have a small long position on from about 155.175 and I was looking to add more below that, but I missed the chance as I was writing this post... It looks to me now like the 155.20 is a clear support level and anywhere around there would be a good place to buy again if it gets hit. I know Geppy you have been disappointed this week (so have I), but the coming two weeks are going to be some really good ones in my opinion, I think we should blow past recent highs. Of course, this will take some time to develop though, just like anything. Anyways, just wanted to share my thoughts. Hopefully someone will find them useful!
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  • #6,918
  • May 22, 2013 7:37pm May 22, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting Geppy
The hardest thing to do in this game is to reverse your position, but it's also the most profitable thing you can do.
Also, I thought this was deserving of its own post because it is SO, SO TRUE. As a daytrader, it is even more true. I have started to realize lately that when I find myself getting really angry and starting to swear at the computer, it usually means I need to start thinking about changing my mind... and admitting that I was wrong.

DEFINITELY one of the most difficult concepts to master but also the most rewarding.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #6,919
  • May 22, 2013 8:16pm May 22, 2013 8:16pm
Uh oh... I think I just discovered one drawback to the new MT4 update....

I was just trying to partially close out of my long for about +30 pips but I cannot find an option to do a partial close!!!

This is VERY bad news. Partial closes were one of the single greatest features of MT4 since the no-hedging rule was implemented by the CFTC.

Does anyone know how to do partial closes with the new update? I am going to be very disappointed if this can't be done...
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #6,920
  • May 22, 2013 9:16pm May 22, 2013 9:16pm
Quoting smash1820
Uh oh... I think I just discovered one drawback to the new MT4 update.... I was just trying to partially close out of my long for about +30 pips but I cannot find an option to do a partial close!!! This is VERY bad news. Partial closes were one of the single greatest features of MT4 since the no-hedging rule was implemented by the CFTC. Does anyone know how to do partial closes with the new update? I am going to be very disappointed if this can't be done...

If you're referring to version 4, build 500, there's no change from before.
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