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NZD/USD

  • #2,001
  • May 22, 2013 7:07pm May 22, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Think it was more than that. People woke up and realized the Australian economy wasn't that peachy. You would think you'd be trading the yen otherwise. 1000 pips in a month is not normal fluctuations. Only other pair to move like this are yen pairs. What are the other pairs missing?

Since you are talking about the Aussie then lets talk about the Aussie.Fact is price reaching 95-96 is not out of ordinary.It did reach twice since 2011
and went up again above 1.050 over and over again.
Couldn't you made the same argument every time price reached 95? About Aussie economy? etc.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.weekly.png Size: 39 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,002
  • May 22, 2013 7:09pm May 22, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}I am sure you noticed its not just the Kiwi is down entire market is down against Greenbacks!So everything supposedly was "overbought" to begin with correct?This is just a natural market cycle.
I'm not sure of your point?

I simply said it seems to me to be the most overbought currency and is falling hard.

On observation, it seemed to me taking shorts off rallies would be less risky
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdmonthly.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #2,003
  • May 22, 2013 7:09pm May 22, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Hi guys,I'm just wondering, why the interest in buying here? Kiwi seems to be under a lot of pressure and it was perhaps the most overbought currency on the planet, even more than the Aussie. We are pressuring 1st level of resistance quite hard and could head down to 7650 {image} {image} {image}

hey brother good to see you,

my feelings are that any further devaluation in the kiwi is somewhat unwarranted. I agree when QE indicates an ending is in sight it will have a stronger effect and I think the drop in value recently has simply lowered the range away from the 0.85 plus mark. I do not see anything below 0.78 right now and I can more than handle that drawdown, may need to be patient but I will be at TP around 0.835 and although I wont be adding any further im fairly confident of this being achieved within the next month and will give me my 10%.

somewhere soon the dollar will weaken and the kiwi will find buyers, im holding my lots
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,004
  • May 22, 2013 7:17pm May 22, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} hey brother good to see you, my feelings are that any further devaluation in the kiwi is somewhat unwarranted. I agree when QE indicates an ending is in sight it will have a stronger effect and I think the drop in value recently has simply lowered the range away from the 0.85 plus mark. I do not see anything below 0.78 right now and I can more than handle that drawdown, may need to be patient but I will be at TP around 0.835 and although I wont be adding any further im fairly confident of this being achieved within the next month and will...
no probs mate, we all trade different, I hope you get your mark

the A/NZ seems to be wanting to turn north so i'd have thought buying Aussie soonish might have been less risky
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #2,005
  • May 22, 2013 7:18pm May 22, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote}I'm not sure of your point? I simply said it seems to me to be the most overbought currency and is falling hard. On observation, it seemed to me taking shorts off rallies would be less risky {image}
I simply made an observation that "overbought" is relative term and is meaningless.Same way oversold is.
I just don't think like that.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,006
  • May 22, 2013 7:19pm May 22, 2013 7:19pm
feels like it's bottoming "again". Today the vague words of one guy moved prices more than all the fundamental news in a week. Even if the US were to raise interest rates eventually, NZ will use that opportunity to raise it's rates alongside. The interest rate differential is not going away.
  • #2,007
  • May 22, 2013 7:25pm May 22, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}I simply made an observation that "overbought" is relative term and is meaningless.Same way oversold is.I just don't think like that.
ok
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #2,008
  • May 22, 2013 7:29pm May 22, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote}no probs mate, we all trade different, I hope you get your mark the A/NZ seems to be wanting to turn north so i'd have thought buying Aussie soonish might have been less risky

I dont like the interest rate predictions for the Aussie and have resisted any temptation to go long on the AUDNZD too which i have seen promoted on some threads.

i think the drop from 0.85 plus was warranted but the increased drop has more to do with dollar strength which i think is being overstated right now. Even bernanke admits that the unemployment number in the US when you factor out the fall in the active workforce as a percentage of population is really nowhere near as good as it looks. Plus at what cost with all the QE, in reality US is goosed, Euro is goosed, GB is ducked. NZ and Aussie still projecting running a surplus around the time when the rest of the developed world will be just maxing out their balance sheets.

I think these pairs will stay strong relatively for longer than people think. Parity in interest rates may see the Aussie trade at around .80 again but we are some way from that.
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,009
  • May 22, 2013 7:31pm May 22, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting Davit
{quote}I simply made an observation that "overbought" is relative term and is meaningless.Same way oversold is.I just don't think like that.
Can you explain why relative terms are meaningless when trading currency ("pairs")
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #2,010
  • May 22, 2013 7:32pm May 22, 2013 7:32pm
Quoting iNZane
feels like it's bottoming "again". Today the vague words of one guy moved prices more than all the fundamental news in a week. Even if the US were to raise interest rates eventually, NZ will use that opportunity to raise it's rates alongside. The interest rate differential is not going away.

true and more likely that NZ will move before the US (especially if the housing market dont cool itself down)

Inflation in the US will exceed anything close to what the NZ economy will suffer and i wouldnt expect to see a role reversal on interest rate differentials once all that money held by companies and banks is actually released into the market
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,011
  • May 22, 2013 7:36pm May 22, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} I dont like the interest rate predictions for the Aussie and have resisted any temptation to go long on the AUDNZD too which i have seen promoted on some threads. i think the drop from 0.85 plus was warranted but the increased drop has more to do with dollar strength which i think is being overstated right now. Even bernanke admits that the unemployment number in the US when you factor out the fall in the active workforce as a percentage of population is really nowhere near as good as it looks. Plus at what cost with all the QE, in reality...
Yes bro, interest rates are predicted to take a further hit. I agree, they will stay strong over longer term, I don't see the fundamentals that got us here disappearing overnight, particularly if we can get a govt change to reduce wasteful spending.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #2,012
  • May 22, 2013 7:36pm May 22, 2013 7:36pm
seems to be finding some support but if you look across all Dollar pairs it just seesm like dollar strength might be finding a short term limit.

I mean just look at the move (based on not much more than a slight hint of an improvement in yield and a possible end of QE at some point) i mean of course it will end at some point so its nothing new. until an actual schedule is announced i cant see this incredible dollar strength being warranted or supported for too long.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdollarweekly.png Size: 85 KB
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,013
  • May 22, 2013 7:42pm May 22, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote}Can you explain why relative terms are meaningless when trading currency ("pairs")

I don't use lagging indicators terminology used often in forums RSI, MACD etc "overbought" "oversold". Common mistake lot of traders do react to these indicators as some kind of Greek goat intestine reading.
I trade supply and demand simply based on historical data on the charts.I trade zones not specific price.If you take Andrews Pitchfork concept price always returns to median line more or less.So in this concept anything above median line is sell zone below buy.That is my trading style and I am not trading like majority here.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,014
  • Edited 8:26pm May 22, 2013 7:44pm | Edited 8:26pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Since you are talking about the Aussie then lets talk about the Aussie.Fact is price reaching 95-96 is not out of ordinary.It did reach twice since 2011and went up again above 1.050 over and over again.Couldn't you made the same argument every time price reached 95? About Aussie economy? etc. {image}
Well, I don't know what the economy was in 2011, but if you read my previous posts I technically mentioned everything you just did. Price has memory, and I follow the mental clues.

Check out my chart. Same as yours. The only difference is I seen it long before anyone else. Instead of looking at these moves in the past, I look for them in the future
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #2,015
  • May 22, 2013 7:48pm May 22, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} So in this concept anything above median line is sell zone below buy.

Got to agree with this and in truth the indicators you speak of for me are just secondary pushes to help me establish a good entry outside of the said Median line.

With an eye on long term fundamentals which undoubtedly effect price movement. The speed of a movement outside of the line will increase the chance of an RSI signal but it does not necessarily mean the price has moved sufficiently to warrant an entry.

Guys i need to step back from this technical stuff. im a simple man and its frying my mind

Buy low, sell high 9i mean how hard can it be?)
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,016
  • May 22, 2013 7:49pm May 22, 2013 7:49pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I don't use lagging indicators terminology used often in forums RSI, MACD etc "overbought" "oversold". Common mistake lot of traders do react to these indicators as some kind of Greek goat intestine reading.I trade supply and demand simply based on historical data on the charts.I trade zones not specific price.If you take Andrews Pitchfork concept price always returns to median line more or less.So in this concept anything above median line is sell zone below buy.That is my trading style and I am not trading like majority here.
no I don't use indies either, that's not what I meant.
I was just using it as a loose term based on the chart continually rising with little significant retrace on higher TF's relative to other pairs.

approaching a tough channel at 78, it won't go easily I agree. I'll take a look at it around then
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdweekly.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #2,017
  • May 22, 2013 7:50pm May 22, 2013 7:50pm
Speaking of zones, pivots, etc....., if anybody else trades other Kiwi pairs, the EUR/NZD is stuck @ the 1.5945 area, because that's the 2012 yearly pivot point. Waiting to see where it goes and then will trade accordingly. 500 pips potential which ever way it goes.
Time turns trend. - W.D. Gann
  • #2,018
  • May 22, 2013 7:53pm May 22, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} Got to agree with this and in truth the indicators you speak of for me are just secondary pushes to help me establish a good entry outside of the said Median line. With an eye on long term fundamentals which undoubtedly effect price movement. The speed of a movement outside of the line will increase the chance of an RSI signal but it does not necessarily mean the price has moved sufficiently to warrant an entry. Guys i need to step back from this technical stuff. im a simple man and its frying my mind Buy low, sell high 9i mean how hard...
lol...

let's have a beer
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #2,019
  • May 22, 2013 7:53pm May 22, 2013 7:53pm
Quoting ForExtraPips
Speaking of zones, pivots, etc....., if anybody else trades other Kiwi pairs, the EUR/NZD is stuck @ the 1.5945 area, because that's the 2012 yearly pivot point. Waiting to see where it goes and then will trade accordingly. 500 pips potential which ever way it goes.

For me 'Short'

Euro will weaken over the medium term Kiwi will strengthen from what is on over sold position.

1.594 to 1.55 at least
Money never sleeps...
  • #2,020
  • May 22, 2013 7:55pm May 22, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote}lol... let's have a beer

shrimps are already on the bar b mate
Money never sleeps...
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