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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,561
  • May 22, 2013 10:56am May 22, 2013 10:56am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote}I hope that makes sense.
Yes, it makes sense.

These are great examples of taking advantage of actual inefficiencies in the market for those who want to know what one is and how it plays out.
  • #3,562
  • May 22, 2013 11:01am May 22, 2013 11:01am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Hi, back to the important stuff. The 103 JPY at the ten cut was very much in play today. It was a big one according to IFR. I saw it as artificial support of price and took a quicky short at ten. I did it very small and took profit rather quickly as Bernanke was about to speak but I did get fourteen or fifteen pips. I still don't have a solid way to determine whether the price is being artificially held up or down other than watching price action leading up to the cut. I am getting a decent feel for this as the ticks tell a bit of a story...
I think the "artifcial" move is something to do with USD, rather the JPY.
Similar artificial moves have killed a lot of my trades.
Why you don't seem to have much trouble with them?
  • #3,563
  • May 22, 2013 11:06am May 22, 2013 11:06am
Quoting Hilar
{quote} Yes... You will wait.
Look forward...
I agree with you that many people on FF keep talking about how great they are and unable to prove themselves,
but SP is definitely not one of them, since he has exposed his live trade record for months.
  • #3,564
  • May 22, 2013 11:21am May 22, 2013 11:21am
Quoting kk007
{quote} I think the "artifcial" move is something to do with USD, rather the JPY. Similar artificial moves have killed a lot of my trades. Why you don't seem to have much trouble with them?
When I am speaking of an "artificial" move I am speaking only of the last minutes leading up to options expiry. I was speaking of that specific circumstance.
  • #3,565
  • May 22, 2013 11:23am May 22, 2013 11:23am
Quoting Peepo
Hi SP, glad see you back. am start trading a bit like you, here is a excel file to calculate SL, TP, based on ATR, hope it helps. is ready for 4 pairs, the most I trade, Set the atr, your price, and choose the risk/reward 1/1, 1/2, 1/3 -> tp1, tp2, tp3 and the porcentage of Atr to use, 10, 15, 20 or 25 %. Best regards. BTW: I have a problem in News Times, almost always hits my SL, how do you trade when news comming, or quit all your positions ? another question : do you use buy limiy/ sell limit ? Thanks. {file}
I generally avoid news or tighten stops at the release time. For big news events I have posted a news strategy that I use in the thread. Search NFP in the thread and you should be able to find it. We are undefeated with NFP so far this year and well into last year. Ten for ten at this point.
  • #3,566
  • May 22, 2013 11:25am May 22, 2013 11:25am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} When I am speaking of an "artificial" move I am speaking only of the last minutes leading up to options expiry. I was speaking of that specific circumstance.
Wasn't it May 17? Sorry if it is not.
http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
  • #3,567
  • May 22, 2013 11:28am May 22, 2013 11:28am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I generally avoid news or tighten stops at the release time. For big news events I have posted a news strategy that I use in the thread. Search NFP in the thread and you should be able to find it. We are undefeated with NFP so far this year and well into last year. Ten for ten at this point.
thanks I will look for it.
  • #3,568
  • May 22, 2013 11:31am May 22, 2013 11:31am
Quoting kk007
{quote} Wasn't it May 17? Sorry if it is not. http://www.marketwatch.com/optionscenter/calendar
There was a 103 Uj expiry today at ten NY.
  • #3,569
  • May 22, 2013 11:32am May 22, 2013 11:32am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} There was a 103 Uj expiry today at ten NY.
How do you trade those SP?
H.D
  • #3,570
  • May 22, 2013 11:37am May 22, 2013 11:37am
Quoting Hilar
{quote} How do you trade those SP?
Still working on it. Shorted today with UJ because I saw what I thought was artificial support keeping price up to the 103 strike. I haven't found a way to accurately get the correct direction enough to be profitable.
  • #3,571
  • May 22, 2013 11:40am May 22, 2013 11:40am
Got to go folks. Kids are waking up from their nap. We are going to get their one year pictures made today. Party planning is already in full swing and it is going to be a good one. Only have one first birthday.
  • #3,572
  • May 22, 2013 11:43am May 22, 2013 11:43am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} Still working on it. Shorted today with UJ because I saw what I thought was artificial support keeping price up to the 103 strike. I haven't found a way to accurately get the correct direction enough to be profitable.
(Options... A Killahs perspective):

As time runs out they will tend to push into them more..more of a magnet.. TBH I pay no attention to them myself. But time is the issue with options. So if you have alarge option and then the senttiment (news release) you know where the money is going. (likely going I should say).

Good levels to fade also once the barriers are take out. That's my understanding. Although as I say, pay no attention to them, tahnk you forthe answer. Seems there are a fewinhere that have half a brain.
H.D
  • #3,573
  • May 22, 2013 11:58am May 22, 2013 11:58am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} One way to find out is go to Myfxbook and study the records of traders who had full year histories from 2012, 2011, or 2010 and back. See how they had performed during previous summer months if there is any pattern to match what you heard about "slow weeks". I reckon it's a function of the person (the trader), than the actual calendar month. If the trader can't trade, he won't get any advantage on a "good" month and would blame the summer months for his troubles because forum know-it-alls told him the big boys are enjoying summer vacations...
Thanks, good info! So, no need to worry about those general things that you can read all over from boards. Just trading the style that suits oneself.

Reason I ask, is that I still have to work and on summer there are better time to concentrate on trading.
  • #3,574
  • May 22, 2013 1:12pm May 22, 2013 1:12pm
any1 trading eurusd weekly open line ?
  • #3,575
  • May 22, 2013 2:32pm May 22, 2013 2:32pm
I love this thread...

In fact, it's the only reason I cum on FF anymore
tradewith60
  • #3,576
  • May 22, 2013 2:52pm May 22, 2013 2:52pm
Quoting 60minuteman
I cum on FF
me too, but I also like MFF
  • #3,577
  • May 23, 2013 2:57am May 23, 2013 2:57am
OK, since the thread's been successfully CPR-d I still have a few (very intelligent) questions to this intelligent crew:

SP says that it is possible to make 25% a month with very very small drawdowns and only risking 1% or less per trade. (I know it was 37% but let's leave that now)
But let's say he's been just lucky and you can make only 10% with the same method. (This should be easy and more importantly consistantly possible).

So what is the big fuss about the market wizards that many of them were able to make between 20%-60% annual profit for their investors.

I understand that once you get to big numbers it becomes more difficult to buy and sell because you have to get rid of a lot of shares.

But (1) not all of the wizards are Ray Dalio to deal with a fund of 120 billion dollars. Many of them are much much smaller.
(2) The size problem should be only matter in stocks - certainly not in futures and specially not it forex.

Right?

I don't exactly know where my mistake is but something just feels wrong about this. If a guy like SP (who I love and greatly respect) can easily make 10% a month how can it be that a super professional hedge fund manager is considered to be GOD wheh he makes 20%-60% annually. Even if that is for 20 years.
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #3,578
  • May 23, 2013 3:10am May 23, 2013 3:10am
Quoting rdsl
OK, since the thread's been successfully CPR-d I still have a few (very intelligent) questions to this intelligent crew: SP says that it is possible to make 25% a month with very very small drawdowns and only risking 1% or less per trade. (I know it was 37% but let's leave that now)But let's say he's been just lucky and you can make only 10% with the same method. (This should be easy and more importantly consistantly possible). So what is the big fuss about the market wizards that many of them were able to make between 20%-60% annual profit...
Oh God. Why you want to wake up someone having a sweet dream????????????????????????????
  • #3,579
  • May 23, 2013 3:10am May 23, 2013 3:10am
Quoting rdsl
So what is the big fuss about the market wizards that many of them were able to make between 20%-60% annual profit for their investors. I understand that once you get to big numbers it becomes more difficult to buy and sell because you have to get rid of a lot of shares.
You're comparing apples to oranges. Leverage changes as account size changes, so liquidity isn't the only concern as account size grows. You also don't know what drawdown is tolerated in either system - it's difficult to trade a client account in the same way you trade a personal account.
  • #3,580
  • May 23, 2013 3:49am May 23, 2013 3:49am
Quoting rdsl
OK, since the thread's been successfully CPR-d I still have a few (very intelligent) questions to this intelligent crew: SP says that it is possible to make 25% a month with very very small drawdowns and only risking 1% or less per trade. (I know it was 37% but let's leave that now)But let's say he's been just lucky and you can make only 10% with the same method. (This should be easy and more importantly consistantly possible). So what is the big fuss about the market wizards that many of them were able to make between 20%-60% annual profit...
Good question. You should know that size does matter. Even in forex. The liquidity is very deep, but when you look at how it is distributed it will look a whole lot less impressive. On E/U you have about 7 mill passing through on the Bid and Ask every second (Oanda's CEO wrote an article on this which I will post if I can find it again), which is the most liquid. Now figure in the liquidity gaps and you will probably have some trouble positioning short-term trades intra-day trades (which is most what this thread is about). As I'm sure you know, 100 mill AUM is nothing in the hedge fund space. Given that you will get slipped about 4-5 pips on a 200 mill E/U order on that Dukascopy ECN aggregator (so they claim), you can see why the larger funds could not take advantage of intra-day trends. Let's not even talk about leverage. On 100 mill AUM you would be well into the billions on notional size if you were to apply industry standard leverage at which point you would be moving price against your position as it's getting filled.

Now if there are no 20-50 mill AUM funds doing this then you might have a point. It would be interesting to find out if there are any. If not, this could certainly present a nice niche for traders like Chris, but he already stated that he doesn't want to manage money. However, given that he trades at at entry points where liquidity opens up greatly (just when the retails are providing it by being on the wrong side at market extreme points) I would be surprised if he couldn't get smooth fills of around 20 mill on the top 5 majors.
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