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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,521
  • May 22, 2013 8:43am May 22, 2013 8:43am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The FIRST level hit on EU today was the Tuesday London close. You should have a long bias. the trade drew down seven pips and hit forty plus profit pips. It is key that you either take the first trade of the day or at least know what that was and trade in that direction. First trade on UJ was a classic daily open. Also should have led you to a long bias.
I will also point out that EU has not stopped out on the short at the Tuesday high. The stop should be 19 pips and price has not been that high at this point.
  • #3,522
  • May 22, 2013 8:45am May 22, 2013 8:45am
Quoting kk007
I faded both EU and UJ at yesterday high, both stopped out. Have I done something wrong or they are normal drawdown? {image}
EU's looking for the weekly SR to stop it... yesterdays close said more longs for sure
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tradewith60
  • #3,523
  • May 22, 2013 8:45am May 22, 2013 8:45am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} The FIRST level hit on EU today was the Tuesday London close. You should have a long bias. the trade drew down seven pips and hit forty plus profit pips. It is key that you either take the first trade of the day or at least know what that was and trade in that direction. First trade on UJ was a classic daily open. Also should have led you to a long bias.
Thanks a lot SP... I understand your this reply, but I didn't know that you trade the London close for EU. I thought you trade London close only for GU..
  • #3,524
  • May 22, 2013 8:48am May 22, 2013 8:48am
Quoting mmaker
{quote} Don't give up. Help him out at his thread, How difficult is it to find an effective daytrading method?
Just did... So I'm guessing you need no help? You know it all right?
H.D
  • #3,525
  • May 22, 2013 8:48am May 22, 2013 8:48am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} EU's looking for the weekly SR to stop it... yesterdays close said more longs for sure {image}
Thanks, you are trading visual S/R on MTF, right?
  • #3,526
  • May 22, 2013 8:49am May 22, 2013 8:49am
Quoting Hilar
{quote} What could possibly be wrong with standing in front of a train? Both trades were against severe trends. Did you look to see what other EUR pairs were doing? Maybe the USD was in enough demand to buck that trend?.. Nope Hey check out the EUR/USD against other majors... That's one tough MF... Lots to ponder there
I'll give you a trend for UJ but where is the up trend for EU?
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  • #3,527
  • May 22, 2013 8:51am May 22, 2013 8:51am
Quoting kk007
{quote} Thanks, you are trading visual S/R on MTF, right?
yeah, trading h4 turns using daily and weekly for SR and trend...
tradewith60
  • #3,528
  • May 22, 2013 8:53am May 22, 2013 8:53am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} yeah, trading h4 turns using daily and weekly for SR and trend...
So, you are not trading the method on this thread at all?
  • #3,529
  • May 22, 2013 8:56am May 22, 2013 8:56am
Lol at all these people posting basic support and resistance levels and then claiming some online trader "discovered" them.

BRV levels?
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #3,530
  • May 22, 2013 8:58am May 22, 2013 8:58am
Quoting kk007
{quote} So, you are not trading the method on this thread at all?
I think the method is to choose SR lines to trade and then develop your own method.

Seneca has suggested some ideas that work for him, but (correct me if i'm wrong) he wanted us to develop our own methods too..

However you re-box it though, SR/price is the only thing that's real, we're all looking at the same thing
tradewith60
  • #3,531
  • May 22, 2013 9:01am May 22, 2013 9:01am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I'll give you a trend for UJ but where is the up trend for EU? {image} {image} {image} {image}

LEFT hand column good sir

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Resistance has no name in this town
H.D
  • #3,532
  • May 22, 2013 9:03am May 22, 2013 9:03am
Quoting Hilar
{quote} LEFT hand column good sir {image}
EU H4 chart, I think you mean.
  • #3,533
  • May 22, 2013 9:03am May 22, 2013 9:03am
Quoting 60minuteman
{quote} I think the method is to choose SR lines to trade and then develop your own method. Seneca has suggested some ideas that work for him, but (correct me if i'm wrong) he wanted us to develop our own methods too.. However you re-box it though, SR/price is the only thing that's real, we're all looking at the same thing
Thanks...
  • #3,534
  • May 22, 2013 9:08am May 22, 2013 9:08am
Quoting kk007
{quote} EU H4 chart, I think you mean.
ok
H.D
  • #3,535
  • May 22, 2013 9:17am May 22, 2013 9:17am
Quoting kk007
{quote} EU H4 chart, I think you mean.
no he meant what he said - 'left hand column'
EU
EG
EA
EN

ie Euro strength over past 3 days
  • #3,536
  • May 22, 2013 9:19am May 22, 2013 9:19am
I have given something here that is a framework to build a trading method. All I tried to do here is spell out the important price levels through the day that can be traded. Levels that contain an edge. I showed how to view them from the perspective of a touch trader. Yesterday I showed how to trade them if you are someone who needs confirmation. I am not sure what else I can do. I don't have the time to correct every losing trade. I had hoped you might do some intense back testing and come up with your own way to trade price.

I'll try one more time;

Place the following lines on a chart for each day. High, Low, London close, NY close, and daily open. Now go back through as many years of data as you have and get some statistics on how price interacts with these prices. There is an edge in these prices. It is not a ninety percent hit rate trading method. You have to craft a method around price levels. The key is taking your bias for the day off the first level hit. If you are unable or unwilling to be there for that first trade then you must take that bias for the trading day until a trade is stopped out.

Many of the levels that BRV trades do line up with these price levels. Support and resistance naturally seems to happen at important price levels. I also happen to like the Quasimodo pattern that he pointed out. I don't necessarily trade it but I use it to get exits often.

The trades I showed yesterday are highs and lows with confirmation. I call them express trades because they are only taken at a high or low and never in the middle (just like an express elevator). When trading these you are basically buying the previous day low and selling the previous day high but waiting for confirmation in the form of breaking the low or high of an opening range bar of each trading session. It's too simple to have anything lost in translation. If the opening fifteen minutes of a session is at or very near a high or low then you take the breakout back in the direction of the mean. This also will not win 100% of the time but it contains a very strong edge if traded with some discipline.

You guys will have to find anything else by digging. I don't want to spoon feed here.
  • #3,537
  • May 22, 2013 9:27am May 22, 2013 9:27am
Quoting Hilar
{quote} LEFT hand column good sir {image} Resistance has no name in this town
I'll refer you back to this chart where there is some actual price history not just the past two days. This is a short term up move in a four hour down trend. I don't really look at this too much as I don't want a bias to creep into my trading. I have already explained that I would be looking long on EU today due to the first trade tagging the NY close price from above
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  • #3,538
  • May 22, 2013 9:27am May 22, 2013 9:27am
That's the problem, reading FF - should be doing two weeks (real time) of backtesting.
  • #3,539
  • May 22, 2013 9:29am May 22, 2013 9:29am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I'll refer you back to this chart where there is some actual price history not just the past two days. This is a short term up move in a four hour down trend. I don't really look at this too much as I don't want a bias to creep into my trading. I have already explained that I would be looking long on EU today due to the first trade tagging the London close price from above {image}
I also included the daily, weekly, and monthly charts to show the ranging nature of the pair over the past several years.
  • #3,540
  • May 22, 2013 9:35am May 22, 2013 9:35am
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I'll refer you back to this chart where there is some actual price history not just the past two days. This is a short term up move in a four hour down trend. I don't really look at this too much as I don't want a bias to creep into my trading. I have already explained that I would be looking long on EU today due to the first trade tagging the NY close price from above {image}
Wow, look at that. Guess we need more than two days on our charts after all.
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