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All Majors and Gold

  • #6,461
  • May 21, 2013 8:20pm May 21, 2013 8:20pm
12 hours ago:
Quoting EricB
{quote} I see this downside move tanking around 1350-1365. Then sideways for a bit and then up.
I hope you guys scalped in the sideways move.
  • #6,462
  • May 21, 2013 8:30pm May 21, 2013 8:30pm
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahah
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #6,463
  • May 21, 2013 8:32pm May 21, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting gnomoneey
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahah
BoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohooooo !!!
  • #6,464
  • May 21, 2013 8:34pm May 21, 2013 8:34pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} BoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohoooooBoooooohooooo !!!
so bored....any EW charts available for gold...please post
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #6,465
  • May 21, 2013 8:35pm May 21, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting gnomoneey
hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahah

any joke???????????
  • #6,466
  • May 21, 2013 8:37pm May 21, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting EricB
12 hours ago: {quote} I hope you guys scalped in the sideways move.
yeah scalping 80 to 78...not bad....lol
  • #6,467
  • May 21, 2013 8:37pm May 21, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting razaali
{quote} any joke???????????
just so bored...I made a point to awake to trade tonight and this is what I get...boring....someone post some charts....im lost for first time in weeks
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #6,468
  • May 21, 2013 8:43pm May 21, 2013 8:43pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} just so bored...I made a point to awake to trade tonight and this is what I get...boring....someone post some charts....im lost for first time in weeks
I'll give you a chart. This is a program that does Stock-To-Use Analysis. The light green is Gold/Silver Ratio. The Dark green are stocks. What do you see?
Attached Image
  • #6,469
  • May 21, 2013 8:46pm May 21, 2013 8:46pm
Quoting EricB
{quote} I'll give you a chart. This is a program that does Stock-To-Use Analysis. The light green is Gold/Silver Ratio. The Dark green are stocks. What do you see? {image}
divergence
money flowing into stocks and out of gold/silver

-then shouldn't gold go lower?
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #6,470
  • Edited 10:20pm May 21, 2013 8:55pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting gnomoneey
{quote} divergence money flowing into stocks and out of gold/silver -then shouldn't gold go lower?
In my opinion the divergence in this particular chart comes about when the values of the the underlying asset are removed from their intrinsic attributes resulting in a disequilibrium. So lets look at stocks, the P/E ratio is a little high but not crazy high, however there is a lot of exuberance on future earnings. Similarly, if the economy is going to get worse, or is getting worse then silver which is a highly industrialised material will fall as a result of supply and demand. This will also lead to deflation which is a negative for Gold. However, this will result risk aversion which is a positive for Gold.

Result:
So when I look at my chart there are three things I see:

1) Increased Volatility
2) Stocks gearing up for a correction
3) Divergence in Silver and Gold Prices with, Silver falling below Gold
4) Slightly bullish for Gold, knowing that the intrinsic value of Gold is pretty close to its actual hedged miner forward contracts and its "all in" price of $1000-$1100
  • #6,471
  • May 21, 2013 10:33pm May 21, 2013 10:33pm
Hi guys... Silver chart looking to make a break. Any thoughts? My bias is north, seeing higher volume on the dips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-05-22 at 1.27.26 PM.png Size: 29 KB
  • #6,472
  • May 21, 2013 10:48pm May 21, 2013 10:48pm
Very important for all gold traders, as long as yen is weakening i will be selling rallies on gold as i do for last 12 months :
Inserted Video
  • #6,473
  • May 21, 2013 11:16pm May 21, 2013 11:16pm
Quoting Cibi
Very important for all gold traders, as long as yen is weakening i will be selling rallies on gold as i do for last 12 months : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR3TyfKTeNE
Excellent video Cibi and thank you for contributing. It is very interesting. I have started punching in the numbers in my software for the impact of Japanese Yen carry trade on gold. I can tell you now that it definitely was one of the things that impacted Gold for sure - will report back when I have something decent to report.
  • #6,474
  • May 21, 2013 11:17pm May 21, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting Cibi
Very important for all gold traders, as long as yen is weakening i will be selling rallies on gold as i do for last 12 months : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AR3TyfKTeNE
thanks for the post...great watch!
  • #6,475
  • Edited May 22, 2013 2:21am May 21, 2013 11:58pm | Edited May 22, 2013 2:21am
Quoting EricB
{quote} Excellent video Cibi and thank you for contributing. It is very interesting. I have started punching in the numbers in my software for the impact of Japanese Yen carry trade on gold. I can tell you now that it definitely was one of the things that impacted Gold for sure - will report back when I have something decent to report.
Ok here are my preliminary thoughts on Cibi's video which was an excellent bit of information that I had completely forgot to incorporate in my analysis:

First Scenario

1) The JGB market is going to collapse unless the JGB yeilds are increased.
2) Interest rate increase will be negative for JPY
3) We see this realisation dawn on Japanese Central Bank and they start controlling currency meaning the situation is stabalised
4) We have only seen ETF Gold being sold to date, which makes sense as Gold is 0% yielding. Meaning ETF would have had to liquidate as people on the top end who had leverage using carry trade had to sell, and then others with stops cascaded the Gold downfall. The fundamental Gold market was stronger this year, and we know only ETF's have been sold.
4) Japanese Govt will struggle to pay increased rates - and will weaken - leading it closer to default
5) Overall Gold will recover in this scenario

Second Scenario:

1) JPY continues weakening and is unstoppable
2) Still leads to JGB Collapse
3) Gold will weaken further in this scenario but eventually recover as hyperinflation will kick in

Third scenario

1) Japanese Government Defaults as a result of increased rates
2) JPY collapses
3) Armageddon - cant describe how catastrophic this will be for World Economy - expect 30-40% corrections in stocks world wide
4) Gold will shoot up beyond $2000


So my thesis is that thanks to Cibi we can now factor JPY in Gold PA, which means that it can result in weakness but it will be short term 3-9 months. Eventually Gold seems to be going up in every scenario.

If you guys would like me to punch in all the numbers and create charts with levels on a possible trade on above scenarios let me know and I can do that in my spare time.
  • #6,476
  • May 22, 2013 2:30am May 22, 2013 2:30am
i hedge long gold with short silver...it worked so far but now i m little worried...can it happen that silver race north and gold remains sluggish?
  • #6,477
  • May 22, 2013 2:55am May 22, 2013 2:55am
[quote=EricB;6697194]{quote} Ok here are my preliminary thoughts on Cibi's video which was an excellent bit of information that I had completely forgot to incorporate in my analysis: First Scenario 1) The JGB market is going to collapse unless the JGB yeilds are increased. 2) Interest rate increase will be negative for JPY 3) We see this realisation dawn on Japanese Central Bank and they start controlling currency meaning the situation is stabalised

Just two minutes ago:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...20-702113.html

"Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday it is "natural" for interest rates to rise if economic conditions improve, according to a government official quoting the central bank head."
  • #6,478
  • May 22, 2013 3:40am May 22, 2013 3:40am
hello. any news about crude. i lost about 2000 usd last 4 days buying oil.



s o s
  • #6,479
  • May 22, 2013 4:10am May 22, 2013 4:10am
Quoting forestmanfx
hello. any news about crude. i lost about 2000 usd last 4 days buying oil. s o s
Sorry to hear about your loss. You must have bought at the top end of the market when it had already moved up quite a bit. $100 is a major resistance. Downside risk remains on technical. You have to watch out for contract expiry date as well.
  • #6,480
  • May 22, 2013 4:16am May 22, 2013 4:16am
Quoting forestmanfx
hello. any news about crude. i lost about 2000 usd last 4 days buying oil. s o s
https://www.tradingview.com/v/31CVuxWz/

look at this, 97-98 is a selling area . not buying bro
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