AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday) | Forex Factory

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Attachments: AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday)
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AUDJPY + EURAUD + AUDUSD -- (carry + intraday)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited May 19, 2013 11:52am May 17, 2013 6:53pm | Edited May 19, 2013 11:52am
This thread is for my three favorite carry pairs (liquid pairs not exotics).

-When yen based risk is on, I look for carry trades via the Aussie/Yen (long)
-When dollar based risk is off, I look for carry trades via the Euro/Aussie (short)
-When dollar based risk is on, I look for carry trades via the Aussie/Dollar (long)


1)This thread is not limited to carry setups only. Please post any setups you see, long or short, on any of these 3 pairs. Also, not limited to medium term or long term trading. Day trading and scalping analysis and/or trade calls are fine.

2) Most of my intraday trades are taken on AUDJPY

3) I like AUDJPY the most because it seems to have the most consistent price action characteristics.


Rules

1) anything goes on the weekend

2) during week only charts and relevant information/news

3) dont be a jackass


I look forward to seeing what you all come up with.


May 17 2013

Right now I am most focused on how June will play out in AUDJPY. I am preparing for a big short. When yen pairs finally pull back, AUDJPY will likely see the most retrace (because Aussie is most overvalued). Then this up move will finally have some efficiency and if we want to break the highs (because of yen inflation, even despite aussie inflation) of 107.50 or so, it will be much easier to do after a 1000 or so pip retrace...


Here is a speculative chart for AUDJPY.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussieyenspeculation.png Size: 98 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #2
  • May 17, 2013 11:14pm May 17, 2013 11:14pm
I was thinking of starting and AJ thread, nice.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ 5-17.png Size: 50 KB
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #3
  • May 18, 2013 10:48pm May 18, 2013 10:48pm
Quoting whatever007
I was thinking of starting and AJ thread, nice. {image}
Yeah there is an AJ thread already but no posts since middle of April


I like your chart, seems more likely than my scenario of breaking to about 103.50/104.00 and then falling back really hard.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #4
  • May 18, 2013 10:55pm May 18, 2013 10:55pm
hi, interesting thread. Well can you specify the "time zone" in GMT? So it will help me to understand which "intraday" you are trading in.
  • #5
  • May 18, 2013 11:00pm May 18, 2013 11:00pm
Quoting namitak007
hi, interesting thread. Well can you specify the "time zone" in GMT? So it will help me to understand which "intraday" you are trading in.

London and U.S. session. I typically start my day after London lunch, but sometimes will be on for London open


Not exactly sure how much I will be posting, but I assume a fair amount, even though I am glued to the charts, I am scalping longer moves now and only taking 3-5 trades a day over about 8-10 hours.


Feel free to post charts on audjpy, euraud, audusd
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #6
  • May 18, 2013 11:22pm May 18, 2013 11:22pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} London and U.S. session. I typically start my day after London lunch, but sometimes will be on for London open Not exactly sure how much I will be posting, but I assume a fair amount, even though I am glued to the charts, I am scalping longer moves now and only taking 3-5 trades a day over about 8-10 hours. Feel free to post charts on audjpy, euraud, audusd
okay good. Well here is my chart. I uploaded in another thread. It's not full of fibs and marks just shown what I think of AU next week. I am still bearish and think it will go below .97 to next strong support around .95x I have longed at .974 and currently few pips red, I am targeting .977 to exit from current long as I am not sure about next moves and missed my 1st tp of .98. Another intensive sell off can burn my money. I already burned some on NU and AU last week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud1.jpg Size: 305 KB
  • #7
  • Edited 11:31am May 19, 2013 5:00am | Edited 11:31am
Nice chart Namitak. I am also looking long for next week. If this wants to go down, it likely will not happen until June


edit: sorry i thought that was an AJ chart. both should be good for longs next week though. Aussie should see some consolidation and then a relief rally (which i will short)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #8
  • Edited 5:46am May 19, 2013 5:01am | Edited 5:46am
just some weekend stuff... working on scalping m15...

also gives you a quick look into the three intraday parameters/strategies i use

really, keep it simple, stupid. i used to have unbelievable complicated parameters and money management, as well as too many of them, and it just made me freeze up in the time of action, because i didnt know which one to use (back in fall 2012)


i have finally settled (i think..) on good colors for my charts... honestly this just fits my eye so well and i can see price action so clear


here is a test of 8 hours worth of trading at 5x real time speed using only the m15 chart for information

it took a little under 2 hours of real time to do this, and i was trading my normal setups... to near perfection i might add.




just using one chart, the m15. unbelievable what simplicity can do for you. and patience



to be able to yield 9% in 8 hours with a max possible drawdown of 1.5% (or 4.5% on the day with 3 consecutive losses)


i highly recommend practice trading using the backtester, at a higher speed than normal. why? to learn PATIENCE. you are probably right more often than you think but dont give yourself time to let it play out.

also its a great confidence builder for taking a strategy live if you happen to think something might work but dont want to forward test it (real time) to find out


i dont really care about the moving averages and bollinger bands, they are just an easy visual reference and confluence for divergences in price action in momentum (which i really define as liquidity drying up.. even if no strong sellers emerge, if any sellers at all, lack of buyers cause price to fall)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: papertradingbacktestaudjpy.png Size: 150 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #9
  • Edited 6:49am May 19, 2013 6:19am | Edited 6:49am
aud & jpy my my bread and butter. Subscribed.

I dont think AUD will recover quick

http://www.smh.com.au/business/dolla...517-2js3r.html

could see it down to 70c, and of course stock market up to new high.

it is probably banks that want high aud as their debt likely in USD. But then proprty bubble wil burst, so they have to give up their greedines.

next week playing aud from short side

possible target for current drop = 90 in 3 weeks.
  • #10
  • May 19, 2013 6:51am May 19, 2013 6:51am
EDURAUD will continue higher for a while. However, low has not been stamped yet.

now you know my view
  • #11
  • May 19, 2013 6:55am May 19, 2013 6:55am
sorry, forgot JPY.

usjy will continue higher. Buying next week.

aujy - duno. break of 100 did not hold. it is also my favourite pair.
  • #12
  • May 19, 2013 7:45am May 19, 2013 7:45am
Quoting seaman2
aud & jpy my my bread and butter. Subscribed. I dont think AUD will recover quick http://www.smh.com.au/business/dolla...517-2js3r.html could see it down to 70c, and of course stock market up to new high. it is probably banks that want high aud as their debt likely in USD. But then proprty bubble wil burst, so they have to give up their greedines. next week playing aud from short side possible target for current drop = 90 in 3 weeks.
3 weeks sounds really fast but the P&F chart agrees with 90.

Attached Image
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #13
  • Edited 11:37am May 19, 2013 11:10am | Edited 11:37am
Quoting seaman2
aud & jpy my my bread and butter. Subscribed. I dont think AUD will recover quick http://www.smh.com.au/business/dolla...517-2js3r.html could see it down to 70c, and of course stock market up to new high. it is probably banks that want high aud as their debt likely in USD. But then proprty bubble wil burst, so they have to give up their greedines. next week playing aud from short side possible target for current drop = 90 in 3 weeks.
i agree, i dont think it will recover until 0.8500 area.. although 0.9600 possibly will hold up for a few weeks.

70c seems like too much to me for one rate cut though. i can easily see it happening if we have a major global crash again, but i dont think CBs will let it happen in such a crazy dramatic manner as it did in 2008... although they could.

after all, they are the market makers. anyone who says CB aren't its just BS. all CBs are active in the market via stealth, IE they have another large entity long or short the market


good analysis that CB wants high AUD, this why i think it wont fall more than 0.8200 and 0.8500 is good target for shorts
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #14
  • May 19, 2013 11:16am May 19, 2013 11:16am
Quoting seaman2
sorry, forgot JPY. usjy will continue higher. Buying next week. aujy - duno. break of 100 did not hold. it is also my favourite pair.
hmm interesting, thanks for the view

if JPY pairs continue higher and AUD seems some relief (even 150 pips up) then AJ should test the upper end of the channel its in.. maybe even breakout.

would like to see north one more time to 102.50/103.50 where I will very likely start building my short position... as AUD continues its downtrend and JPY finally retraces, we SHOULD see a significantly lower aussie yen...

0.9400 i would like to see (AUDJPY)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #15
  • May 19, 2013 11:23am May 19, 2013 11:23am
Quoting whatever007
{quote} 3 weeks sounds really fast but the P&F chart agrees with 90. {image}
equivalent to aussie price this is about 0.9400

curious, why are you using that chart not a spot forex chart?
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #16
  • May 19, 2013 12:53pm May 19, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} equivalent to aussie price this is about 0.9400 curious, why are you using that chart not a spot forex chart?
I was just using stockcharts, I don't know another site with P&F.
Soar on my wings, you'll touch the hand of God, he'll make you King.
  • #17
  • May 19, 2013 12:59pm May 19, 2013 12:59pm
Long term bullish signal on EurAud coming from the weekly Ichimoku cloud.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ichi.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #18
  • May 19, 2013 4:17pm May 19, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting elisab
Long term bullish signal on EurAud coming from the weekly Ichimoku cloud. {image}
very nice to see, thanks for posting
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #19
  • May 19, 2013 5:00pm May 19, 2013 5:00pm
long 99.90 AJ


that was one hell of a fakeout


extremely dry liquidity = strong reversal usually



also short audusd 9755, not looking for much out of this short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: longaudjpy.png Size: 41 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #20
  • May 19, 2013 5:05pm May 19, 2013 5:05pm
Hi R2R, subscribed. I'm looking for a turn around in EA and AU. I won't be taking any trades in the current directions.
Cheers.
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