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Aussie Trading Room and Cartoons Gallery

  • #30,081
  • Edited 10:27pm May 18, 2013 9:52pm | Edited 10:27pm
The USD used to run to the opposite direction of stock markets not long ago. But, now it moves in sync with the US stock markets. Is the USD a risky asset now? It's possible. I mentioned the oil boom in the US would transfer the USD to both safe heaven and risky asset statuses in this forum before.

Accordingly, the Aussie has transfered to a non-risky asset relative to the USD. Since S&P hit highs, the Aussie has dropped like a rock.

A pullback of S&P will push AU higher in the coming days.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,082
  • May 18, 2013 9:59pm May 18, 2013 9:59pm
If this P&F Pattern's forecast of 88.75 was correct then S&P would have to go above 1,830 at least. It's about a 10% increase from current level. [AU would have to drop 10% to 88.75.] Is this possible? IMO, it's unlikely. My conclusion is that this forecast is totally out of sync with the reality.


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368927725
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,083
  • May 18, 2013 10:03pm May 18, 2013 10:03pm
Hi Daddy Bear, whether the effect of berrnanke speak for AUD/USD?
Thanks
  • #30,084
  • May 18, 2013 11:16pm May 18, 2013 11:16pm
hahahha! Nice artwork DB A real bull fan indeed!

Well I too agree that shorting here is nothing but a high risk trading. I too think it will come to at least parity.

Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} IMO Fundamentals can be analyzed but cannot be predicted. Technical can be analyzed and can be projected. This is why I look at the technical only.
You are absolutely right that fundamental moves are unpredictable and that is why I will take exit from current long asap as no one can tell where the market is heading. IMO when market moves fundamentally it's better to stay aside. It's like the strongest stream of river. You must be an elephant to dare to cross it in opposite direction. Currently I see only downtrend. So longing here can be or can not be a good choice. I was not there in 2008 but that time I don't know if anybody ever imagined how AU can fall. Almost 4000 pips drop is just 6 months. Well the reasons were different, recession was there, etc but still AU dropped drastically. In technical way we can project maybe 100 pips moves and can bank some good profit but fundamental moves destroys the rules and techniques. It's like a free bird goes any direction with any speed. It dropped almost 900 pips in last couple of weeks. 1.06 to 0.97 who knows if it drops another 1000 pips?
  • #30,085
  • Edited May 19, 2013 12:02am May 18, 2013 11:49pm | Edited May 19, 2013 12:02am
Quoting Yoes
Hi Daddy Bear, whether the effect of berrnanke speak for AUD/USD? Thanks
After his speech, AU moved up slightly.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,086
  • May 18, 2013 11:55pm May 18, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting namitak007
hahahha! Nice artwork DB A real bull fan indeed! Well I too agree that shorting here is nothing but a high risk trading. I too think it will come to at least parity. {quote} You are absolutely right that fundamental moves are unpredictable and that is why I will take exit from current long asap as no one can tell where the market is heading. IMO when market moves fundamentally it's better to stay aside. It's like the strongest stream of river. You must be an elephant to dare to cross it in opposite direction. Currently I see only downtrend....
Basically we are in agreement. My thought about another 1000 pips drop, however, is doubtful as mentioned in the previous post. A drop to the weekly support is likely. The 900 pips drop was overkilled at least.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,087
  • May 19, 2013 12:54am May 19, 2013 12:54am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} After his speech, AU moved up slightly.
Thanks DB, how about China April Housing Inflation Quickens? http://www.cnbc.com/id/100748009
  • #30,088
  • May 19, 2013 8:12am May 19, 2013 8:12am
Quoting DaddyBear
The trend is decided by the higher TF but it always starts form the lower one. This time, there is no exception for AU to act differently. When H1 shows the sigh of life, H4 and D1 will follow.
True, But the H1 can come to life and fail many times and keep the H4 and Daily moving the same direction without them reversing.............This is where traders get trapped........IMO
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5_19 aud live attempts.JPG Size: 112 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #30,089
  • May 19, 2013 8:19am May 19, 2013 8:19am
Quoting DaddyBear
{quote} This value is exceptionally low. Last time a similar extreme happened in June 2012. {image}
Your tan Desert is very low..............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5_17 tan desert very low.JPG Size: 130 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #30,090
  • May 19, 2013 8:20am May 19, 2013 8:20am
Quoting DaddyBear
The other indicator is also at exceptional high. Historically, this indicated a turning point. Although I cannot say the reversal is going to happen right away, it can reverse at any time from this point. {image}
and that is a daily or weekly chart?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #30,091
  • May 19, 2013 8:30am May 19, 2013 8:30am
Quoting tashkent
Grand picture, one of possibilities: {image}
Let's hope so for those underwater...........

I see an endless wave 2 going down.........

The Month , Week and Daily has just unloaded from it's highs..............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5_17 lets hope so.JPG Size: 102 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #30,092
  • May 19, 2013 8:38am May 19, 2013 8:38am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} True, But the H1 can come to life and fail many times and keep the H4 and Daily moving the same direction without them reversing.............This is where traders get trapped........IMO {image}
Exactly!
  • #30,093
  • May 19, 2013 9:14am May 19, 2013 9:14am
Quoting Yoes
{quote} Thanks DB, how about China April Housing Inflation Quickens? http://www.cnbc.com/id/100748009
May boost AU. Please see my previous post.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,094
  • May 19, 2013 9:19am May 19, 2013 9:19am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} True, But the H1 can come to life and fail many times and keep the H4 and Daily moving the same direction without them reversing.............This is where traders get trapped........IMO {image}
I agree. My point was a bounce in the H1 context could lead AU to H4 and D1 bounce as well. The bounce may be the prelude of a reversal.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,095
  • May 19, 2013 9:20am May 19, 2013 9:20am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Your tan Desert is very low.............. {image}
When the desert reaches its maximum, it's the beginning of a new green Oasis....
Your red arrow is unlikely based on my long term observation of DB's HGS....
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,096
  • May 19, 2013 9:22am May 19, 2013 9:22am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} and that is a daily or weekly chart?
Weekly
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,097
  • May 19, 2013 9:32am May 19, 2013 9:32am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Let's hope so for those underwater........... I see an endless wave 2
going down......... The Month , Week and Daily has just unloaded from it's highs..............

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368970145
If your EWC was correct, current wave would be wave 3 not 2. Everything has an end. It cannot be endless.
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,098
  • May 19, 2013 9:37am May 19, 2013 9:37am
Updated EWC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 27 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,099
  • May 19, 2013 9:42am May 19, 2013 9:42am
Alternative EWC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 32 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #30,100
  • Edited 9:54am May 19, 2013 9:43am | Edited 9:54am
Based on both EWC, I see a rebound is in the cards......
daddybearforex. com
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