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Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies

You talk the talk I walk the talk 8 replies

Attachments: Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun
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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

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need to get some weekend viewing in here
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
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I love this thread
Quoting Rufus
{image} need to get some weekend viewing in here

lol...
Come with me if you want to live....
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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
Quoting Rufus
{image} need to get some weekend viewing in here
Quoting Rufus
{image}
When I hover over the image it says "Click to enlarge", I think that is unnecessary
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
Quoting bogus
{quote} When I hover over the image it says "Click to enlarge", I think that is unnecessary

"Click to enlarge" To bad it doesn't work in the literal sense. Just think if you could double click
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
Quoting bogus
{quote} When I hover over the image it says "Click to enlarge", I think that is unnecessary
Lol...

You've removed the pain of the stagnant nature of my account..
Come with me if you want to live....
It's Friday!
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 1. I do not anticipate the 1.2980 level to hold because it is going to be a second test. Thus we could see price slice through that level and move right into the 1.2910 area where we could get a small bounce. If the shorts are real there would be a continuaton after price tests the 1.2980 area from below.
The first scenario of my last review on May 3rd played out. I have not anticipate a larger retrace higher which took place, but the market continued generally lower. Following is my review for today May 16th valid for the coming days:

The Euro kept moving lower despite strong US indices as anticipated on April 30th and May 3rd video reviews. The participation lower initially witnessed at the 1.3240 continued in the last 2 weeks. Moreover, below 1.2840 price confirmed the first target of the daily move lower at the 1.2525 area. I now anticipate price continuing into that target area in the two coming weeks.
What I was not able to anticipate was this reactionary move higher to push early bears out of the markets, but I do only swing trading (that’s where the money is) and don’t try to catch every intraday move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge) http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368729459




The above picture shows the two current scenarios:

Scenario 1. A continuation lower from current levels if the correction higher has ended bringing price into the 1.2810 area first and then the 1.2740 area for the second target.

Scenario 2. If the correction higher has not ended just yet, we could see price climbing into the 1.3010-20 area only to revert (there would be resistance of the 20-day SMA there, as well) and continue lower.

As I said, final destination where we could see initial profit taking is at the 1.2525-30 area, first target of the move originated a the 1.3240 area. I will remove my swing short position there.


As usual I am interested in your thoughts, suggestions and ideas.
On my blog there is an up to date video featuring the daily chart.

Have a great weekend -fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting bogus
It's Friday! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0VbbKarH_1U
Early on Saturday morning...

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Quoting fibstalker
The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year. Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Hello all, a quick update to the S&P500.
In my last review I mentioned a resumed move higher in the 1526 area but that came at a higher level:four points above at the 1530 (see in the below video a potential explanation for that). Anyway we are seeing price very close to that 1675 area of second target. I believe the target came at 1671, although we could still see 1677 area.

Let me show you my current perspective. The setup long showing participation at 1530 in mid of April (see picture below) hit the first target in the 1623 area and then the 1671 second target. I don't anticipate higher prices straight away now and the S&P500 could see profit taking. Price could stretch as high as 1677 area before we see a move lower. The reason for the 1677 level is explained on the video in my blog.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1369146193



These are the scenarios I could anticipate for the S&P500 going forward:

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.

Scenario 2a. If participation on the long side does not show up at around the 1632 area and price dips below 1620, we could witness a swift move lower into the next area of support where Program Trading will pick up price. That is down at the 1454 area.

Scenario 2b. We could still see a bounce at the 1632 area and then current highs retested and then a swift move lower. The trigger, again, will be price piercing below the 1620 level.

You can find a better explanation of these scenarios in my last blog's post: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Please let me have your ideas and suggestions.
Thank you

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting fibstalker
Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.
Hello all,
a quick update on ES setup. So far the e-mini is playing according to scenario 1 and we have targets above. I will keep following this scenario unless we hit the stop (move below 1622).

Therefore my latest analysis at: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/ is still valid.

I wanted to let you know that I have also started a thread called "Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior - by FibStalker" (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428085).

Moreover I have just released a free eBook titled: "Key Concepts to Correct Trading Behavior – A guide to relevant concepts for trading success in a market governed by High Frequency Trading (HFT) and Program Trading" which can be downloaded from my blog: http://elitefive.wordpress.com

Let me know what you think about it and if you find it helpful/useful.

Good luck.
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Quoting fibstalker
{quote} The first scenario of my last review on May 3rd played out. I have not anticipate a larger retrace higher which took place, but the market continued generally lower. Following is my review for today May 16th valid for the coming days: The Euro kept moving lower despite strong US indices as anticipated on April 30th and [url=http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/05/03/euro-dollar-analysis-forecast-may-3rd-2013-english-language/]May...
Hi all here is a link to my latest review of the Euro-dollar. In the video (hosted on my blog) I review the Euro from the weekly chart, down to the daily and 4-hour chart.

Euro in a box trade so far, between 1.2910 and 1.3240, with a potential to re-test the 1.3020 area during the week.

As usual, let me know what you think: http://wp.me/p2oF7p-D3

Thanks.
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Nice charts, thanks for the info...
@Mumuy: you are welcome.

Hello all,
an updated view on the Dollar Index. The current price dynamics is very important as price could repeat last year's move (now, repeats in history are very rare, but that could still happen). Let me show you what I mean:

The 84.70 area is the first target of the 81.40 area of support that found participation at the beginning of May (corresponding to Euro’s lower low at 1.3240). The 84.70 area lines up with previous highs in the Dollar Index which could suggest profit taking from those levels. If history repeats (it rarely does though) we could see something similar to what happen last year in the Dollar Index.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1201482&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1369689939

The above picture shows the two current scenarios I could anticipate:

Scenario 1. Price could continue lower into the 83 area of support and then violently bounce higher into the 84.70 area of 1st target of the 81.40 long entry area. Then price could fail the next traditional measured move higher and start a series of lower lows and lower highs.

Scenario 2. After trading the 83 area, price could continues above the previous 84.70 profit level into the 85.30 area, 1st target of the 83 area long setup. If that happens profit taking could be seen at those levels (and we would deal with that at the proper time).

On my blog you can find the video explaining the scenarios I have just provided above: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Let me know what you think.
Cheers

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
Hi, all. how are you today? i hope good all.
Quoting Fermy17
Hi, all. how are you today? i hope good all.
Not too bad thanks.And you?

Hello all,
this is today's (May 30th) review for the EUR/USD. Notice that I always reference the Euro FX currency futures because that is what I trade. The videos also relate to the futures contract unless differently stated:

Yesterday I wrote about a possibility for Euro to keep moving higher and today the Euro delivered. The Euro continued higher piercing that 1.3047 level, meaning that the offer coming in the area above the 1.3000 and to that level is now gone, out of the market. Price also dipped well within the next and last area of offer (before the larger 1.3240), starting in the 1.3020 area and ending above 1.3076.

If the 1.3078 level is pierced on the upside (and I anticipate that happening, but do not know it for sure) I will not be interested in swing shorts any more. Price would then be set to retest the 1.3240 for the second time, and we know that second tests are dangerous tests. The retest of that area is especially important because bears will need to decide whether they will keep their swing short positions initiated around the 1.3240 area, or will let the market continue higher, by covering shorts.

I won’t be there with my position to test that. I will exit shorts above 1.3078. If we break the 1.3078 level we are not likely to go up into the 1.3240 area in a straight fashion. We will move there not before we get some sort of price retrace. I have identified an important anchor (level from which I trace the Fibonacci studies to identify price structure and setups in the current market conditions) and that is the 1.2880 level. This level is being used by Program Trading at the moment and I suspect it will still be important after/if price breaks above 1.3078 and in case we continue higher into and through the 1.3240 area and price breaks the 1.3357 level.

If the 1.3357 level breaks bears will be all gone into the woods and the Euro will have again an opportunity and free way to move all the way into the 1.41 area in the coming weeks/months.

Here is the link to my blog where you can find the usual video-analysis and forecast for the Euro: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

I am always interested to your thoughts.

Thank you
Cheers
-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
hi everyone, hope you are good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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