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AUD/USD

  • #58,441
  • May 17, 2013 7:11pm May 17, 2013 7:11pm
got out of my short for the weekend...dont like holding position over weekend

but looking to short again come sunday night
  • #58,442
  • May 17, 2013 11:04pm May 17, 2013 11:04pm
This is how next week could play out if the us dollar remains strong. I will be shorting depending on PA at open.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-05-18 at 2.00.47 PM.png Size: 36 KB
  • #58,443
  • May 17, 2013 11:09pm May 17, 2013 11:09pm
I posted this chart on the 24/3/13. I gave the AUD 2 weeks to decide which way it's wanted to go to break it's range. Not bad timing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2013-03-25 at 12.38.59 AM.png Size: 25 KB
  • #58,444
  • May 18, 2013 12:05am May 18, 2013 12:05am
Yesterday thought that Friday retrace will happen but it didn't. Seems like Seasonal Behavior now take center stage.look at weekly chart of aud.usd and you all will see what is happening.

This Monday normally is the retrace of Friday. Then tue, wed and thu is the followed through trend. Then Friday retrace again.
  • #58,445
  • May 18, 2013 12:41am May 18, 2013 12:41am
AU has respected the fib levels quite well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 4 hr fib.jpg Size: 75 KB
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #58,446
  • May 18, 2013 1:15am May 18, 2013 1:15am
Quoting bogus
AU has respected the fib levels quite well. {image}
Hi, what do you think about Goldman's comment on Aud/Usd? Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746076

(asking your opinion)
  • #58,447
  • May 18, 2013 1:24am May 18, 2013 1:24am
Quoting bogus
AU has respected the fib levels quite well. {image}
not really

your fib levels are yet to be tested, they are of interest only if the lowest point holds, example, "if" pa was to keep dropping your levels will change
so your chart as shown does not show pa has respected fib levels, in fact it is in the process of setting levels for future watching and testing,
so your fib levels will be of interst if the lows hold and pa rallies to each level, then we will see for real if the levels "are respected"

dont want sound picky, but it is important to differentiate between setting fib levels and respecting fib levels
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #58,448
  • May 18, 2013 1:39am May 18, 2013 1:39am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} not really your fib levels are yet to be tested, they are of interest only if the lowest point holds, example, "if" pa was to keep dropping your levels will change so your chart as shown does not show pa has respected fib levels, in fact it is in the process of setting levels for future watching and testing, so your fib levels will be of interst if the lows hold and pa rallies to each level, then we will see for real if the levels "are respected" dont want sound picky, but it is important to differentiate between setting fib...
good points
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,449
  • May 18, 2013 2:12am May 18, 2013 2:12am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} not really your fib levels are yet to be tested, they are of interest only if the lowest point holds, example, "if" pa was to keep dropping your levels will change so your chart as shown does not show pa has respected fib levels, in fact it is in the process of setting levels for future watching and testing, so your fib levels will be of interst if the lows hold and pa rallies to each level, then we will see for real if the levels "are respected" dont want sound picky, but it is important to differentiate between setting fib...
You are quite right. Respected was the wrong word I just put the fib tool on to see how it looked and it fitted quite well. I don't really use fibs but fine them interesting, I was going over some charts and my past weeks trades.
Cheers
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #58,450
  • May 18, 2013 2:13am May 18, 2013 2:13am
Quoting D4pips
{quote} Hi, what do you think about Goldman's comment on Aud/Usd? Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746076 (asking your opinion)
Interesting, but I'm the wrong person to ask. I'm a total chartist.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #58,451
  • May 19, 2013 6:59am May 19, 2013 6:59am
Next major support level at 0.9576 but very heavy down trend would make it unwise to have a large long at these levels unless PA says otherwise
  • #58,452
  • May 19, 2013 9:20am May 19, 2013 9:20am
Quoting nahman
Next major support level at 0.9576 but very heavy down trend would make it unwise to have a large long at these levels unless PA says otherwise
Yeah, I do agree with this too but probably not so low, to me I'm look at 0.9630-0.9650 range. Especially we saw triple top breakout from the daily view with additional fact that the AU has been heading south for consecutive 7-8 days. Probably one of the major data would be the HSBC FLASH Manufacturing PMI that could cause the movement more volatile.

I would set and wait for bullish movement.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf AUDUSD 18MAY.pdf   314 KB | 241 downloads
Knowledge is powerful tool that we can ever have.
  • #58,453
  • May 19, 2013 9:42am May 19, 2013 9:42am
nice research, much appreciated!
so to summarize... youre looking for appx 300 pips of upside before the downtrend resumes...
any catalysts for that on fundamentals/headlines or is it purely on extreme sentiment/technicals etc?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #58,454
  • May 19, 2013 10:07am May 19, 2013 10:07am
I closed my longs at 1.0057 -230 pips
I am glad I did when I did.Looking to go long once this bottoms out.Greenbacks is severely overbought on all fronts.Won't last.
Do what you can to fund your account for possible huge profits going up.Opportunity like this does not come often if lucky twice a year.
Patiently waiting for now with my army in combat mode ready to strike.
http://www.louisvillejujitsu.com/Images/throw2.gif
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,455
  • May 19, 2013 10:13am May 19, 2013 10:13am
Where are you buying in at? At what level and tp?
  • #58,456
  • May 19, 2013 10:20am May 19, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Mozzy
Where are you buying in at? At what level and tp?
keenly waiting for 1st green line support 9578 in this range.TP is allow to run as high as it can go.Why constrain it when you will be paid to hold.
Important to understand that you must show restrain price could break 9578 area as well and head 2nd green line 93area.
Don't jump in unless you clearly see trend reversing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.weekly.png Size: 46 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #58,457
  • May 19, 2013 11:02am May 19, 2013 11:02am
Is it just me or is the safest play short USD/CAD? Think Ima load up on the short @ 1.0342 and see how it goes seems like for me this should go back to at least 1.021. Feel like its the safest trade for shorting USD.
  • #58,458
  • May 19, 2013 12:02pm May 19, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting Davit
I closed my longs at 1.0057 -230 pips I am glad I did when I did.Looking to go long once this bottoms out.Greenbacks is severely overbought on all fronts.Won't last. Do what you can to fund your account for possible huge profits going up.Opportunity like this does not come often if lucky twice a year. Patiently waiting for now with my army in combat mode ready to strike. {image}


I hear you brother, currently in the process of adding to my account so I can not only hold what I have further but also add to it. At the minute im just on the Kiwi but will look to long the Aussie too depending on where we are when the extra funds hit (hoping it will be before the next weekend).
Money never sleeps...
  • #58,459
  • May 19, 2013 12:06pm May 19, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting D4pips
{quote} Hi, what do you think about Goldman's comment on Aud/Usd? Link: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100746076 (asking your opinion)

I think 0.80 is an easy target but not yet. This will only happen when US Rates start to rise and we could be years away from that.
Money never sleeps...
  • #58,460
  • May 19, 2013 1:59pm May 19, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} I think 0.80 is an easy target but not yet. This will only happen when US Rates start to rise and we could be years away from that.
Theres one thing about Goldman Sachs.. Banks came out saying stuff AFTEr the move's happened...

does anyone recall GBPUSD? when GBPUSD reached 1.49 Goldman and many banks came out predicting GBPUSD to reach 1.40 but what happened is GBPUSD rebounded for 600 pips....
my idea is that these banks come out to say its gona reach 1.45 and bull shit, just so they can get many retail traders to short it, then they flush them out as market reversed...

Never trust the banks
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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